[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily News Brief, May 20, 2010

 

May 20, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - N. Korea Condemned for Sunk Ship - Iran to Scrap Fuel Swap if Sanctions - Yuan May Stick amid Economic Turmoil - Calderón Pushes on Immigration, Economy Top of the Agenda: N. Korea Condemned for Sunk Ship An international investigation found that a North Korean torpedo was responsible for the sinking of a South Korean warship on March 26, leading the United States, Britain, and the United Nations to condemn the Pyongyang regime (Telegraph). The finding may stoke instability on the Korean Peninsula, with South Korea vowing "resolute countermeasures" against the North for the unprovoked attack. The report found a North Korean vessel fired on the South Korean ship before returning to North Korean waters. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said, "This act of aggression is one more instance of North Korea's unacceptable behavior and defiance of international law." North Korea reacted harshly to the report, saying it was a "fabrication" and that it would wage "all-out war" if there was any retaliation. China, North Korea's strongest ally, reacted cautiously and could use its veto at the UN Security Council to block further sanctions against the North. South Korea called an emergency meeting of its National Security Council to discuss its response. The escalation of tensions complicates the upcoming trip (NYT) to China by top U.S. officials. Analysis: A Korea Times editorial says the South is moving quickly to take punitive action against the North, but it should first protect its citizens working in the North. CFR's Scott Snyder says South Korea's possible responses can be categorized according to four different tracks: domestic, inter-Korean, the U.S.-ROK alliance, and international. Background: The BBC provides a Q&A about the March 26 sinking of the South Korean ship. MIDDLE EAST: Iran to Scrap Fuel Swap If Sanctions Iran said it will back out of an agreement to (Bloomberg) swap enriched uranium for reactor fuel if the UN Security Council approves a U.S.-sponsored proposal for a fourth round of sanctions. The Security Council will maintain pressure on Iran to cease its uranium enrichment program if it moves forward with sanctions, but that won't likely change Tehran's course, writes CFR President Richard Haass. UAE: Dubai World agreed on the economic terms of its $23.5 billion debt-restructuring deal, a positive sign (FT) that the major drag on the emirate's economy will be lifted soon. PACIFIC RIM: Yuan May Stick Amid Economic Turmoil Chinese Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao appeared to urge the United States not to pressure China on its currency during strategic talks between the countries next week, suggesting China will wait for economic clarity (DowJones) from the eurozone before potentially revaluing its own currency. Six experts debate whether the Obama administration's approach to China's currency policy is the right one, and why. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan Delegates Hold Peace Talks Forty-five delegates from Afghanistan, including representatives from the Taliban, the Afghan government, and major political parties, are meeting in the Maldives for peace talks (al-Jazeera), as the Afghan security situation deteriorates. Kyrgyzstan: Kyrgyzstan's interim government cancelled its promised presidential election (Telegraph) and imposed a state of emergency on the city of Jalalabad, as it struggles to maintain control of the country. AFRICA: Madagascar Quells Mutiny Attempt Madagascar's security forces quelled an attempted mutiny (Reuters) by a small group of military police after a gun battle in the capital Antananarivo. South Africa: South African industrial strikes are spreading (BusinessDay), which could threaten the security of the electricity supply during the World Cup this summer. AMERICAS: Calderón Pushes on Immigration, Economy One day after private meetings with President Barack Obama and White House celebrations in his honor, Mexican President Felipe Calderón will address a joint session of Congress (AP) to push for immigration reform and stronger economic ties with Mexico. Calderón's state visit to Washington aims to emphasize the growing cross-border partnership on Mexico's drug war, but immigration tensions could surface, says CFR's Shannon O'Neil. United States: The next attempt to stop the Gulf oil spill involves pumping heavy fluids (CSMonitor) down two three-inch lines inside the wellhead to temporarily stop the oil rush and seal the opening. EUROPE: EU Finance Regulators Meet on German Ban The French government called for an urgent meeting of European financial regulators to discuss the implications of Germany's unilateral ban (FT) on naked short selling of eurozone sovereign debt, which rocked global markets and further depressed the value of the euro. Saving the EU requires a plan to allow fiscally weak member countries to fail, as well as painful lifestyle changes and some loss of national sovereignty, says Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies. Greece: Summer tourism, an important part of the Greek economy, is being threatened (DeutscheWelle) by ongoing strikes, the debt crisis, and the falling euro. TRANSNATIONAL: Global Warming and the Oceans The oceans, the most reliable measure of global temperature changes, have been warming inexorably since at least 1993, at a rate consistent with what is expected from the buildup of greenhouse gases (TIME).

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