[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, June 28, 2010

 

June 28, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - G20 Postpones Bank Regulations, Cuts Deficits - U.S. Signals Move on S. Korea Trade Deal - Obama, Cameron: BP Should Not Implode - Germany Pressured to Reduce Trade Surplus Top of the Agenda: G20 Postpones Bank Regulations, Cuts Deficits Leaders at the Group of 20 meeting in Toronto postponed (NYT) a new set of requirements on capital and liquidity for banks until November, when the G20 next meets in Seoul, South Korea. The G20 said it aims to adopt the rules by the end of 2012, but cautioned the standards would be "phased in over a time frame that is consistent with sustained recovery and limits market disruption." Unlike last year's G20 pledge, which set a deadline of 2012 for increasing the amount of capital banks must hold to absorb shocks, the phase-in is now more open-ended (Reuters), allowing different speeds for different countries. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said negotiators wanted to ensure that limiting risks taken by banks would not dampen the recovery by constraining lending. U.S. President Barack Obama urged the G20 to continue spending to support growth, but summit leaders agreed to halve annual deficits (WashPost) within three years. Analysis: In this First Take, CFR's Sebastian Mallaby says the latest gathering of the world's leading economies failed to signal a clear path to resolving global debt and growth concerns but the Toronto summit can claim success in positively influencing major powers' economic policies. In the Guardian, John Hilary says G20 meetings are ineffective because they have failed to address any structural problems in global finance and the economy, and have not addressed climate change In the Business Standard, Arvind Subramanian says the G20 worked because it "multilateralized" China's currency issue. Now Germany needs to reform its trade imbalance problem, he says Background: This CFR Backgrounder looks at the range of policy concerns of each G20 country going into the summit Read the G-20's Toronto Summit Declaration. MIDDLE EAST: Turkey Blocks Israeli Military Flight Turkey blocked an Israeli military flight (BBC) carrying Israeli officers to Poland from Turkish airspace, in apparent retaliation for Israel's raid on a Gaza aid convoy. Iran: Officials fear energy-hungry China, which has questioned the value of sanctions, will step up its trade with Iran as other countries scale back, the L.A. Times reports. PACIFIC RIM: U.S. Signals Move on S. Korea Trade Deal The United States said it will seek to complete a long-stalled trade deal with South Korea (FT) before the G20 meeting in November. China-Taiwan: Taiwan is scheduled to sign its first trade treaty with China (Bloomberg), casting aside the Chinese claim that Taiwan is a renegade province in favor of tightening economic integration. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: U.S. Wary of Pakistan's Afghan Plan U.S. President Obama and CIA Director Leon Panetta both reacted with skepticism about the prospects for an Afghanistan peace deal (NYT) pushed by Pakistan between the Afghan government and some Taliban militants. President Obama was wise to replace General Stanley McChrystal as Afghan commander, but he should now mount a thorough review of the costly and uncertain nation-building policy in Afghanistan, writes CFR President Richard N. Haass. Kyrgyzstan: In a referendum, voters in Kyrgyzstan endorsed a new constitution (WSJ), reducing the power of the chief executive but legitimizing the country's interim leadership after months of political turmoil. The displacement of Kyrgyzstan's Uzbeks raises problems of legitimacy for Sunday's constitutional referendum, as well as concerns about the U.S.-leased airbase at Manas, says Kyrgyzstan expert Michele Commercio. AFRICA: Outsiders Want Continuity in Egypt Egypt's neighbors and Western allies want continuity in the country's leadership (Reuters), as speculation mounts about whether 82-year-old President Hosni Mubarak will be fit to run in 2011 elections. Burundi: Voter turnout is low in Burundi, where President Pierre Nkurunziza, a former rebel leader, is running alone after the opposition claimed the elections were rigged and pulled out of the race (BBC). AMERICAS: Obama, Cameron: BP Should Not Implode U.S. President Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron said BP should "remain a strong and stable company" (Telegraph) after meeting to discuss the environmental disaster on the sidelines of the G20 summit. President Obama's vow to make BP pay, and Congress' tough questions to the oil industry, highlight a tense debate over oil policy given the Gulf's ongoing Deepwater spill. Panama: Former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega -- accused of laundering drug money from a Colombian cocaine cartel in France – goes on trial in Paris (Guardian). EUROPE: Germany Pressured to Reduce Trade Surplus Now that China has promised a loosening of its exchange rate policy, the United States and other countries want Germany do something about its large trade surplus (WSJ). By ending the yuan's peg to the U.S. dollar, China deflected pressure over its currency policy at the G20 meeting. But tensions will persist over the pace of reform, says CFR's Steven Dunaway Britain: Britain will impose a 5 percent reduction (DeutscheWelle) in new non-EU immigrants to avoid an influx of foreign workers ahead of a permanent reduction next spring.

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