Monday, December 28, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, December 28, 2009

 

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 28, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Clashes and Arrests in Iran
- Aftermath of U.S. Airliner Plot
- Assassinations in Iraq
- Japan's Factory Output Grows

Top of the Agenda: Clashes and Arrests in Iran

Iranian police fired live rounds and tear gas into throngs of protesters over the weekend as opposition groups clashed with government authorities on one of the holiest days on the Shiite Muslim calendar. The New York Times reports that at least ten people died in street clashes on December 27, including the nephew of defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi.

The unrest in some of Iran's major cities signals the reinvigoration of Iran's opposition movement, initially galvanized in the aftermath of the country's disputed June 2009 presidential election. Iranian authorities today arrested a number of opposition leaders (BBC), including a former foreign minister, and a senior aide to Mousavi. Iranian security forces also reportedly stormed opposition offices, rounded up activists (al-Jazeera), and targeted at least one news agency (Times).

The BBC's Jon Leyne says that the regime's tactic of arrest and intimidation resembles moves taken after protests intensified in June.

Analysis:

Iran Analyst Meir Javedanfar, writing for PBS' Tehran Bureau, posits that after a period of normalcy the current unrest suggests a full-scale civil disobedience campaign is festering, "not unlike the first intifada the Palestinians initiated against Israel in 1987."

CFR's Ray Takeyh says that despite the ongoing anti-regime demonstrations in Iran's streets, opposition forces remain fragmented and disjointed. But Rouzbeh Parsi and Trita Parsi argue the most recent protests could prove the regime's breaking point (Daily Beast).

Background:

Photographs from the protests portray the rage fueling Iran's opposition movement (WashPost). Amateur video obtained by the Wall Street Journal depicts protestors attacking a small police depot in central Tehran.

MIDDLE EAST: Assassinations in Iraq

A string of assassination attempts in Baghdad and Sunni areas west of the capital have killed at least four (WashPost), including prominent Sunni politicians and tribal sheiks. Despite heightened security, a wave of sectarian violence has targeted Shiite pilgrims flocking to the Iraqi holy city of Karbala for the Ashura holiday (VOA).

UAE: Abu Dhabi has chosen a consortium of South Korean firms to build the emirate's first nuclear power plant, a $20 billion deal that will supply up to a quarter of the country's energy needs within ten years (The National).

PACIFIC RIM: Japan’s Factory Output Grows

A recovery in export demand from Asian countries boosted production in Japan, spurring a 2.6 percent jump in November from the month before. Factory output is a key barometer of Japan's economic health (AP) .

China: Chinese authorities have rescued the twenty-five members of the ship De Xin Hai, a bulk carrier that was hijacked by Somali pirates in October (BBC). A reported hijacker told Reuters that a $4 million ransom, dropped onto the deck of the ship, cleared the way for the crew's release.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Taliban Commander Dies in Shootout

A top Taliban commander has been killed in a shootout in eastern Afghanistan (VOA). NATO officials say the commander, who sought refuge in a nearby mosque as troops approached, was wanted for arms dealing.

Pakistan: President Asif Ali Zardari writes in an op ed that he will not be intimidated by new corruption charges and what he calls the efforts of anti-democratic forces (Wall Street Journal) to undermine his government.

AMERICAS: Christmas Day Plotter in Terror Database

The Nigerian man charged with plotting to blow up a U.S. airliner as it landed in Detroit was listed on a U.S. terror database. The listing of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab came after his father warned State Department officials in Nigeria that he was worried about his son's radical beliefs (WashPost). President Barack Obama has ordered a review of air passenger screening practices (AP).

CFR's John Campbell, in a new analysis, examines Muslim militancy in Nigeria. Meanwhile, U.S. and international authorities have renewed focus on Yemen as a terrorist safe haven (WashPost). The New York Times reports that the CIA has expanded its covert efforts in the fragile state. Abdulmutallab was barred from entering Britain earlier this year, the Times of London reports.

The Nigerian newspaper This Day profiles the terror suspect.

EUROPE: Accused Drug Mule Sentenced in China

Chinese officials have told a British man convicted of smuggling heroin into China that he will be executed for his alleged crime (Times). Akmal Shaikh was arrested in the western Chinese city of Urumqi in 2007 with nearly nine pounds of heroin. If the execution proceeds it would be the first European national put to death in China in fifty years. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has repeatedly appealed for clemency in the case.

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