Wednesday, April 7, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily News Brief, April 7, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

April 7, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Geithner to Conduct Talks in Beijing
- Iraqi Premier Loses Key Shiite Support
- Top Afghan Election Officials Resign
- U.S. and Brazil Cut Deal on Cotton

Top of the Agenda: Geithner to Conduct Talks in Beijing

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will hold talks in Beijing (WashPost) Thursday amid heightened tensions between the United States and China over the value of the Chinese yuan. The yuan will likely top Geithner's agenda during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan, days after the U.S. Treasury postponed its decision on naming China a "currency manipulator." Meanwhile, a policy overview by China's National Development and Reform Commission, the country's most influential economic planning agency, suggested Chinese authorities are considering letting the yuan rise off its peg against the dollar. The statement said China would consider exporters' exchange rate risks, while one of its economists said China should move toward a more flexible exchange rate. The White House said President Barack Obama would also discuss the issue next week with Chinese President Hu Jintao during a nuclear security summit in Washington.

China's foreign ministry said the country's currency policy would follow three principles: Any change would be controlled, home-grown, and gradual (FT).

Analysis:

In the Times of London, Bill Emmott says postponement of the April 15 report on currency manipulation makes sense, because a deal between the United States and China on its currency is feasible.

In the Financial Times, Clive Crook says the U.S. Treasury's delay was wise, because a more sophisticated, cooperative approach is more likely to garner China's support.

Background:

This CFR Backgrounder examines the China-U.S. economic imbalance.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraqi Premier Loses Key Shiite Support

Supporters of anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr don't want him to back (WSJ) Iraq's incumbent prime minister Nouri al-Maliki or his chief rival Ayad Allawi following the March 7 election. Instead, they support Shiite politician Ibrahim al-Jaafari, interim prime minister from 2005 to 2006.

The close vote count in Iraq's elections means that it will take months of coalition-building, and Sunni-Shiite political tensions, before it's clear who will head the new government, says CFR expert Meghan O'Sullivan.

Iran: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ridiculed U.S. President Obama (AP) over his new nuclear strategy to a crowd of thousands in northwest Iran.

PACIFIC RIM: Thailand Declares State of Emergency

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared a state of emergency (AFP) in response to escalating anti-government protests in support of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Read CFR's Asia Unbound blog, featuring timely analysis from CFR's Asia experts.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Top Afghan Election Officials Resign

Afghanistan's top election officials resigned (Quqnoos) Wednesday after Afghan President Hamid Karzai accused Western embassies of threatening and bribing them.

India: Indian authorities promised to hunt down (al-Jazeera) Maoist rebels who killed seventy-six police personnel in an attack earlier this week in the state of Chattisgarh.

AFRICA: Sudan Clashes over North-South Border

Within days of Sudan's upcoming elections, South Sudan's President Salva Kiir said Khartoum was delaying demarcating the north-south border (Reuters) to try to retain control over oil reserves.

This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memo presents the likely triggers of renewed civil war in Sudan and discusses the U.S. policy options for preventing it from happening and mitigating its consequences.

Nigeria: Nigerian acting president Goodluck Jonathan dismissed (DailyTrust) the head of the country's national oil company Mohammed Barkindo, who held the position for just over a year.

Read this transcript of John Campbell, Bennett Freeman, and Peter Lewis discussing Nigeria's political crisis, sectarian conflict, security conditions, and energy sector.

AMERICAS: U.S. and Brazil Cut Deal on Cotton

The United States and Brazil reached an agreement (NYT) on American subsidies for cotton growers, one day before Brazil was to begin imposing up to $830 million in sanctions through the WTO.

Because of Brazil's economic strength, its hemispheric leadership, and its growing geostrategic role through multilateral international forums, it has become a vital player in regional and global politics across numerous dimensions, writes CFR's Shannon O'Neil.

Argentina: China said its soybean oil traders may "gradually" delay or cancel (MercoPress) imports from Argentina after the country toughened inspections, which could reduce those imports to China by as much as 50 percent.

EUROPE: Eurozone Fails to Grow in Q4

Eurozone growth dropped (BBC) from 0.1 percent to zero in the three months up to December and contracted 2.2 percent year-over-year. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted G7 countries would grow 1.9 percent in the first three months of 2010.

Russia: The European Union, whose natural gas is largely supplied by Russia, began construction (DeutscheWelle) on an underwater pipeline through the Baltic Sea between Russia and Germany.

Transnational: Nuclear Posture Review Charts New U.S. Positions

The Obama administration's Nuclear Posture Review charts new positions on potential targets of U.S. atomic weapons, preventing proliferation, and developing new weapons, says CFR's Michael Levi.

 

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