Wednesday, November 18, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, November 18, 2009

 

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

November 18, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Obama visits South Korea.
- Iraq's vice president vetoes election law.
- Obama says Guantanamo to close sometime next year.
- EU and Russia seek improved ties.

Top of the Agenda: Obama Transitions from China to South Korea

U.S. President Barack Obama arrived in South Korea Wednesday for talks focused on influencing North Korea to agree to discuss (Yonhap) nuclear disarmament and on U.S.-South Korea bilateral trade. South Korean officials said the North Korean nuclear issue would be the most important on the agenda. Ahead of Obama's visit, North Korea's largest newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, commented that North Korea would "strike for the improvement of the inter-Korean relations in the future" after a skirmish between North and South Korean naval vessels last week.

So far, a preliminary trade deal between the United States and South Korea has been bogged down (WashPost) by U.S. criticism that it does not open the South Korean market enough to U.S. products such as cars. The deal, struck two years ago under President George W. Bush, has yet to be approved by legislatures in either country.

The Straits Times reports that South Korea is showing "signs of impatience" at U.S. efforts to renegotiate parts of the free trade agreement. A spokesman for South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said earlier this month, "We hope President Obama will express a more aggressive position on the FTA and are working towards that end."

Analysis

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Chung Min Lee says President Obama needs to cultivate South Korea's ties with Japan and address the situation on the Korean peninsula, in order to shape Asia's rise.

In Foreign Affairs, Andrei Lankov says by exposing North Koreans to the truth about their impoverishment and about the prosperity of their South Korean cousins, the United States can encourage North Koreans to change the regime in Pyongyang.

Background

A CFR Crisis Guide examines the dispute between North and South Korea.

PACIFIC RIM: Obama's China Visit

The Asia Times reports that President Obama avoided the subject of China's military buildup and deployment of new missiles during his visit to China, which could stoke concerns among U.S. allies in Asia.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraq Election Law

Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi said Wednesday he vetoed Iraq's new election law, a move that threatens to delay (al-Jazeera) January elections and the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

Israel: The Obama administration criticized the Israeli government's decision to expand settlements in East Jerusalem amid U.S. diplomatic efforts to relaunch peace talks (Haaretz) between Israelis and Palestinians.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan War

A survey of 704 Afghan men and women by British aid agency Oxfam says that corruption and poor living standards are the main drivers of war (al-Jazeera) in Afghanistan.

Pakistan: Punjab's Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif said India is involved in disrupting peace in Pakistan's Balochistan and Waziristan provinces in an effort to undermine Pakistan's international credibility (Dawn).

AFRICA: Displaced Zimbabweans

As many as 2,700 Zimbabwean asylum seekers have set up temporary shelter in a rural South African town near Cape Town after xenophobic attacks (Reuters) erupted over competition for seasonal jobs at farms in the area.

Guinea: South Africa's government is investigating reports that South African mercenaries are training Guinean militia (allAfrica), which some suspect to be part of the Guinea military leadership's bid to run in next year's presidential election.

AMERICAS: Guantanamo Closing

During an interview in China, U.S. President Barack Obama said the Guantanamo Bay prison facility would not close (WashPost) by the January deadline he set but that he hoped to close it sometime next year.

Honduras: The Honduran Congress said it would not vote on whether to restore ousted President Manuel Zelaya until after next month's election, which prompted criticism (MercoPress) from Zelaya. Senior U.S. diplomat Craig Kelly arrived in Honduras to revive a collapsed deal between the two sides.

EUROPE: European Bank Regulation

European banks warned that increased capital requirements and tight supervision from bank regulators could be counterproductive (FT) and delay the economic recovery.

EU-Russia Ties: The European Union will seek to smooth trade and energy ties (BBC) with Russia at a summit in Stockholm Wednesday, after Russian disputes earlier this year disrupted the gas supply to Europe, which relies on Russia for one-quarter of its gas consumption.

TRANSNATIONAL: Nuclear Security

In the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Kenneth Luongo writes that existing arms control treaties and international agreements should be made more flexible and that a global nuclear material security road map should be created with "measurable benchmarks" and "proven security upgrades."
 

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