Thursday, February 4, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, February 4, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 4, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Joint NATO-Afghan Surge Publicized
- China Rebuts U.S. Criticism Over Currency
- Pakistan Bomb Kills Three U.S. Soldiers
- U.S. Healthcare Costs Rise

Top of the Agenda: Joint NATO-Afghan Surge Publicized

NATO and the Afghan military are preparing to launch (WSJ) their biggest joint offensive of the Afghanistan surge and are publicizing their target, a rare military choice apparently intended to intimidate the Taliban. This week, coalition officers--who have been hinting at an offensive targeting the town of Marjah--took the unusual step of issuing a press release about the attack. Senior Afghan officials also held a news conference discussing the offensive. The strategy could lessen military and civilian casualties if many insurgents choose to flee rather than fight and community leaders decide to back coalition forces. The risks include giving the enemy time to dig entrenched fighting positions and tunnel networks, rig buildings, and bury bombs.

Marjah has been under complete Taliban control (NYT) for several months and served as a staging area for suicide attacks and other bombings. Residents said Taliban fighters have been increasing numbers to prepare for the attack, and a local Taliban commander said they would not be intimidated.

Political resistance is building (WashPost) to Afghan President Hamid Karzai's plan to end the war by negotiating with Taliban leaders while trying to woo their fighters.

Analysis:

In the Hindu, M.K. Bhadrakumar says the London conference on Afghanistan gave grounds for optimism.

In a BBC article, Ahmed Rashid says talking to the Taliban could be the only way to end the war in Afghanistan.

In an interview, CFR's Stephen Biddle says two key issues in Afghanistan are whether Karzai will implement reforms and whether the American public is willing to invest the time it will take for a successful counterinsurgency.

Background:

This CFR Backgrounder examines the Taliban in Afghanistan.

PACIFIC RIM: U.S.-China Currency Dispute

China signaled it would not submit to U.S. pressure to revalue its currency (NYT), which the Obama administration says is fueling the countries' ongoing trade gap. Separately, President Obama plans to meet with the Dalai Lama (WashPost) in mid-February in Washington, despite China's opposition. China is taking its trade dispute (WSJ) with the European Union over Chinese leather shoe imports to the World Trade Organization.

North Korea: North Korean officials reopened (AFP) hundreds of markets to quell public anger, two months after economic upheaval caused riots and starvation.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraq Election

An Iraqi appeals court struck down (al-Jazeera) a ban imposed on hundreds of candidates for suspected Ba'ath party ties, which may allow them to run in next month's election.

Iran: Chinese officials renewed their opposition (NYT) to sanctions over Iran's nuclear program, saying they might block a diplomatic resolution.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Bombing

A roadside bomb killed at least three U.S. soldiers and five Pakistanis in the Dir District near the Afghan border, drawing attention (Dawn) to a little-known U.S. army training program.

AFRICA: Libya’s Web Censorship

Human Rights Watch says Libya must stop (BBC) its web crackdown, which has blocked opposition sites and sites like YouTube.

Somalia: Doctors Without Borders says indiscriminate shelling by African Union peacekeepers, government forces, and Islamist insurgents into residential areas of Mogadishu has wounded (AP) at least eighty-nine civilians in three days.

AMERICAS: U.S. Healthcare Cost Burden

U.S. healthcare costs last year rose to $2.5 trillion (NYT), making healthcare spending worth 17.3 percent of the country's gross domestic product. That represents the biggest one-year expansion of healthcare's share of the economy since the government began keeping records.

Haiti: The recent arrest of U.S. missionaries for allegedly trying to smuggle children (WSJ) out of Haiti revealed a larger issue: that many orphaned Haitian children have actually been given up by poor families.

EUROPE: Greek Debt and the Euro

The cost of insuring Greek and Portuguese debt jumped (WSJ), undermining the EU's endorsement of Greece's budget plan as the euro slumped. Greek tax inspectors and customs officials began protesting (BBC) the government's austerity measures, including wage cuts.

NATO: NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen plans to push (DeutscheWelle) NATO defense ministers to send more training teams to Afghanistan at a two-day meeting in Istanbul.

TRANSNATIONAL:

In the International Economic Bulletin, the Carnegie Endowment's Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil argue that global
policymakers' top priority should remain sustained stimulus to boost growth, despite growing concerns about the risk of skyrocketing government debt.
 

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