Thursday, April 29, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, April 29, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

April 29, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Merkel Urges Faster Greek Rescue
- Ahmadinejad to Attend NPT Conference
- Pentagon Says Afghan Instability Leveling
- Gulf Oil Spill Bigger Than Thought

Top of the Agenda: Merkel Urges Faster Greek Rescue

German Chancellor Angela Merkel--who previously stalled on dealing with Greece's debt crisis--pressed to accelerate negotiations (NYT) with the Greek government on the rescue package to safeguard the euro. The costs of not acting grew as rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the debt of Greece, Portugal, and Spain, raising fears about the crisis spreading through Europe. Merkel has been trying not to upset the German population--which largely opposes the Greek bailout--ahead of May elections.

German legislators said after a private meeting with IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet that Greece would need (FT) financial aid of 100 to 120 billion euros over the next three years. The initial pledge of 45 billion euros would only cover the first year. Strauss-Kahn would not confirm the higher figure.

Analysis:

In the Independent, Adrian Hamilton says the failure of European leaders, especially Merkel, to act with resolution "has spooked the markets and made them lose faith with Greece's ability to get out of the hole."

On the National Post's Full Comment blog, Steven Earle, a former chief executive operating in Greece, says Greek politicians see the financial aid coming to them as income, not as debt, making the bailout untenable.

S&P's decision to downgrade Greek debt to "junk" may lead to softened pre-conditions for an IMF-EU bailout and a swifter European response, says CFR's Marc Levinson.

MIDDLE EAST: Ahmadinejad to Attend NPT Conference

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to attend (Reuters) the Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference starting Monday. Diplomats anticipate his agenda, along with that of Egypt, will be fighting the fact that while Western powers prohibit developing nations' right to nuclear technology, they Israel's growing nuclear capacity.

Iraq: U.S. officials are openly questioning (CSMonitor) the impact of Iraq's chaotic post-election process on U.S.-Iraq relations--particularly U.S. plans to pull out combat forces this summer.

A judicial ruling in Iraq could delay the formation of a new government until the fall, increasing the risk of a planned U.S. drawdown of troops by the end of August, says CFR's Brett McGurk.

PACIFIC RIM: Thai Yellow Shirts Add to Chaos

Thailand's latent Yellow Shirt activists demanded military action (AP) against anti-government Red Shirt protesters to end chaos in the capital, which added to street disruptions around Bangkok.

China: Sales of passenger cars and other light vehicles grew nearly 50 percent in China last year, boosting (WSJ) China's position above the United States' as the world's biggest market.

Read CFR's Asia Unbound blog, featuring timely analysis from CFR's Asia experts.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pentagon Says Afghan Instability Leveling

A Pentagon status report on the war in Afghanistan said the country's instability had "leveled off" (WashPost) since January and that the number of Afghans who support their government's progress has increased.

A pending American military offensive in southern Afghanistan is buoying hopes for a return to government control, but New York Times reporter David Rohde says success could be short-lived.

Pakistan: Pakistani Taliban chief Hakimullah Mehsud is still alive, according to Pakistani officials. He survived (WSJ) a U.S. drone strike earlier this year that the government previously suspected killed him.

AFRICA: Nigeria's Jonathan Sacks Election Chief

Acting Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan ordered the removal (Vanguard) of election chief Maurice Iwu, widely criticized for allowing chaos and fraud in the country's last election.

Chad: More than one hundred rebels and nine government soldiers were killed (Reuters) in two gun battles in eastern Chad this week.

AMERICAS: Gulf Oil Spill Bigger Than Thought

The massive oil spill into the Gulf of Mexico is five times as big (AP) as officials originally estimated. The U.S. coast guard and BP, the oil rig's operator, are divided on how to manage the problem.

Mexico: Arizona's tough new immigration law may not do much to prevent (NYT) Mexican immigrants from crossing the border, the New York Times reports.

EUROPE: Brown Downplays Gaffe in Election Run Up

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and his governing Labour party sought to limit (Telegraph) the fallout from a campaign-trail gaffe. Seven days before elections, Brown called a 65-year-old voter "bigoted" in response to her question on government politics.

TRANSNATIONAL: UN Chief Seeks Stronger Nuclear Pact

Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called for renewed commitments (NYT) toward disarmament and for eradicating nuclear weapons in the Middle East.
 

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