Wednesday, December 23, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, December 23, 2009

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 23, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Iran clashes over Montazeri's death.
- Mexican drug violence continues.
- Russia resolves Turkmen gas dispute.
- Ford to sell Sweden's Volvo to China.

Top of the Agenda: Clashes over Montazeri's Death

Iranian security forces clashed (Reuters) with opposition supporters commemorating the death of dissident Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, signaling escalating tension in Iran six months after the country's disputed presidential election.

The reformist website Jaras said many demonstrators were injured and arrests were made during clashes in the city of Isfahan, during a day of mourning for Montazeri, a fierce critic of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime. Reformist website Parlemannews said at least fifty opposition backers, including four journalists, were arrested in Isfahan. Jaras also reported clashes in Najafabad, the city where Montazeri was born.

The BBC reports that the confrontations are part of a build-up to a big series of demonstrations expected over the weekend. Authorities have not yet confirmed the unrest in Isfahan, but the country's police chief Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam told the semi-official Fars news agency that protests would not be tolerated. "We advise this movement to end their activities," he said. "Otherwise those who violate the order will be fiercely confronted, based on the law."

Analysis:

A Washington Post editorial says Ahmadinejad's decision to defy the Obama administration's year-end deadline on nuclear negotiations is politically risky, since internal popular support is "as weak as ever."

In the Guardian, Norman Dombey says nothing in published intelligence documents shows Iran is close to having nuclear weapons.

Background:

A CFR Backgrounder examines Iran's nuclear program.

MIDDLE EAST: Israel Prisoner Swap

Hamas accused (al-Jazeera) Israel of stalling over the proposed prisoner swap that would exchange captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit for roughly one thousand Palestinian prisoners.

PACIFIC RIM: Chinese Dissident's Trial

The trial against prominent Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo begins (NYT) Wednesday on accusations of subversion.

Japan: Japan set a May deadline (GlobalTimes) for resolving the dispute over relocating the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma on Okinawa.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan Politician Killing

Afghan police gunned down (Quqnoos) Afghan politician Younos Shirinagha in the northern Baghlan province after he drove through a police ambush set for Taliban fighters in the country's north.

Pakistan: Pakistani authorities ordered (Reuters) heightened security for journalists across the country a day after a suicide bomber attacked the Pakistani press club in Peshawar.

AFRICA: Niger on ECOWAS Suspension

Niger's government criticized (BBC) African trade bloc ECOWAS for suspending the country's membership due to its disapproval of Nigerian President Mamadou Tandja's move to stay in power by changing the constitution.

Sudan: Recent flare-ups of violence in South Sudan could disrupt (IWPR) national elections scheduled for April 11, human rights groups say.

AMERICAS: Mexican Drug Violence

In an act of revenge, gunmen killed (NYT) four relatives of Mexican sailor Ensign Melquisedet Angulo Córdova, who died last week in a special forces assault that killed top drug lord Arturo Beltrán Leyva.

United States: The Obama administration is struggling (NYT) to come up with the money to replace the Guantánamo Bay detention facility after being rebuffed by lawmakers over financing, potentially delaying the transfer of prisoners until 2011.

EUROPE: Russian Gas Dispute

Russia's state energy company Gazprom settled (FT) an eight-month trade dispute with Turkmenistan, indicating it would build new pipelines to bring Turkmen gas to Europe.

Sweden: U.S. automaker Ford struck a deal (AFP) to sell Sweden's Volvo brand to Chinese carmaker Geely.

TRANSNATIONAL: Defining Progress

The Economist examines the modern view of progress--that as technology and gross domestic product advance, morals and society are sinking back "into decadence and barbarism."
 

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