Wednesday, January 27, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, January 27, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

January 27, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- World Leaders Meet on Yemen
- State of the Union Focused on Economy
- North and South Korea Exchange Fire
- ECB Backs U.S. Bank Plans

Top of the Agenda: World Leaders Meet on Yemen

The United States and twenty other countries are gathering (NYT) today at a conference in London to address Yemen's growing instability, as reports surface about heavy U.S. involvement in Yemeni strikes against al-Qaeda. The conference's aim is to address the poverty, inequities, and domestic tensions that help breed radicalism in Yemen. But participants at the conference--which comes a month after the failed Christmas Day airplane bomb plot that highlighted Yemen's al-Qaeda problem--are likely to face social, political, and logistical constraints in expanding the fight against al-Qaeda in Yemen.

Some analysts and diplomats say a rush of aid and attention could worsen the system of patronage that fuels extremism in Yemen and that there is plenty of unspent aid money there already. The conference will also seek support from Yemen's immediate neighbors such as Saudi Arabia to open their labor markets and make future aid conditional on political and economic reforms.

Al-Qaeda may welcome (CSM) a big international commitment in Yemen, since it would open another front to a diffused Western antiterrorism effort.

The Washington Post reports that U.S. military teams and intelligence are deeply involved in a secret joint operation with Yemeni troops, which has killed six of fifteen top leaders in a regional al-Qaeda affiliate in recent weeks. The far-reaching U.S. role in Yemen could be politically challenging for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who must balance American support against backlash by local groups that resent U.S. interference.

Analysis:

In the Philadelphia Inquirer, Marisa Porges says, "the attempted Christmas attack has inadvertently helped the United States on multiple national security fronts."

Background:

In this CFR Expert Brief, Stewart Patrick says the Christmas bomb attempt raised new concerns about "ungoverned spaces." But the term fails to address the real security concerns presented by nations like Yemen.

AMERICAS: Obama's State of the Union

U.S. President Barack Obama's State of the Union speech will focus (WashPost) on the economy, education, and changing the way Washington works, an attempt to gain back political support after Democrats lost a key Senate seat in Massachusetts. Obama may also establish (NYT) a bipartisan commission by executive order to address the country's growing deficit, after efforts to create a similar panel failed in the Senate.

Haiti: Thousands of Haitians lined up (NYT) at money transfer offices to collect small cash remittances from abroad, as Haitian government officials noted a significant spike of money pouring in.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraq Bombings

On the second consecutive day of major suicide bombings in Iraq, U.S. General Raymond Odierno blamed a changing al-Qaeda in Iraq. He said the group has shifted its focus (CSM) from sustaining a long-term insurgency to clear-cut terrorist attacks aimed at destabilizing the government.

PACIFIC RIM: North-South Korea Relations

South Korea returned fire (Yonhap) after North Korea fired shells near the countries' disputed inter-Korean sea border, reportedly as part of an annual military drill.

Japan: Japanese exports in December grew (FT) 12.1 percent compared to a year ago, fueled by a 43 percent increase in exports to China. Analysts say the increase indicates that economic recovery led by exports to Asia is on track.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Sri Lankan Elections

Sri Lankan state television announced that incumbent Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa was reelected (al-Jazeera), as Sri Lankan troops surrounded the hotel of his rival Sarath Fonseka for security.

Afghanistan: The UN Security Council removed (Quqnoos) five top Taliban officials from its blacklist, in coordination with Afghan President Hamid Karzai's new reintegration effort

AFRICA: Nigeria-U.S. Ties

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said increasing radicalization of young Nigerians can be blamed (BBC) on Nigerian leaders, who have failed to tackle the country's "unbelievable" corruption and poor living standards.

Guinea: Guinea's new interim Prime Minister Jean-Marie Dore was sworn in (AFP) at the national assembly and said he would seek "transparent and credible elections" and overhaul the military.

EUROPE: ECB Backs U.S. Bank Plans

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet supports (WSJ) U.S. plans to rein in the size and activities of large banks and stressed the need to coordinate these efforts globally. Separately, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, is likely to emphasize (WSJ) the EU's waning international influence, thanks to political divisions and poor long-term prospects for its economy.

TRANSNATIONAL: Educating Poor Children

Progress in achieving the United Nation's "Education for All" goals has been uneven, the Economist writes. Spending more money on the problem, as suggested by a new UNESCO report, will not work without additional reforms such as private-sector schools and performance-based pay for teachers.
 

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