[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, July 01, 2010

 

July 1, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Petraeus Addresses NATO - Top IAEA Official Resigns - Latin America Seeing Robust Growth - Merkel's Candidate Ekes Out Victory Top of the Agenda: Petraeus Addresses NATO General David Petraeus, the new commander of the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, addresses the North Atlantic Council (AP), NATO's top decision-making body, Thursday. Petraeus was unanimously confirmed (BBC) as the mission's commander by the U.S. Senate Wednesday. This week, Petraeus described Afghanistan's security situation as tenuous, saying it will get "tougher before it gets easier." Petraeus may not be the only change in command in Afghanistan (NYT). The two top U.S. civilian officials in the war also face an uncertain future with at least one senior White House official suggesting General Stanley McChrystal's departure could be used as an excuse to clean house. Administration officials have begun floating the idea of replacing U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry with Ryan C. Crocker, the former ambassador in Iraq who created a close partnership with Petraeus during Iraq's troop surge. As for Richard Holbrooke, the administration's special representative to the region, U.S. officials said his job was more secure than it was six months ago. But both Holbrooke and Eikenberry have been instructed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to take a hard look at their civilian team, which critics say contains several difficult personalities that may not mesh well. Analysis: CFR's Stephen Biddle says the Afghanistan situation is "uncertain" and hard to evaluate. In this First Take, CFR's President Richard Haass says it was wise for the president to act swiftly to replace his theater commander and he should act no less decisively in reviewing policy on Afghanistan. Background: In this podcast, Afghanistan's minister of mines and two World Bank experts discuss how to manage the country's potentially significant cache of mineral resources. Watch President Obama's speech on the nomination of General Petraeus as top commander for the mission in Afghanistan In this December 2009 CFR meeting transcript, Richard C. Holbrooke, U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, discusses U.S. policy in Afghanistan. MIDDLE EAST: Top IAEA Official Resigns Olli Heinonen, head of probes (FT) into Iran and Syria for the International Atomic Energy Agency, is leaving his position for personal reasons. Iran: Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said in a letter to EU foreign ministers that their decision to impose tighter sanctions on Tehran (Reuters) over its nuclear program may have "dire consequences." Gregory L. Schulte in Foreign Affairs examines whether or not it's too late to convince North Korea and Iran to dismantle their nuclear programs. And a number of experts weigh in on deterring a nuclear Iran in this CFR series of reports. Israel-Palestine: Ahead of the upcoming meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas warned that a growing number of Palestinians want to abandon a two-state solution (Haaretz). This CFR Crisis Guide examines the history of the struggle between Israel and Palestine. PACIFIC RIM: South Korea Rejects Talks with the North South Korea rejected North Korea's proposal (AFP) for direct military talks on the sinking of a South Korean warship, saying the issue should be addressed under the armistice which ended the Korean War. CFR's Nicole Lewis says China is unlikely to exert more pressure on North Korea, so Washington should redirect its own role in brokering inter-Korean peace and engaging Pyongyang. Philippines: Former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo said she would push for changes to the country's constitution to open up the economy (Reuters) to more foreign investment, creating a potential distraction for the economic reform agenda of the new government of Benigno Aquino. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Karzai Sends Officers to Train in Pakistan Afghan President Hamid Karzai will send a group of military officers to train in Pakistan (WashPost), a major policy shift that Afghan and Pakistani officials said signals deepening relations. CFR's Daniel Markey says Pakistan's latest moves to influence Afghanistan, including possible brokering of talks with Taliban militants, could pose difficulties for U.S. stabilization efforts. Afghanistan: The Taliban has refused to enter into negotiations (Telegraph) with NATO until foreign forces withdraw. Kyrgyzstan: The United Nations refugee agency says nearly all the Uzbek refugees have returned (VOA) after fleeing ethnic clashes but the crisis is far from over. AFRICA: Somali Insurgents Demand Anniversary Boycott A Somali insurgent Islamist group warned of reprisals (AFP) if Somalis attend the country's fiftieth independence anniversary celebrations. DRC: King Albert II of Belgium will join African leaders (Guardian), including Jacob Zuma and Robert Mugabe, to celebrate the fiftieth anniversary of Congo's independence from Belgium rule at a ceremony in Kinshasa. AMERICAS: Latin America Seeing Robust Growth While the United States and Europe contend with huge deficits and threats to a fragile economic recovery, Latin America is experiencing robust economic growth (NYT). This CFR Backgrounder examines Peru, the fastest growing country in Latin America over the last decade, and notes despite huge gains in economic stability, the country still faces environmental and governance challenges. In Foreign Affairs, Abraham F. Lowenthal says the Obama administration has not yet delivered on the promising new policy for Latin America and the Caribbean it announced last year, but it still can. United States: Russian and U.S. officials sought to shield improving ties (Reuters) from fallout of the espionage incident in which ten Russians in the United States were arrested for spying. EUROPE: Merkel's Candidate Ekes Out Victory German Chancellor Angela Merkel won a victory (WSJ) Wednesday when her candidate Christian Wulff won the presidency in a closely watched election, but the need for a third round of voting was still an embarrassment for Merkel. Cyprus: Police are searching for Christopher Robert Metsos, the eleventh suspect (AP) implicated in the U.S.-Russia spy ring case, who vanished after skipping bail.

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