Thursday, April 8, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, April 8, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

April 8, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- U.S. and Russia Sign Nuclear Arms Pact
- China Agrees to UN Iran Talk
- Geithner Meets China's Qishan on Yuan
- Kyrgyz Opposition Temporarily Rules

Top of the Agenda: U.S. and Russia Sign Nuclear Arms Pact

U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a pact (NYT) to reduce their nuclear arsenals, a sign of improving relations between the two countries. The agreement, which must be ratified by lawmakers in both countries, would require each country to deploy a maximum of 1,550 strategic warheads, compared to the 2,200 allowed under the treaty signed by former President George W. Bush in 2002. Each country would be limited to 800 land-, air-, and sea-based launchers, compared to 1,600 allowed under the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. The leaders did not reach agreement on U.S. plans to build an anti-missile shield in Europe.

The White House wants (WashPost) a legislative vote by the end of the year, despite recent partisan rancor and a history of stalling on previous arms control agreements.

Analysis:

An Independent editorial says the new arms treaty is a sign of progress for Russia, but violence in Kyrgyzstan and Soviet-trained leadership in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan indicate turmoil is still brewing further south.

A Korea Times editorial says the United States needs to take a more active role in denuclearizing North Korea.

On the Daily Beast, CFR's Michael Levi says that while President Obama's plan to reduce nuclear weapons is generally a step in the right direction, a complete reduction of nuclear dangers will depend on efforts largely beyond the new strategy's scope.

Background

Check out expert analysis and background resources from CFR on nuclear nonproliferation, security, and treaties.

MIDDLE EAST: China Agrees to UN Iran Talk

China agreed to meet (AP) with the United States, Britain, Russia, and France to discuss possible new sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program.

A consensus seems to be growing for a resolution punishing the economic activities of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards, which control much of Iran's domestic and foreign economic activity, says expert Kenneth Katzman.

Turkey-Israel: Relations between Turkey and Israel further deteriorated (WSJ) when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan described Israel as "the principal threat to peace" in the Middle East.

PACIFIC RIM: Geithner Meets China's Qishan on Yuan

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner meets with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan Thursday to discuss (SydneyMorningHerald) a revaluation of the yuan.

Thailand: Thailand's government cracked down (FT) on media outlets a day after a state of emergency was declared to mitigate mass protests wracking central Bangkok.

Read CFR's Asia Unbound blog, featuring timely analysis from CFR's Asia experts.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Kyrgyz Opposition Temporarily Rules

Following gruesome protests against repressive rule in Kyrgyzstan, which forced President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to flee the capital, an opposition leader said a transitional government had taken over (NYT) and would remain in power for six months.

Sri Lanka: Sri Lankans voted for a new parliament, as President Mahinda Rajapaksa looks to consolidate (WSJ) his political power after being reelected in January and jailing opposition leader Sarath Fonseka.

AFRICA: Sudan's Umma Party to Boycott Elections

Sudan's Umma Party, one of the main opposition parties, said it would boycott (Reuters) next week's presidential, legislative, and gubernatorial elections, further compromising Sudan's first multi-party elections in twenty-four years.

This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memo presents the likely triggers of renewed civil war in Sudan and discusses the U.S. policy options for preventing it from happening and mitigating its consequences.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab fighters, linked to al-Qaeda, took over (BBC) a UN compound in Somalia's south, seizing food supplies, equipment, and the local airstrip.

In this Council Special Report, Bronwyn Bruton gives a realistic assessment of U.S. and international interests and capabilities in Somalia.

AMERICAS: Brazil and U.S. to Sign Defense Pact

Brazil and the United States will sign (MercoPress) a defense-cooperation agreement next week, the first major bilateral military cooperation agreement since 1977.

Venezuela-Uruguay: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez offered to help Uruguayan President Jose Mujica expand (AP) a refinery and supply it with crude oil. The leaders signed accords pledging to deepen trade and energy ties.

EUROPE: Greek Banks Face Capital Flight

Greece's four largest banks are asking (FT) for government support to increase liquidity after two days of record-level spreads on ten-year Greek bonds.

TRANSNATIONAL: EMERGING MARKET DEBT OUTPACES U.S.

Emerging-market bonds returned (Bloomberg) 11.3 percent this year, compared to 2.79 percent for U.S. company bonds, a sign that developing countries are growing faster than the biggest global economies.

 

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