Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, September 21, 2009

Monday, September 21, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, September 21, 2009

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September 21, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Gen. McChrystal report on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan public.
- Japan to invest in Afghanistan.
- CIA is expanding its presence in Afghanistan.
- British PM Brown to meet Libyan leader Qaddafi in New York.

Top of the Agenda: McChrystal Report Made Public

Gen. Stanley McChrystal's review of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, submitted to U.S. President Barack Obama on August 30, said failure to reverse course (NYT) in the coming year could lead to a situation where "defeating the insurgency is no longer possible."

The Washington Post has published the confidential report, which Obama and his national security advisers have been reviewing. In the review, McChrystal calls for more troops in Afghanistan, and warns that without the level of manpower needed, the U.S. military effort there will end in defeat . Though McChrystal has not yet requested a specific number of additional troops, Pentagon and military officials say he is expected to propose various options, from an increase of ten thousand to 45,000, according to the New York Times.

In several interviews on Sunday, Obama said he will not send more troops to Afghanistan before ensuring that the U.S. strategy there is effective. "I don't want to put the resource question before the strategy question," Obama said on CNN's State of the Union.

Analysis

On Foreign Policy, Small Wars Journal's Robert Haddick says Obama likely believes U.S. political support for the war in Afghanistan will evaporate if incumbent Afghan President Hamid Karzai's reelection is not considered legitimate.

CFR's Stephen Biddle discusses U.S. policy in light of his recent trip to Afghanistan as a member of McChrystal's strategic assessment group, in this Academic Conference Call.

NPR looks at obstacles facing Obama's plan to increase the number of U.S. civilian experts working in Afghanistan-including the difficulty in convincing qualified civilians to go.

Background

McChrystal's full report is available here (PDF).

MIDEAST: Israeli, Palestinian Leaders, Obama to Meet

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will meet with U.S. President Barack Obama (WSJ) this week while in the United States for the UN General Assembly.

Iran: Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Western allegations (Gulf Daily News) that Iran aims to develop nuclear weapons. "We fundamentally reject nuclear weapons and prohibit the production and the use of nuclear weapons," Khamenei said in a speech broadcast on state television.

Israel: Israeli tank fire reportedly killed two Palestinian militants (Ynet) and wounded three others on the Gaza border. The Israeli military said the group was placing a bomb at the border fence.

PACIFIC RIM: Japan to Aid Afghanistan

New Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada said the country might boost development aid (AFP) to Afghanistan when its naval refueling mission in the region ends in January. Japan also plans to host a high-level meeting (Japan Times) in November on development and security in Afghanistan.

Philippines: Government forces clashed with members of the Abu Sayyaf militant Islamic group when troops attempted to serve arrest warrants for three Abu Sayyaf commanders. The commanders are believed to have been involved in the kidnapping (Philippine Star) of three workers of the International Committee of the Red Cross last January. An Abu Sayyaf militant was killed and five Philippine soldiers were injured in the conflict.

A CFR Backgrounder profiles Abu Sayyaf.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: CIA Expands in Afghanistan

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is significantly expanding its presence in Afghanistan, the Los Angeles Times reports. According to U.S. officials, the CIA "surge" will make its station in Afghanistan among the largest in the agency's history.

India: At least twenty-four Naxalite insurgents were killed in a battle with security forces (al-Jazeera) in India's central Chhattisgarh state. One police officer was also killed when Naxalites retaliated to a raid on an arms factory it controlled in Singamadagu.

AFRICA: Somali Insurgency

Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, leader of the radical Hezb al-Islam militant group in Somalia, called for more suicide attacks (Daily Nation) against African Union peacekeeping forces in the country. Twenty-one people, including seventeen peacekeepers, died last week in a double car bomb attack.

DRC: The Democratic Republic of Congo sent Gregoire Ndahimana, a former mayor accused of orchestrating a massacre (BBC) of some two thousand Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994, to the International Criminal Tribunal on Rwanda in Tanzania. Ndahimana was arrested in August. His family will be deported to Rwanda.

AMERICAS: Afghans Arrested in Terror Probe

The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation arrested three men from Afghanistan in the United States in connection to an alleged terror plot (Bloomberg) . One of the suspects, Najibullah Zazi, told authorities he received weapons training at an al-Qaeda facility in Pakistan last year.

Bolivia: The United States will shut down some of its democracy promotion programs (AP) in Bolivia. Officials from Bolivia's leftist government have said that some of the funding for those programs has been diverted to support the country's opposition. U.S. officials deny that allegation.

EUROPE: START's Future

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said he believes the United States and Russia are likely to reach a new strategic arms reduction treaty (RIA Novosti) by the end of 2009 . The 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-I) expires on December 5.

The text of START-I is available here.

United Kingdom: UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown will meet with Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi (Telegraph) on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on Thursday . It will be the first meeting between the two heads of state since the recent release of Lockerbie bomber Abdel Basset al-Megrahi.

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