Tuesday, December 22, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, December 22, 2009

 

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 22, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- China rebuffs criticism on Copenhagen.
- Israel moves toward prisoner swap deal.
- Public approval falls in Japan.
- U.S. to announce cybersecurity chief.

Top of the Agenda: China Criticized for Copenhagen

China rebuffed (FT) criticism by international leaders that it blocked an agreement on emissions targets at climate talks in Copenhagen, as experts continue to assess the impact of the agreement reached. On Monday, Britain's climate change and energy secretary Ed Miliband wrote in the Guardian that China is responsible for blocking agreement on emissions targets. He wrote, "We did not get an agreement on 50 percent reductions in global emissions by 2050 or on 80 percent reductions by developed countries. Both were vetoed by China, despite the support of a coalition of developed and the vast majority of developing countries."

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded (GlobalTimes) that Britain's remarks had a political bent. "Their purpose is to shift their responsibility of helping developing countries and to create tensions in China's relations with other nations. Such a scheme won't succeed," foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang said. "We urge them to correct their mistakes, earnestly fulfill their duty in helping developing countries, and not to disturb the international cooperation on curbing climate change."

Analysts consider China to be one of the few winners from the Copenhagen Accord, since it showed its diplomatic force and avoided any new commitments that could put a break on its development.

Analysis:

On ForeignPolicy.com, John Lee examines why China refuses international scrutiny of its emissions controls and economic policies.

On the National Post's "Full Comment" blog, Kelly McParland says Copenhagen "was an epic display of international grandstanding" but that China and the United States "focused on what was possible" and "worked out an agreement both could live with."

Background:

A CFR Backgrounder examines Copenhagen's many agendas.

MIDDLE EAST: Israel Prisoner Swap

Israel is nearing a deal (al-Jazeera) with Hamas to potentially swap hundreds of Palestinian prisoners with an Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who was captured in a cross-border raid by Palestinian fighters in June 2006 and has been held by Hamas since then.

Iran: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dismissed claims (Reuters) that Tehran is designing an atomic bomb trigger.

In an interview, CFR's Ray Takeyh examines the unsettled nature of Iranian politics, pointing to a fractured opposition and a regime divided on how to proceed on talks over its nuclear program.

PACIFIC RIM: China-Taiwan Relations

China's chief negotiator for Taiwan affairs Chen Yunlin arrived in Taiwan (GlobalTimes) for a new round of high-level trade talks, as Taiwanese pro-independence protesters continued to rally against his visit.

Japan: Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's government, which took power in September with an approval rate above 70 percent, has seen its public support plummet (JapanTimes) to around 50 percent amid public fears about the Japanese economy and Hatoyama's policy pledges.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: U.S.-Pakistan Relations

The Guardian reports that, according to a former NATO official, U.S. Special Forces conducted multiple clandestine raids as part of a secret war inside Pakistan's tribal areas, where Washington is trying to expand its drone attacks.

Nepal: The United States passed a law denying financial aid (TimesofIndia) to the Nepal government amid increasing pressure on the country's army to meet its human rights obligations.

AFRICA: Zimbabwe Crisis

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and rival Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai agreed on commissions (Reuters) to reform the media and electoral policies, a key issue that has heightened tensions over their power-sharing deal.

Guinea: A leaked UN report recommends that Guinea's military ruler Moussa Dadis Camara be charged with crimes against humanity (BBC) over a massacre of roughly156 protesters.

In an Expert Brief, CFR's John Campbell writes that the worsening political crisis in Guinea will require stronger UN involvement and greater efforts on the part of African leaders to avoid what could become a civil war and a massive humanitarian crisis.

AMERICAS: U.S. Cybersecurity

The Obama administration is expected to announce (WSJ) that former eBay and Microsoft security official Howard Schmidt will become the White House cybersecurity chief.

Columbia: Colombian president Alvaro Uribe is unclear about whether he will run for a third term (MercoPress), which is barred by the Columbian constitution, as the Columbian constitutional court continues to delay its ruling on the viability of the referendum.

EUROPE: Serbia EU Entry

Serbia submitted its formal application for membership in the European Union (DeutscheWelle) amid continued international pressure to cooperate more closely with the UN war crimes tribunal in The Hague to track down certain war crimes fugitives and recognize Kosovo as an independent country.

Greece: Moody's cut Greece's credit rating by one notch after downgrades from both Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. The rating agency maintained a negative outlook (FT), implying that it may announce further downgrades in the future.

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