Monday, February 1, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, February 1, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 1, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Obama Announces Budget
- U.S.-Iran Tensions Heighten Over Missile
- U.S.-Taiwan Arms Deal Angers China
- Nuclear Nonproliferation Efforts Slow

Top of the Agenda: Obama Budget Concerns

U.S. President Barack Obama announces (WSJ) his 2011 budget Monday in a difficult effort to rein in the country's ballooning debts without harming the fragile economic recovery. His $3.8 trillion budget proposal projects the deficit to rise to a record $1.6 trillion this year, but drop to roughly $700 billion, or 4 percent of gross domestic product, by 2013. Obama plans to rely on a new debt commission to propose recommendations for reducing the deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2015, as he promised. He plans to ask for increases to spend on education and civilian scientific research, while cutting programs such as the National Park Service's Save America's Treasures and Preserve America grant program and the Advanced Earned Income Tax Credit for low-wage workers.

Obama's 2011 defense budget will avoid (WashPost) the controversial weapons cuts of last year's budget, while continuing to shift funds into weapons programs such as helicopters, unmanned planes, and Special Operations units for Afghanistan and Iraq.

The budget will be accompanied by a congressionally mandated Quadrennial Defense review, which asks the Pentagon to focus more on wars in which enemy forces hide among the populace, predicting a future dominated by "hybrid" wars where traditional states fight more like guerrillas.

Analysis:

A Wall Street Journal editorial says the bipartisan deficit commission is being sold as a way to force Congress to reduce federal borrowing, but really provides Democrats with political cover to raise taxes.

In the Financial Times, Clive Crook says American voters want more public services than they are willing to pay for and that the "live now, pay later" mentality that caused the economic collapse prevails. He recommends linking specific programs with specific taxes to make public choices clearer.

In this CFR Podcast, economists Allan Meltzer and Martin Baily discuss the economic and political implications of Obama's economic proposals and the reappointment of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

MIDDLE EAST: U.S.-Iran Missile Tensions

Tension between the United States and Iran heightened (Guardian) as the Obama administration disclosed the deployment of a missile shield to protect American allies in the Gulf from attack by Tehran.

Iraq: At least forty-one people were killed and 106 injured in Baghdad after a suspected female suicide bomber struck (al-Jazeera) a procession of Shia Muslims on pilgrimage.

PACIFIC RIM: U.S.-China Relations on Taiwan

Chinese state media criticized (Reuters) the United States for a planned $6.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan, further straining the countries' bilateral relations.

Tibet-China: China said it would make no concessions (Xinhua) on Tibet's sovereignty in talks between Chinese leaders and envoys to the Dalai Lama in Beijing.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan Troop Training

The first contingent of additional U.S. troops arrived (WashPost) in Afghanistan under President Obama's plan to enlarge the Afghan National Army. Separately, the Pakistani Taliban dismissed reports (al-Jazeera) that its leader died after a U.S. missile strike.

India-Pakistan: Government forces clashed (Reuters) with Muslim demonstrators in Srinagar, Kashmir, amid rising tensions between India and Pakistan over border disputes and increased violence by militant groups.

AFRICA: African Land Disputes

African land reform may be the foundation for solving many of the continent's other problems, from famine to poverty to genocide, the Christian Science Monitor reports.

Nigeria: Royal Dutch Shell shut oil flow stations in Nigeria's Niger Delta after a pipeline was sabotaged (BBC). This came shortly after an announcement by the militant group Mend (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta) that it was ending its truce.

AMERICAS: U.S. Haiti Rescue

The United States resumed (NYT) its military airlift of injured Haitians. The effort was suspended when Florida officials complained that the hospitals were overwhelmed and they needed a plan for reimbursement for the care.

EUROPE: U.S.-Russia Nuclear Nonproliferation Deal

The absence of a new nonproliferation treaty between the United States and Russia, which is scheduled to be negotiated by early-February, has stalled the nonproliferation activities of other countries, Deutsche Welle reports.

Greece-Turkey: UN Chief Ban Ki-moon said a "solution is possible and within reach" ahead of peace talks (BBC) aimed at reuniting Cyprus.
 

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