Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, July 02, 2009

Thursday, July 2, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, July 02, 2009

July 2, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- U.S. marines launch major Afghan offensive.

- North Korea test fires two missiles.

- Honduran gov't rejects deadline.

- Russia's Medvedev hopeful for Obama summit.

NOTE: There will be no Daily News Brief tomorrow, July 3, in observance of the July 4 holiday.

Top of the Agenda: New Afghan Offensive

On Thursday, U.S. marines launched an offensive (NYT) to take back the Helmand River Valley in southwestern Afghanistan from Taliban militants. The U.S. military says this operation is the marines' largest (WashPost) since its invasion of Fallujah, Iraq, in 2004. The focus of the offensive will be bolstering local Afghan governments and protecting civilians. Pakistan says it deployed troops (AP) to a stretch of its border to prevent insurgents from fleeing across.

Background

- Reuters offers a Q&A on the new military offensive.

Analysis

- Spiegel looks at divided German opinion on the Afghan war.

- CFR's Stephen Biddle writes that the strategic case for waging war in Afghanistan outweighs the case for withdrawal, but not by much.

- CFR's George Gavrilis says that the United States should work with Iran to enhance its chances of success in Afghanistan.

MIDEAST: Iran's Shifting Power Dynamics

The Washington Post reports that both hard-liners and reformists in Iran are rethinking their political strategie s in light of the unrest that has followed the disputed June presidential elections. Some analysts say reformists should focus on obtaining some posts in President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's cabinet. In an interview with RFE/RL, a prominent Iranian cleric says that most independent religious figures are critical of the election results.

Israel: Foreign Policy offers a pair of articles on the Obama administration's policy toward Israel. Two analysts say Obama's unwillingness to confront Israel on the settlement issue is undermining any hope of Mideast peace. But another expert says Obama is being too harsh on Israel.

PACIFIC RIM: N. Korea Missile Tests

North Korea test fired two short-range missiles (Reuters) on Thursday, raising tension in the region as well as concerns that it may fire mid-range missiles within days.

N. Korea Food Aid: The World Food Program has had to drastically cut (VOA) its aid to North Korea due to lack of international funding and new restrictions imposed by Pyongyang.

China: China is taking steps to reconcile with the International Monetary Fund (WSJ), including allowing an IMF review of its economy.

SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA: The Pakistan Aid Battle

The New York Times reports that the United States is in competition with Islamist charities to deliver aid to the internally displaced people in Pakistan. Thus far, the Islamist charities are winning.

Pakistan: A new public opinion poll shows that Pakistani public opinion has turned against the Taliban (Reuters) and other Islamist militants, but Pakistanis still do not trust the United States.

The full report is available here.

AFRICA: Debating Somalia Peacekeepers

The BBC looks at the debate over whether the African Union peacekeeping troops in Somalia are helpful or a distraction from solving Somalia's fundamental problems

Guinea-Bissau: An International Crisis Group report on Guinea-Bissau, a transit point for drugs from Latin America to Europe, says that "without outside help to end military involvement in politics and impunity, it may be impossible to halt a slide into further violence."

Uganda: The wife of Joseph Kony, leader of the Lord's Resistance Army, tells the Institute for War and Peace Reporting that there are LRA rebels in the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

AMERICAS: Honduran Gov't Rejects Deadline

The new Honduran government has rejected the deadline (BBC) given to it by the Organization for American States for reinstating ousted President Manuel Zelaya. Protests both for and against Zelaya continue in Honduras.

United States: The Christian Science Monitor reports that it should be clear by the end of July whether President Barack Obama's top legislative initiatives, health care and climate change, are on track.

Colombia: Obama met Colombian President Alvaro Uribe this week. The Plan Colombia and Beyond blog assesses Uribe's visit, noting that it was surprising that Obama clearly told Uribe not to seek a third term as president.

EUROPE: Medvedev Hopeful for Obama Summit

In a video posted to the Kremlin website, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev expressed optimism (AP) about Obama's upcoming visit to Russia. Meanwhile, U.S. officials signaled that they will not offer concessions (WSJ) on two major issues-missile-defense sites in Eastern Europe and NATO expansion.

Germany: Spiegel looks at how German commentators are reacting to the Supreme Court decision that the controversial Lisbon treaty, which would streamline EU functioning, is legal.

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