Democratic.net: [RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, August 21, 2009

Friday, August 21, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, August 21, 2009

August 21, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

-Afghan election results.
-Iran lift ban on UN nuclear inspection.
-Bombings in Iraq.
-Lockerbie bomber goes home.

Top of the Agenda: Claims of Victory in Afghanistan

Incumbent president Hamid Karzai and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah both claimed victory (Times of London) in Thursday's presidential elections in Afghanistan, although officials will not announce preliminary results until Saturday.

Abdullah said his campaign team's unofficial count show him with a clear majority, and was investigating possible incidents of electoral fraud (AP) in Karzai stronghold areas. Karzai's team said it believed he would have fifty percent of the vote, enough to avoid a runoff vote.

Pajhwok Afghan News reports Abdullah and Karzai, who lead a pack of thirty candidates, are "virtually in a dead heat (tied) in a dozen or so polling station counts."

A spokesman for the Independent Election Commission (IEC) estimated that 40 to 50 percent of Afghanistan's fifteen million registered voters turned out to vote despite threats of violence from the Taliban. At least twenty-six Afghans were killed in more than fifty insurgent attacks (Quqnoos) on election day, after the Taliban called on its followers to disrupt the electoral process.

Analysis

In a New York Times op-ed, CFR President Richard Haass says the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan is a war of choice, not, as U.S. President Barack Obama's asserted earlier this week, one of necessity. Still, Haass writes, "American interests are sufficiently important, prospects for achieving limited success are sufficiently high and the risks of alternative policies are sufficiently great to proceed, for now, with Mr. Obama's measured strategy."

In a new interview, CFR's Daniel Markey looks at neighboring Pakistan's stake in the election. He says Pakistan, confronting its own Taliban insurgency, has an interest in seeing Afghanistan's presidential elections yield a legitimate government that brings stability.

Background
The Wall Street Journal looks at the numerous obstacles blocking voters' way to the polls, including police checkpoints and insurgent attacks.

Newsweek looks at Afghanistan's new generation of political idealists and their impact on the election.

A new CFR interactive timeline chronicles the U.S. war in Afghanistan.

A CFR Backgrounder profiles the Taliban in Afghanistan.

MIDEAST: Iran Lifts Ban

Iran lifted a ban (AP) preventing UN inspectors from visiting a nuclear reactor site, and increased UN monitoring rights at another atomic site. Iranian diplomats confirmed the visit last week of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to the nearly completed Arak heavy water reactor.

A CFR Backgrounder looks at Iran's controversial nuclear program.

Iraq: Another round of bombings (McClatchy) south of Baghdad killed at least thirty people and wounded nearly two hundred, a day after a string of attacks killed nearly a hundred in the city.

Israel: The Washington Post reports on delays in Israel's construction of a barrier wall through and around the West Bank.

AFRICA: Lockerbie Bomber Released

Abdel Basset al-Megrahi , the man convicted in the 1988 Lockerbie bombing of Pan Am Flight 103, returned home (Times of London) to celebrations in Libya after the Scottish government ordered his release on compassionate grounds. President Obama called al-Megrahi's release "a mistake."

The Economist looks at the changes in Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi's image since he took power forty years ago, and reviews the current state of affairs in Libya.

Immigration: About seventy-five illegal immigrants from Libya died while traveling to Italy (South African Press Association) on a rubber boat. A woman, a child and three Eritrean men survived and are in critical condition. Authorities believe many died of starvation or thirst, and that others drowned. Italy and Libya have been patrolling in the Mediterranean to try to prevent such boats from attempting the trip.

PACIFIC RIM: North Korean Delegation in South Korea

A high-level North Korean six-person delegation is in South Korea to mourn former President Kim Dae-jung. South Korea's unification ministry said there was no plan for an official meeting between North and South Korea during the trip. Still, Yonhap reports, a senior official on the delegation told Seoul's Vice Unification Minister Hong Yang-ho, "I'll meet with everybody. Let's meet to talk." Speculators say the delegation may meet with conservative South Korean President Lee Myung-bak tomorrow.

Philippines: Defense Secretary Robert Gates decided to keep an elite U.S. counterinsurgency unit (NYT) in the Philippines, where it has been deployed for seven years. The decision comes despite pressure to redeploy the six hundred troops to Afghanistan or Iraq.

Immigration: Reuters looks at the plight of African immigrants in China.

Uighurs: Foreign Policy interviews Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer on the situation in China's Xinjiang province. Kadeer says she was not involved in the recent unrest there, but alleges Chinese authorities are arresting "hundreds of people" each day in the region.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Drone Strike

A U.S. drone strike killed at least three people (Reuters) in Pakistan's North Waziristan region on the Afghan border.

Pakistan has launched the production of its own drones (Daily Times), which will be produced in collaboration with an Italian company.

CFR's Micah Zenko says U.S. air strikes in Pakistan are an ineffective counterinsurgency tool, and recommends that Washington create oversight mechanisms for its covert operations there.

CIA: The New York Times reports on the CIA's use of the private security contractor formerly known as Blackwater to load bombs on the unmanned drones it uses in Pakistan.

AMERICAS: Drug Cartel Indictments

U.S. officials indicted forty-three people (VOA) on charges of involvement in the powerful Mexican Sinaloa drug cartel. U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said the defendants smuggled "multi-ton quantities of narcotics" into the United States for distribution.

A CFR Backgrounder looks at the Mexican war on drugs.

Amnesty: The Wall Street Journal reports on possible changes in the U.S. government's policy on asylum seekers to accommodate those fleeing gang violence in Central America.

EUROPE: Russia Infrastructure Review

Russia announced a review of the state of the country's infrastructure (Moscow Times) after an explosion at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power plant killed seventeen people earlier this week.

France: French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said the French government will pay to clean up French beaches polluted by a toxic seaweed (AFP). The seaweed apparently emits a deadly gas as it rots.

TRANSNATIONAL: Super Rice

NPR looks at genetic engineering of rice that could prevent future famines.

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