Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, September 28, 2009

Monday, September 28, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, September 28, 2009

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September 28, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Iran test fires missiles.
- NATO powers expect Karzai to remain in power.
- Family reunions across the Korean border.
- Germany's Merkel reelected.

Top of the Agenda: Iran's Missile Tests

Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it successfully test-fired (Iranian Labour News Agency) long-range missiles amid threats from the West of new sanctions over its nuclear program. The show of force comes days after Iran admitted it had secretly been constructing a second nuclear facility.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told CNN Iran faces "severe additional sanctions" over the nuclear site, and expressed his continued preference for diplomacy over military options in dealing with Iran.

The New York Times reports the U.S.-designed sanctions package on Iran could include a cutoff of investments to the country's oil-and-gas industry and restrictions on additional Iranian banks.

Analysis:

CFR's Michael Levi says the disclosure of the clandestine uranium enrichment plant heightens suspicions that the country is seeking nuclear weapons capability, and raises new pressure for tougher sanctions.

In the Washington Post, CFR's Ray Takeyh says the Helsinki Accords of 1975 could serve as a model during the upcoming negotiations between Iran and the West. Takeyh says the United States should insist on discussing the nuclear program, Iran's sponsorship of terrorism, its interference in the affairs of its neighbors, and its human rights record.

Background:

A new CFR Backgrounder looks at the various sanctions imposed on Iran over the years.

Reuters details the capabilities of the Iranian military in this Factbox.

MIDEAST: Israeli Airstrike

Israeli officials said three Palestinian members of the militant group Islamic Jihad were killed in an Israeli airstrike on the Gaza Strip. A military spokesman said the strike prevented the militants (Haaretz) from launching further rockets into Israel.

PACIFIC RIM: Inter-Korean Family Reunions

Hundreds of South and North Koreans living on opposite sides of the border met with family members in a reunion orchestrated by the two governments (Yonhap). The BBC reports the resumption of the reunion, a program suspended two years ago because of political tension, is being seen as a sign of a possible thaw in relations.

China: The Wall Street Journal looks at China's plans to build dozens of new coal-fired power plants alongside wind farms.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: NATO Support for Karzai

The United States and its NATO allies told Afghan President Hamid Karzai's government that they expect him to remain in office for another five-year term (WashPost). Karzai's hold on power remains uncertain, as results from the country's August presidential elections have not been finalized yet.

Herat: Afghan Energy and Water Minister Mohammad Ismail Khan narrowly escaped (Quqnoos) an assassination attempt when a roadside bomb exploded in the western city of Herat. At least four civilians were killed. The Taliban took responsibility for the attack.

AFRICA: Somali Executions

Militants from the al-Shabaab Islamic group publicly executed (AP) two Somali men they said were spies for the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the African Union. The men were shot by a firing squad in Mogadishu.

CFR profiles al-Shabaab in this Backgrounder.

South Africa: The Los Angeles Times looks at South Africa's struggle to curb its high crime rate.

AMERICAS: Honduras Expels OAS Officials

Honduras' de facto government expelled personnel (AP) from the Organization of American States who arrived in the capital Tegucigalpa to set up mediation to solve the country's political crisis. The government also placed a ten-day ultimatum (Reuters) on Brazil to decide what it will do with deposed President Manuel Zelaya, who has taken refuge in the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva rejected the ultimatum.

South America-Africa: Nearly thirty South American and African leaders gathered in Venezuela over the weekend for the second South America-Africa (ASA) summit, where Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi called for increased military cooperation (Times of London) between the regions. The leaders also agreed to launch a development bank (MercoPress) for South America, the Banco del Sur, with an initial investment of $20 billion.

EUROPE: Merkel Reelected

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrat party won reelection (Deutsche Welle) in a national vote Sunday. Merkel meets today with Guido Westerwelle, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), to set up plans for negotiations on a new coalition government.

Turkish-Armenian Ties: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey will sign an agreement (BBC) to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia on October 10. The relationship between the countries has long been strained over the mass killings of Armenians under Turkish Ottoman rule.

Portugal: Portugal's center-left Socialist Party retained power (Press Association) in the country's elections, with 36.5 percent of the vote compared with center-right Social Democratic Party's 29 percent. Prime Minister Jose Socrates has said he will spearhead major public works projects amid gloomy forecasts for the country's economy.

TRANSNATIONAL: IMF Self- Evaluation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) found in a self-evaluation that it acted effectively (WSJ) in fighting the global recession, especially in Eastern Europe. The review looked at fifteen IMF loan programs approved since September 2008.

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