Monday, January 4, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, January 4, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

January 4, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- New Airport Security Measures
- Additional Sanctions for Iran
- New Asian Free-Trade Zones
- Afghan Parliament Rejects Cabinet

Top of the Agenda: New Airport Security Measures

Travelers from fourteen countries flying into the United States will face (NYT) additional airport screening at airports as part of new security measures imposed by the Obama administration. The measures, in response to the Christmas Day bombing attempt on a U.S. air carrier, will include (WashPost) pat-downs and carry-on bag searches for citizens of countries including Afghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, and Yemen. The new rules will have little impact on U.S. domestic flights since use of passports is not required.

The United States and Britain closed embassies (Guardian) in Yemen over the weekend following intelligence that showed that the wing of al-Qaeda linked to the Christmas Day incident may be planning an attack on U.S. targets in Sana'a. Increase in al-Qaeda activity has led to worry that Yemen will become a failed state similar to Somalia. President Barack Obama is under increased pressure to reconsider (al-Jazeera) the repatriation of Yemenis held at Guantanamo Bay, amid focus on al-Qaeda-linked activity in their home country.

Background:

A New York Times Magazine article looks at the Obama administration's war on terrorism.

This CFR Backgrounder explains al-Qaeda's origins and reach.

The BBC profiles al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

Analysis:

In the Guardian, CFR's Micah Zenko says an immediate U.S. military strike in Yemen in response to the failed bomb plot may look increasingly likely, but it would be a bad short-term solution.

In a CFR interview, Carnegie Endowment's Christopher Boucek says that if left unchecked, the rise of Yemen's al-Qaeda affiliates could lead to al-Qaeda's further entrenchment in Yemen.

Newsweek's Christopher Dickey says U.S. anti-terror efforts have entered an especially dangerous phase, which could mean increasing numbers of individual, freelance terrorists.

MIDDLE EAST: Additional Sanctions for Iran

The Obama administration plans new sanctions (NYT) in another attempt to pressure Iran into halting its nuclear program. Obama's advisers believe that though Iran's political and military leaders remain determined to develop nuclear weapons, they are distracted by turmoil in the streets and political infighting. The sanctions will specifically target Iran's Revolutionary Guard, which is believed to be in charge of the nuclear program.

This CFR Backgrounder looks at the influence of the Revolutionary Guard.

Palestine: An Egyptian official confirmed (Jerusalem Post) the Obama administration is working on a Mideast peace plan that would include an immediate resumption of talks between Palestinians and Israelis with the goal of at a final status agreement within two years. Israel's foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, called (Haaretz) the prospect of a peace deal in two years "unrealistic."

Jordan: The eighth victim in the bombing of a CIA facility in Afghanistan last week was a captain in Jordan's intelligence service. The death provides (WashPost) a rare window into Jordan's partnership with United States in anti-terror operations.

PACIFIC RIM: New Asian Free-Trade Zones

Australia's free-trade zone with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and New Zealand began Monday (Bernama). The agreement spans twelve economies with a combined GDP of A$3.1 trillion. Indonesia is petitioning (Reuters) for the delay of some tariff reductions in the new China-ASEAN free-trade deal--over fears sectors such as textiles would be vulnerable to cheap Chinese imports. Under the pact, which went into effect Friday, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand must reduce tariffs on about 90 percent of imported goods to zero.

China: The National Petroleum Corporation is working (Bloomberg) to contain a diesel fuel spill on the Yellow River, which supplies drinking water for roughly 107 million people. A TIME article says the spill highlights how far China still has to go to before ensuring the health of its endangered waterways.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan Parliament Rejects Cabinet

Afghanistan's parliament rejected (WSJ) a majority of President Hamid Karzai's cabinet nominees, prompting concerns that it could delay the formation of a new government. The decision to veto seventeen of twenty-four cabinet nominees was described (WashPost) as an unprecedented show of power by the often-compliant parliament and a rejection of Karzai's propensity to hand out top positions to powerful ethnic or political constituencies.

Four U.S. soldiers and one British soldier were killed (BBC) in two separate bomb blasts in Afghanistan.

Malaysia: The Home Ministry filed (Bernama) an appeal of Friday's high court ruling allowing Catholics to use the word Allah in reference to the Christian god. Muslims plan (AFP) to protest the ruling in Malaysia Friday, and a Facebook group protesting the ruling has already attracted (WSJ) more than thirty-six thousand members.

AFRICA: Cartoon Attacker Targeted Clinton

The Somali man charged with trying to kill the Danish cartoonist Kurt Westergaard was held (Telegraph) by Kenyan police for seven weeks before being deported for alleged plans to blow up two hotels and a bus station in Nairobi when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited last August. Danish police are attempting to determine (NYT) whether the 28-year-old suspect acted alone in his murder plot.

Kenya: A Jamaican-born Muslim cleric, who was expelled from Britain following a jail sentence for inciting racial hatred, will be deported (BBC) from Kenya because of his "terrorist history."

AMERICAS: U.S. Financial Challenges

Policymakers face the challenge (WSJ) of convincing the world that the U.S. government can get its finances back in order.

South America: According to the Guardian, South American leaders such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez are trying to muzzle media owners and journalists.

EUROPE: Russia Halts Oil to Belarus

Having failed to reach a new agreement on pipeline fees, Russia halted (Deutsche-Welle) oil shipments to Belarus, sparking fears of supply disruptions in other parts of Europe. Most of the oil shipped to the country is refined and exported to Western Europe.

Five countries, including Spain, Ireland, and Greece, hurt significantly by the credit crisis face (Guardian) a hard road to recovery.

Editor's Note: Please note the relaunch of CFR.org's home page offering improved site navigation, expanded content, and new multimedia options.

 

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