Wednesday, March 17, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily News Brief, March 17, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 17, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Maliki Files Complaint as Vote Lead Slips
- Israeli Police Reopen West Bank, Temple Mount
- World Bank Raises China Growth Forecast
- Brown Delays EU Hedge Fund Reform

Top of the Agenda: Maliki Sees Vote Lead Slip, Files Complaint

The political coalition of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki filed a complaint (WashPost) that the national election commission was manipulating results in Iraq's elections and demanded a recount, after his coalition's narrow lead slipped. The Iraqiya coalition of secular Shiite Ayad Allawi, favored by Sunni Arabs, reportedly moved ahead in the popular vote count Tuesday, though it still trailed in the province-by-province count that determines parliamentary seat apportionment. Maliki's coalition leads in seven of eighteen provinces, including Baghdad, which offers the most parliamentary seats. A narrow lead would make it harder for Maliki to form a coalition government and could delay the planned U.S. troop withdrawal if political jockeying sparked sectarian violence.

The United Nations, Iraqi monitoring groups, and Western diplomats have said there is no evidence of widespread fraud (McClatchy) that would discredit the entire vote or any one ticket.

Analysis:

On the World Politics Review, Kirk Sowell says Kurdish support is key to Maliki's prospects and that the election will result in a more polarized parliament split between majority Shiite Islamists and opposition Sunni Arab nationalists, with secular Shiite and tribal parties almost entirely wiped out.

In the National, Charles Dunne says Arab states should grasp the opportunity presented by a new and less sectarian Iraqi government to create closer diplomatic, military, and intelligence relations with the Arab world.

Background:

In this media conference call, CFR's Meghan O'Sullivan and Brett McGurk say the fracturing of Iraqi political coalitions makes parliamentary elections a possibly healthy step in the country's evolution.

MIDDLE EAST: Israeli Police Reopen West Bank, Temple Mount

Police reopened Israel's Temple Mount site to visitors and lifted closure of the West Bank (Ynet) a day after violent clashes in Jerusalem.

PACIFIC RIM: World Bank Raises China Growth Forecast

In its quarterly assessment of China, the World Bank recommended higher interest rates and a stronger currency (NYT) while raising the country's growth forecast to 9.5 percent for 2010, versus the 8.7 percent it projected in November. Shifts in Chinese policy are making it harder for foreign companies to succeed and suggest Beijing is reassessing liberalization, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Japan: The Bank of Japan loosened monetary policy (Reuters), likely to prevent a rise in the yen from derailing the country's export-driven recovery and deepening deflation.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Iran and Pakistan Sign Gas Deal

Iran and Pakistan signed a deal in Turkey moving toward a much-delayed gas pipe (WSJ) connecting the countries. Washington opposed the deal as undermining sanctions against Iran.

Mumbai Terror Suspect: The U.S. man accused of helping to scout out Mumbai (NYT), where a Pakistani terrorist group killed163 people in a 2008 attack, is expected to plead guilty.

AFRICA: Twelve People Killed in Nigeria

Attackers killed twelve people (AP) in a small Christian village in central Nigeria, where religious fighting has already killed hundreds this year.

Zimbabwe: South African leader Jacob Zuma met Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe to discuss resolving a decade-long political crisis (Reuters) that has hindered economic growth.

AMERICAS: Mexico Calls for U.S. to Share Drug Fight

Mexican President Felipe Calderon called for the United States to share responsibility (BBC) in the battle against drug traffickers during a visit to Ciudad Juarez, where three people connected to the U.S. consulate were killed over the weekend.

In Ciudad Juarez, local gangs rather than drug cartels are spreading violence, says CFR's Shannon O'Neil. To fight them, law enforcement and education must be improved, she says.

Haiti: Haiti unveiled a first draft of its reconstruction plan (AFP), which calls for $11.5 billion to help the country rebuild.

While aid to Haiti must increase, Haitians also should be allowed to help themselves, and there is no way they can do that in a devastated nation. A substantial number of Haitians must be allowed to move to richer countries--including the United States, writes CFR's Elliot Abrams in the Washington Post.

EUROPE: Brown Delays EU Hedge Fund Reform

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown delayed contentious EU hedge fund reforms (Independent) backed by France and Germany until after the general election.

Greece: Credit rating agency Standard and Poor's, which threatened to consider downgrading Greece's rating last month, maintained the country's triple-B-plus long-term rating (WSJ).

Markets' reactions to the sovereign debt crisis in Greece and other European countries suggest global governments "have used up all their ammunition to boost global growth," and could be punished by the markets if they sustain stimulus programs, says CFR's Sebastian Mallaby.

 

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