Thursday, June 24, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, June 24, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

June 24, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- McChrystal Replaced with Petraeus
- Iran Prepared for Fuel Sanctions
- China Arrests "Hardcore Terrorists"
- Developing Nations to Attend G8

Top of the Agenda: McChrystal Replaced with Petraeus

President Barack Obama named General David Petraeus to replace General Stanley McChrystal as the top military commander for Afghanistan after McChrystal and his staff made a number of critical and derogatory remarks that appeared in a Rolling Stone article. The president stressed his Afghanistan strategy would remain the same (NYT) despite public setbacks and growing doubt. Choosing Petraeus, attributed with overseeing the turnaround in the Iraq war, may avoid some of the near-term problems associated with removing the commander (WashPost) of a war effort involving 120,000 U.S. and NATO troops, billions of dollars in reconstruction projects, and sensitive diplomatic negotiations. "The decision to name Petraeus is the least disruptive way of removing McChrystal," Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told the Washington Post. "Petraeus knows the strategy inside and out, he knows the plans--he is as much of an architect of this as General McChrystal."

But going forward, questions remain about the efficacy of the strategy and whether Petraeus will be any more successful than McChrystal at employing it. June has been the deadliest month for NATO troops since the war in Afghanistan began, with seventy-nine casualties so far (AFP). Petraeus has already said he would recommend delaying the pullout of U.S. forces (BBC) from Afghanistan beyond 2011 if need be, arguing security and political conditions in Afghanistan must be ready to handle a U.S. drawdown.

Analysis:

In this First Take, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass says it was wise for the president to act swiftly to replace his theater commander and he should act no less decisively in reviewing policy on Afghanistan.

Michael Codner, head of military sciences at the Britain's Royal United Services Institute, examines the nomination of Petraeus (BBC) and whether he has what's needed to "deliver Afghanistan."

CFR's Max Boot notes that the turnaround in Iraq did not happen overnight (NYT) and warns that the increase in casualties in Afghanistan is not "necessarily a sign of impending disaster."

Background:

Read President Obama's speech on the nomination of General Petraeus as top commander for the mission in Afghanistan.

In Foreign Affairs, Stephen Biddle, Fotini Christia, and J. Alexander Thier write that the West's attempt to build a centralized government in Afghanistan fits poorly with the country's history and political culture. The most realistic models of governance are decentralized democracy and a system of internal mixed sovereignty.

MIDDLE EAST: Iran Prepared for Fuel Sanctions

Observers say the Tehran government has already done much to deflect the impact of the new U.S. sanctions (WashPost) targeting fuel imports, including a rationing system that has decreased domestic gasoline consumption by nearly 20 percent in the past six months.

With the latest round of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, the Obama administration achieved an important milestone in pressuring Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, write CFR's Ray Takeyh and the Brookings Institution's Suzanne Maloney. What is less clear, however, is whether this achievement makes the prospect of a nuclear Iran more or less likely.

Israel: UN chief Ban Ki-moon called Israel's plan to demolish Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem to make way for a tourist park "contrary to international law" (BBC) and unhelpful.

PACIFIC RIM: China Arrests "Hardcore Terrorists"

Chinese officials said ten "hardcore terrorists" (BBC) have been arrested for allegedly planning to carry out attacks in the Xinjiang region during unrest between ethnic Uighurs and Han Chinese last year. The announcement comes as the region prepares for the first anniversary of the ethnic riots that caused an estimated 200 deaths. Dilxat Raxit, a spokesman for the World Uighur Congress based in Europe, called the timing of the announcement politically motivated (al-Jazeera).

Australia: Julia Gillard became the country's first female prime minister (NYT) after Kevin Rudd stepped down amid plunging approval ratings and rising opposition from his center-left Labor Party.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Convicts Americans for Terror

A Pakistani court gave five American men a ten-year jail sentence for conspiring to commit terrorist attacks (BBC) on Pakistani soil and funding banned jihadist groups. The men accuse the FBI and Pakistani police of torturing and trying to frame them.

AFRICA: Cocaine's Shift to Europe Harms Africa

Despite overall production declines, the cocaine market is shifting (Reuters) from the United States to Europe, increasing traffic flows through West Africa and severely destabilizing transit countries in the region, according to a report from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.

Somalia: A global naval coalition has failed to halt Somali-based piracy, writes CFR's Michael L. Baker. More effective would be a broader approach to maritime policing that integrates African authorities.

AMERICAS: Developing Nations to Attend G8 Meeting

Canada has invited ten African, Caribbean, and Latin American nations to take part in the Group of Eight summit in Ontario this weekend in hopes of refocusing the G8 toward issues relating to development, peace, and security (FT). The Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute has called on G8 leaders to fulfill their commitments to sharply reducing hunger (VOA).

Venezuela: President Hugo Chavez, struggling with lower oil output and a recession, plans to nationalize of a number of oil rigs (FT) owned by a U.S. company.

EUROPE: Obama, Medvedev Meet to Kick Start Trade

President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will seek to kick start trade and investment (Reuters) when they meet in Washington Thursday. Medvedev's tour of California's Silicon Valley a day earlier reflected his desire to attract talent and investment capital (VOA) from the region.

Belarus: Russia has restored gas flow to Belarus (MarketWatch) after the country settled its debt of nearly $200 million to Russia's state-controlled gas firm Gazprom.

 

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