[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, November 24, 2009

 

November 24, 2009 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Note to Readers: The Daily News Brief will not publish again until Monday, November 30. -Global economic leaders diverge on recovery policies. -Peres indicates progress on Israeli hostage negotiations. -Singh raises concerns over U.S.-Pakistan ties in Washington. -Eight men charged in Somali terror case in Minnesota. Top of the Agenda: Recession Questions Global leaders are diverging on the most appropriate stimulus measures as the global economy teeters on the brink of recovery. Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Monday that the global economy remained vulnerable (FT) to shocks and policy mis-steps and that fiscal and monetary stimulus needed to continue. He said "It is too early for a general exit. We recommend erring on the side of caution, as exiting too early is costlier than exiting too late." U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also said last week that inflation was not an immediate threat and that interest rates would likely remain low for "an extended period." Meanwhile, European Central Bank officials have said that implementing exit strategies too late could lead to future crises. The Wall Street Journal reports that the differing approaches of the U.S. and U.K. central banks will likely be compared on December 3, when both Trichet is expected to unveil details of the European Central Bank's exit strategy and Bernanke is scheduled to appear before the U.S. Senate for his confirmation hearings. So far, the Fed has focused on asset purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while the ECB's approach has centered on unlimited loans to banks. A move by Bernanke to emphasize Fed willingness to keep policy loose as Trichet "heads for the exit" could ultimately fuel a rise in the euro and depress euro-zone exports. Analysis In the New York Times, Paul Krugman says that the Obama administration has been intimidated on his economic policy to pay more attention to debt than to adequate stimulus measures and unemployment. In Foreign Affairs, Fred Bergsten says the global economic crisis has revealed the folly of large U.S. budget and trade deficits, as well as of the strong dollar that makes them possible. He says the United States must balance the budget, stimulate private saving, and embrace a declining dollar. Background In a CFR meeting, Richard Posner and Tim Ferguson discuss fiscal and monetary policy in the United States. A CFR Backgrounder examines the U.S. economic stimulus plan. MIDDLE EAST: Israeli Hostage After meetings in Cairo with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Israeli President Shimon Peres said there has been progress (al-Jazeera) in efforts to release Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit captured by Hamas three years ago. Iraq: Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi has indicated (AP) he will veto an election law for a second time, delaying scheduled elections in January. PACIFIC RIM: Philippines Violence Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo declared a state of emergency (GlobalTimes) in two southern Philippine provinces after forty-five bodies of abducted hostages captured in election-related violence were recovered. Japan: In the Far Eastern Economic Review reports that Japan's struggling economy is grappling with a new breed of Japanese consumer that is less attracted to luxury goods, more budget conscious, and less brand loyal. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India-U.S. Visit During meetings with the Obama administration in Washington, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh raised concerns (TimesofIndia) over the United States' provision of military supplies and funds to Pakistan, which he said have been used against India in the past. In a CFR meeting, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said his government had made efforts to improve relations with Pakistan and that India does not want Pakistan to fail. Aghanistan: Obama will likely announce his decision (WashPost) about sending additional troops to Afghanistan in a national address on December 1, according to U.S. administration officials. AFRICA: Somali Terror Case The U.S. attorney for Minnesota announced terrorism charges (Star Tribune) against eight men in Minneapolis in one of the most far-reaching counterterrorism probes since 9/11. Democratic Republic of Congo: Congolese President Joseph Kabila has proposed constitutional amendments suggesting he is moving away from democracy and toward dictatorship, the Economist reports. AMERICAS: U.S. Climate Target The United States says it will offer a near-term emission reduction target (WashPost) in an effort to reach a comprehensive climate change deal in Copenhagen next month, as long as other major emitters do the same. Mexico: Major ratings company Fitch has lowered its rating of Mexico's debt (WSJ) to two notches above junk due to its declining oil production, recession and drug violence. EUROPE: UK Iraq War Inquiry The UK government has launched its long-awaited public inquiry (Telegraph) into the origins of the Iraq war and Britain's involvement. Russia: A report by Europe's human rights commissioner says Russian authority must do more to tackle corruption (DeutscheWelle) and protect individual freedoms in Chechnya. TRANSNATIONAL: Global Food Crisis The world may be approaching another global food shock due to increasing food prices and trade protectionism, the Economist reports.

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