Wednesday, February 3, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, February 3, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 3, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Iran Changes Tone on Nuclear Deal
- OECD: Inequality in China Being Tamed
- U.S. Drones Kill At Least Ten in Pakistan
- France Denies Citizenship Over Veil

Top of the Agenda: Iran Changes Tone on Nuclear Deal

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared to back (WashPost) a dormant proposal to send Iran's enriched uranium abroad, only weeks after rejecting the International Atomic Energy Agency's brokered deal on the country's nuclear program. "If we allow them to take it, there is no problem," Ahmadinejad said on state television. "We sign a contract to give 3.5 percent enriched uranium and receive 20 percent enriched ones after four or five months." U.S. officials reacted cautiously to the remarks. The United States, France, Britain, and Germany have been pushing for additional sanctions against Tehran at the UN Security Council. Diplomats say the sudden interest in diplomacy might be intended to persuade a reluctant China--which just handed the Security Council presidency to France--to block sanctions. Meanwhile, Tehran responded angrily to U.S. moves to expand land- and sea-based missile defense systems in and around the Persian Gulf.

Iran test-fired (PRESSTV) a new satellite rocket and unveiled a series of what it said were home-grown advances in a space program. Western officials worry (WSJ) about the possible crossover with the country's weapons program, since many of the same technologies used in satellite development can apply to missile-delivery systems.

Analysis:

In Hurriyet Daily News, Ilhan Tanir says the United States' recent acceleration of arms sales with its Gulf allies is increasing tensions in an already tense Middle Eastern climate.

On Foreign Policy, Stephen Walt says scholarly literature suggests that airstrikes against Iran won't successfully tip its government "over the edge," and economic sanctions are not an effective coercive tool "unless one is very, very patient."

In Newsweek, CFR President Richard Haass says the current opportunity for outsiders to promote regime change within Iran should not be missed.

Background:

Read the proposed Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act of 2009.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraq Bombing

Iraqi police say a motorcycle bomb killed (al-Jazeera) at least twenty Shiite pilgrims and wounded more than one hundred others near the holy city of Karbala.

Israel: Israeli security forces searched (Haaretz) the country's coastline and closed beaches in the south Tuesday after two barrels of explosives washed up onto beaches north of Gaza.

PACIFIC RIM: North Korea Currency Revaluation

Rumors suggest North Korea's top finance minister may have been fired (KoreaTimes) over the chaos and hardship triggered by last year's currency revaluation, which was intended to fight inflation.

China: A new OECD report says the increase in inequality in China has leveled off (WSJ) in recent years and could be less severe than previously thought.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Drone Attacks

U.S. drones fired eighteen missiles (RFERL) into a Pakistani sanctuary for al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters along the Afghan border, killing at least ten people. Separately, a roadside bomb killed (Dawn) at least eight people, including three U.S. soldiers, near a girls' school in northwest Pakistan.

AFRICA: Darfur Genocide Ruling

International judges reversed (Reuters) a ruling that found insufficient proof to charge Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir with genocide in Darfur.

Nigeria: FBI Director Robert Mueller III said Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab--the man accused in the Christmas Day bomb plot--is providing (WashPost) useful intelligence to U.S. authorities, as Congress debates the Obama administration's handling of the case.

AMERICAS: Intel Officials Say Terrorist Attack "Certain"

Leading U.S. intelligence officials, testifying before a Senate committee, say it is "certain" that al-Qaeda or its affiliates will attempt (WashPost) a terrorist attack on the United States in the next six months.

U.S. Senate Banking Committee chairman Christopher Dodd said he supported (WSJ) the Obama administration's proposal to rein in banks' risky behavior but that its late addition threatens ongoing efforts to overhaul financial regulation.

Haiti: The United Nations' new food coupon distribution program, which began Saturday, aims to repair (NYT) an uncoordinated and chaotic effort to feed Haitians.

EUROPE: French Citizenship and the Veil

France refused (Guardian) to grant citizenship to a Moroccan man who forced his wife to wear the full veil, arguing that his strict form of faith is incompatible with the country's values.

Russia: The possible sale of a French Mistral assault ship to Russia may harm regional and U.S. relations, reports the Washington Post.

TRANSNATIONAL: Return of Keynesian Thinking

In City Journal, Theodore Dalrymple discusses the return to popularity of John Kenneth Galbraith, the Canadian-American Keynesian economist who favored studying political and cultural influences in economics rather than using technical models.
 

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