Wednesday, December 2, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, December 2, 2009

 

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 2, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Obama speech outlines Afghanistan escalation and exit strategy.
- Australian Senate rejects climate change bill.
- Philippine mayor charged with twenty-five counts of murder.
- NATO pledges at least five thousand additional troops for Afghanistan.

Top of the Agenda: Obama's Afghan Strategy

In a speech Tuesday at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, U.S. President Barack Obama sought to convince the U.S. public that the resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan and al-Qaeda's presence in Pakistan were direct threats (NYT) to the United States and that he could expand U.S. involvement in the war while also setting an exit strategy. Obama will send thirty thousand more troops to Afghanistan in 2010, but said he would start drawing U.S. forces out of the country in July 2011. He stressed that the United States could not afford an open-ended commitment and promised to "bring this war to a successful conclusion." He laid out a strategy to reverse the Taliban's strength and increase pressure on Afghanistan's government to build up its military and increase its attacks on al-Qaeda in Pakistan. Obama also directed a message to Hamid Karzai, saying, "The days of providing a blank check are over." Obama said the new strategy would cost $30 billion in the first year.

Adding thirty thousand U.S. troops to the roughly seventy thousand in Afghanistan now is close to what General Stanley McChrystal requested, but the scheduled removal of troops presents him with an urgent timeline (WashPost). Some Republicans say the deadline for withdrawal aids the Taliban insurgency. Democrats, meanwhile, have criticized the strategy as too expensive in light of the bleak domestic economy. Obama is relying on the notion that Karzai will respond to pressure to reform his government and that the Taliban will not wait out the U.S. military presence.

Analysis

On Politico, CFR's Richard Haass says Obama's view that U.S. interests in Afghanistan are vital is debatable and that what happens in Afghanistan may not be critical to its more important neighbor, Pakistan.

In the Wall Street Journal, former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf says an exit strategy should be based on achieving military and political goals rather than time limits.

In the Washington Post, David Ignatius says Obama made the right decision and that the only viable exit strategy from Afghanistan "is one that starts with a bang," as the addition of thirty thousand more U.S. troops in 2010 will ultimately allow control to be transferred to the Afghan army and police.

In the New York Times, Thomas Friedman says a minimalist approach of working with tribal leaders is better than Obama's decision to escalate in Afghanistan, given the need for "nation-building at home."

In an interview, CFR's Senior Fellow for Defense Policy Stephen Biddle says Obama's announcement of a date for U.S. forces to begin withdrawing from Afghanistan could provoke criticism from wary Democrats, but also says the U.S. "is uncomfortable with long stays."

In an interview, CFR's Kim Barker, on return from a recent trip to Kabul, says Afghans are disillusioned with both the reelection of Karzai and what they perceive as the U.S desire for an exit strategy.

Background

A CFR Backgrounder examines the troubled Afghan-Pakistani border.

MIDDLE EAST: British Yachtsmen in Iran

The Iranian government confirmed the release (al-Jazeera) of five British sailors who entered Iranian waters illegally by mistake.

Israel: A classified report by European consuls in Israel recommends the European Union take steps to strengthen the Palestinian Authority's status in East Jerusalem, Haaretz reports.

PACIFIC RIM: Australia's Climate Change Bill

The Australian Senate voted against (Australian) Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's climate change bill, but the government says it will reintroduce the rejected legislation next year.

Philippines: A Philippine mayor, Andal Ampatuan Jr., has been charged with twenty-five counts of murder (GlobalTimes) in connection with last week's mass murder of fifty-seven unarmed civilians and journalists.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India Carbon Cuts

India, the world's fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, aims to reduce its carbon intensity (al-Jazeera) by 24 percent by 2020 compared to 2005 levels, according to a government report.

Pakistan: A suicide bomber targeted the naval headquarters in Islamabad, killing a security official (Dawn) and injuring three.

AFRICA: Congo War Crimes Trial

The International Criminal Court ruled that former Democratic Republic of Congo vice president Jean-Pierre Bemba must stay in custody (AFP) to await his war crimes trial.

South Africa: South Africa President Jacob Zuma announced new measures (allAfrica) to fight HIV/AIDS and will undergo testing for his HIV status in a campaign to persuade South Africans to be tested.

AMERICAS: Honduran Political Crisis

Ousted Honduran President Manuel Zelaya said he will no longer accept (LatAmHeraldTribune) reinstatement as president, while Latin American countries disagreed over whether to accept the results of the weekend's presidential elections at the Ibero-American Summit in Portugal.

EUROPE: NATO Troops in Afghanistan

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said non-U.S. NATO countries will offer at least five thousand extra troops (BBC) and "probably a few thousand on top of that," as Obama said he would increase U.S. forces by thirty thousand.

Kosovo: The International Court of Justice has started hearings (DeustcheWelle) on the legality of Kosovo's secession from Serbia. Serbia says Kosovo's independence violates its sovereignty and undermines international law.

TRANSNATIONAL: UN and Climate Change

Heritage Foundation fellow Brett Schaefer outlines why the United Nations should play a minimal role (RealClearWorld) in negotiating global agreements to address climate change.
 

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