Wednesday, January 6, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, January 6, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

January 6, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Obama Criticizes Intelligence Failures
- Yemen Arrests Three Terrorist Plotters
- China on Iran Sanctions
- Bombing in Russia's Dagestan Region

Top of the Agenda: Obama Criticizes Intelligence Failures

U.S. President Barack Obama said U.S. intelligence agencies could have thwarted (WashPost) the Christmas Day airline bombing attempt, and he demanded rapid improvements in intelligence and security efforts. Obama said the failure was not in collecting intelligence but in failing "to connect those dots." Obama cited steps that have been taken, such as expanding the U.S. "no-fly" list, enhanced screening for anyone flying to the United States from an expanded list of "countries of interest," additional screening and security on all domestic or U.S.-bound international flights, and an automatic check of terrorism suspects to determine whether they have valid U.S. visas. He said he would announce further steps and that the review of the terrorist watch-listing system would be made public in the next few days.

Obama said evidence shows (WSJ) that U.S. intelligence agencies knew before Christmas that Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula wanted to strike U.S. assets in the region and planned to hit the United States itself. Obama said he would hold accountable "our intelligence, homeland security and law-enforcement systems, and the people in them. He requested "specific recommendations for corrective actions" from the agency reviews that can be implemented immediately.

Obama also announced (NYT) that his administration has suspended transfers of Yemeni prisoners held at Guantanamo Bay to Yemen.

Analysis:

In the LA Times, Richard Fontaine and Andrew Exum say terrorism is "just one of the threats the deteriorating situation in Yemen poses to U.S. interests" and that Yemen hasn't planned for its young, poverty-ridden population's post-oil future.

On Slate.com, Daniel Byman says the Yemeni government opposes al-Qaeda jihadists, except when it's using them for its own ends.

In a CFR interview, Carnegie Endowment's Christopher Boucek says that if left unchecked, the rise of Yemen's al-Qaeda affiliates could lead to al-Qaeda's further entrenchment in Yemen.

Background:

A New York Times Magazine article looks at the Obama administration's war on terrorism.

This CFR Backgrounder explains al-Qaeda's origins and reach.

The BBC profiles al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

MIDDLE EAST: Embassy Threats in Yemen

Yemen says it arrested (NYT) three militants suspected of involvement in attacks planned against the U.S. Embassy and other diplomatic missions, after the American Embassy in Yemen's capital, Sana'a, reopened Tuesday.

Egypt: At least fifty-five people were injured (al-Jazeera) in clashes between Egyptian police and pro-Palestinian activists who were delivering aid to Gaza, after a controversial Egyptian decision allowed some aid to be shipped through Israel.

Iran: Iran's atomic complex is increasingly being hidden (NYT) in networks of tunnels and bunkers across the country, complicating potential military strikes against it and making intelligence-gathering more difficult.

PACIFIC RIM: China on Iran Sanctions

China says (BBC) it's not the right time for more UN sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, after Iran missed the United States' end-of-year deadline to respond to offers of talks.

Japan: Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced (Kyodo News) that Deputy Prime Minister Naoto Kan will succeed Hirohisa Fujii as Japan's finance minister. Fujii said he would step down for health reasons.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Kashmir Attack

At least three Pakistani soldiers were killed (al-Jazeera) and eleven others wounded in a possible suicide attack in the Pakistan-controlled region of Kashmir, the day after Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari visited the area.

AFRICA: Nigeria Air-Check Appeal

Nigeria's senate gave (Vanguard) the United States seven days to remove its citizens from a watch list that would subject them to heightened airport security measures, alleging discrimination.

East Africa: The European Union's decision last month to cut duties on bananas from Latin America is threatening (BusinessDaily) the East African Community's push to promote its banana export industry. East Africans fear the tariff's fall could undercut its competitive advantage in EU markets.

AMERICAS: Jordanian Double Agent Bombing

Jordanian officials say the Jordanian double agent who staged a suicide attack on a CIA base last week had supplied (WashPost) intelligence agencies with credible leads about al-Qaeda plots, amid criticism that lax security procedures allowed the man to enter the CIA base and that the attacker duped CIA operatives.

Cuba: Cuba rejected (LAHT) its inclusion on the United States' list of countries whose citizens face increased security checks, saying its government is cooperating in the international fight against terrorism.

EUROPE: Bombing in Russia's Dagestan Region

A suicide bomber killed (Rianovosti) at least six policemen and injured fourteen others in Russia's mostly Muslim Dagestan region, where Islamist attacks against police and officials have been escalating.

Iceland: The British and Dutch governments condemned (FT) Icelandic President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson's decision to block a deal to repay them roughly $5.7 billion in funding lost during the country's financial crisis. The credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the country's main sovereign rating to junk.

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