Thursday, January 21, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, January 21, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Questions Loom on Global Economy
- Haitians at Risk of Injury and Disease
- Gates Visits Islamabad on Terrorism
- Karzai to Launch Reconciliation Plan

Top of the Agenda: Global Economic Questions

China grew 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter this year amid rising inflation, which could prompt Beijing to adopt stronger policies to prevent economic overheating but also slow the global recovery. The Chinese economy expanded (FT) 8.7 percent last year, well above its 8 percent target. In response, the government stepped up measures to slow bank lending. The lending boom increased concerns about asset bubbles, especially in real estate, where prices rose 7.8 percent on average last year alone. The World Bank warned (FT) that although the global economy will grow 2.7 percent this year, the effects of the crisis will linger for years to come.

Hans Timmer, head of the bank's forecasting group, said growth in developed and developing countries will be insufficient to absorb newcomers into the labor markets or provide enough jobs for the unemployed."

In the United States, the Obama administration will announce (NYT) plans to limit bank sizes and excessive risk-taking for the country's largest financial institutions. The restrictions, which follow the approach of former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker, would be similar to those passed in the Glass-Steagall Act in 1933 during the Great Depression, which was revoked in 1999. U.S. banks warn (WashPost) that continued slow lending indicates that the economy remains weak.

Analysis:

In Dow Jones' Financial News, CFR's Benn Steil argues that the monetary forces behind the crashes of 1929 and 2008 were very similar. In the 1920s, as in the mid-2000s, Fed officials mistakenly thought that they had found, in the practice of trying to stabilize a price index, the holy grail of monetary policy. In consequence, central bankers are once again grasping for a new orthodoxy.

Background:

This CFR Special Report outlines lessons about the dangers of policies that fuel the rapid buildup of debt across the economy, including excessive leverage and lax regulation.

AMERICAS: Haiti Relief Efforts

A strong aftershock in Haiti caused more damage and traumatized Haitians, as authorities continue to grapple (NYT) with the dangers posed by untreated wounds and disease.

United States: U.S .Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will announce (WSJ) U.S. plans to make unrestricted access to the Internet a top foreign policy priority.

In this Podcast, CFR's Adam Segal says the showdown between Google and the Chinese government could result in separate regional Internets and comes at a difficult time in U.S.-China relations.

ASIA PACIFIC: China Google Case

Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei said Google's complaints about cyberattacks and censorship in China should not be linked (WSJ) to U.S. relations with the country.

MIDDLE EAST: Yemen Visa Halt

Yemen announced it will stop issuing visas (al-Jazeera) upon arrival to foreigners to prevent "terrorist infiltration," under international pressure to tackle the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

Israel: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak met (JerusalemPost) with U.S. Mideast envoy George Mitchell in Tel Aviv in an effort to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Gates in Pakistan

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates made an unannounced visit to Islamabad Thursday to reassure (WashPost) the country's leadership about the United States' long-term commitment to Pakistan and persuade them to expand their crackdown on the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

In this Contingency Planning Memorandum, CFR's Daniel Markey says India faces the prospect of another major attack by Pakistan-based terrorist organizations in the near future, which would jeopardize U.S. security interests in South Asia.

Afghanistan: Afghan President Hamid Karzai plans (Quqnoos) to launch a reconciliation and reintegration plan at next week's London conference on Afghanistan, offering work, education, pensions, and land to Taliban fighters who lay down their arms.

AFRICA: Violence in Nigeria

Nigerian officials relaxed a twenty-four hour curfew in the central city of Jos, allowing (Reuters) thousands of residents to return home after troops and police restored calm following religious clashes.

Angola: Angola's parliament approved (BBC) a new constitution that abolishes direct presidential elections in favor of the majority party in parliament nominating the head of state.

EUROPE: EU Airport Security

EU officials will meet (DeutscheWelle) with U.S. Homeland Security head Janet Napolitano in Spain to discuss boosting security at European airports and the EU's concerns about installing full-body scanners.

Belgium: U.S. carmaker General Motors confirmed it will close (BBC) a Belgian plant of its European unit Opel, cutting 2,300 jobs. GM said 8,300 jobs would be cut across Europe to reduce Opel's capacity by 20 percent.

TRANSNATIONAL: Economic Freedom Index

A Heritage Foundation Report finds that economic freedoms were sharply reduced (Reuters) last year due to massive spending and bailouts during the financial crisis, a trend that the organization says threatens future economic prospects.
 

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