Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, July 30, 2009

Thursday, July 30, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, July 30, 2009

July 30, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

-Gates says Iraq withdrawal might be accelerated.
-India PM defends Pakistan talks.
-Nigerian violence continues.
-IMF to boost lending to poor countries.

Top of the Agenda: Possible Acceleration of Withdrawal

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says there is a chance of a “modest acceleration” (WSJ) in the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. Gates said Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, told him the security situation is better than they thought it would be.

Gates said there is a possibility that 5,000 troops could leave as early as December 2009 (NYT), in addition to the two other brigades 10,000 troops already scheduled to withdraw this year. Still, the majority of U.S. troops is set to stay until after Iraq’s January elections.

According to U.S.-Iraq security agreements, the United States must withdraw its combat forces by end of August 2010. It plans to leave 30,000 to 50,000 troops till the end of 2011 to help with training and other support needs.

Before leaving Iraq, Gates met with newly-reelected Kurdish President Massoud Barzani (AFP) and other leaders, and urged them to try to settle their main political disputes while U.S. forces are still there.

Analysis:
In a recent op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, CFR’s Daniel Senor said there is “pressure building within the Pentagon to cut forces in Iraq even faster than planned to send more troops to Afghanistan."

In an interview with CFR, Daniel P. Serwer, who served as executive director of the Baker-Hamilton Commission on Iraq, says the "serious" crisis between Kurdistan and the central Iraqi government "needs to be resolved" to some degree before the U.S. troops leave.

Background:
This CFR Backgrounder looks at the U.S.-Iraq security agreements.

MIDEAST: Iran Arrests

Iranian police arrested mourners (BBC) today who had gathered at a cemetery in Tehran to commemorate those killed in post-election violence. Opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, defying a government ban to hold the memorial service, had called for the ceremony to be held at the grave of Neda Agha-Soltan. Agha-Soltan, a young woman shot dead on the sidelines of a demonstration after last month’s election, has become a symbol of the anti-government movement.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on the Iranian government to free prisoners (VOA) detained during last month’s political protests, amid reports that the detainees have been abused, and some even killed.

PACIFIC RIM: China to Reduce Executions

China says it will reduce its use of the death penalty (NYT) to execute only "an extremely small number" of people. Human rights groups have criticized China, claiming the country executes more people than any other country in the world.

After the latest U.S.-China high-level dialogue with China on economic, security, and environmental issues, CFR's Elizabeth Economy says Washington should prioritize effective rule of law in China.

This CFR Backgrounder looks at the justice system in China.

North Korea: UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed concern (Xinhua) over North Korea’s recent assertion that it will not return to the Six-Party Talks on its nuclear program. Ban said he would welcome bilateral talks between the United States and North Korea, however.

Expert Roberta Cohen says Washington should develop a strategy toward North Korea, linking human rights to economic and energy issues.

This CFR Backgrounder looks at the Six-Party Talks.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India PM Defends Peace Talks

Facing criticism, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh defended his decision to engage (Hindu) in peace talks with Pakistan, saying the only alternative would have been to go to war. Singh also said Pakistan has made progress in its investigation of last November’s terrorist attacks in Mumbai.

Pakistan: The New York Times reports that Pakistan’s air force is improving its ability to target militants.

Kyrgyzstan: Police broke up a protest rally by Kyrgyzstan’s political opposition, arresting some 40 people (RFE/RL). The opposition claims the results of last week’s reelection of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev were fraudulent.

AFRICA: Nigerians Flee Violence

Thousands of people are fleeing their homes (al-Jazeera) amid continued violence between Nigerian security forces and members of the Boko Haram Islamic rebel group. The army soldiers raided a Boko Haram compound in the northern city of Maiduguri, causing some 1,000 people to run from their homes. An estimated 3,000 others have fled as well.

North Africa: German companies have a plan to meet 15 percent of European electricity needs from solar thermal power plants (IPS) installed in North Africa. The plants would also provide energy to North African countries.

AMERICAS: Guantanamo Prisoner to be Released

The Obama administration said it would free Mohammed Jawad, who has been imprisoned at the Guantanamo Bay detention facility since 2003. Jawad was arrested in Afghanistan in December 2002, and accused of injuring two U.S. soldiers and an interpreter by throwing a grenade at a jeep. A judge ruled that his confession, which his lawyers alleged was obtained by Afghan officials through torture, was inadmissible (AP).

This CFR Backgrounder looks at legal and security issues surrounding the closure of the prison at Guantanamo.

Honduras: The U.S. government canceled the visas (WashPost) of four officials of the interim military Honduran government came to power last month in following a military coup. The move on the part of the United States was meant to pressure the Honduran regime to reinstate ousted President Manuel Zelaya.

EUROPE: Spain to Bolster Troops in Afghanistan

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said the country could increase the number of troops (NYT) on assignment in Afghanistan. Spain already has about 800 troops in Afghanistan. It recently sent an additional contingent of 450 soldiers to provide extra security ahead of the August 20 presidential election.

Russia: Russia plans to begin oil exploration (RIA Novosti) in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Cuba, after signing an agreement with the Cuban government. Under the deal, Russia also granted Cuba a $150 million loan to buy construction and agricultural equipment.

TRANSNATIONAL: IMF to Boost Funds

The International Monetary Fund said it will boost lending (Reuters) by up to $17 billion to poor countries between now and 2014, and will suspend interest on some loans until 2011. IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the measures "should prevent millions of people from falling into poverty."

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