[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, June 23, 2010

 

June 23, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Obama to Decide McChrystal's Fate - China Currency Shift to Impact Business - Spain Approves Labor Reforms - Bank Tax Gains Ahead of G20 Top of the Agenda: Obama to Decide McChrystal's Fate U.S. President Barack Obama will meet with his top commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, after controversial remarks (NYT) the general and his staff made about senior Obama administration officials. McChrystal has prepared a letter of resignation, though Obama has not decided whether to accept it when they meet. In the Rolling Stone article, McChrystal and his aides spoke critically of nearly every member of Obama's national security team and called Obama "uncomfortable and intimidated" during his first meeting with McChrystal. The remarks exposed the enmity within Obama's foreign policy team and growing doubts even within the military about whether Afghanistan can be won. The infighting is coupled with deepening problems in the Marja and Kandahar missions, widespread corruption in the Afghan government, and allies who say they want an exit. Analysis: In the Wall Street Journal, Eliot Cohen says despite McChrystal's military genius and extraordinary leadership, his Rolling Stone interview violated norms of civilian-military relations, and Obama should fire him. In the Washington Post, Anne Kornblut and Karen Tumulty say in deciding McChrystal's fate, Obama must "assert authority over the military without alienating it or fueling skepticism about his own fitness as its commander." McChrystal's ill-advised remarks shouldn't overshadow the credit he deserves for putting the right strategy in place to turn around a failing war effort, writes CFR's Max Boot in the New York Times. Firing one general is enough for one war; let him stay--and talk honestly about strategy, writes CFR's Leslie Gelb in the Daily Beast. Background: Read the Rolling Stone profile of McChrystal. While senior military officials are urging support for Afghanistan operations, Afghans are fearful about the Kandahar offensive and uncertain about U.S. plans to start withdrawing troops in July 2011, says CFR's Stephen Biddle. MIDDLE EAST: Resignation for Iraq's Electricity Boss Approved Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki accepted the resignation of his electricity minister, after frequent power outages in the summer heat spurred violent protests (AFP). Israel: Israel launched a surveillance satellite that will reportedly be used to spy on Iran's nuclear program (BBC). Sanctions may slow Iran's nuclear drive but won't halt it, says Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour, who calls for shifting to a containment policy that helps "expedite political transformation." PACIFIC RIM: China's Currency Shift to Impact Corporations China's decision to end the yuan's de facto peg against the dollar could have a significant impact over time on the fortunes of Chinese and foreign corporations, the Wall Street Journal reports. By ending the yuan's peg to the U.S. dollar, China will deflect pressure over its currency policy at the upcoming G20 meeting. But tensions will persist over the pace of reform, says CFR's Steven Dunaway. Japan: Japan's finance minister suggested the Japanese economy will benefit from a stronger yuan (WSJ), despite concerns it could hurt Japanese manufacturers that have shifted production to China in search of cheaper output costs. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India's Maoists Declare 48-Hour Strike India's Maoists called for a two-day strike (HindustanTimes) in five states--West Bengal, Jharkhand, Orissa, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh--over the government's decision to divest 10 percent in Coal India and Hindustan Copper Bangladesh: Garment factories in Bangladesh reopened after days of violent protests (AFP) by workers demanding better wages. AFRICA: Netherlands to Help Combat Somali Piracy The Netherlands agreed to a NATO request to deploy a submarine off the coast of Somalia to combat piracy (BBC). Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe threatened to walk away from the Kimberley Process (SWRadioAfrica) on diamond certification if it does not get approval from the international diamonds trade watchdog to export rough diamonds from its Marange region. AMERICAS: Argentina's Debt-Swap Looking Hopeful Argentine stocks and bonds were buoyed by positive speculation (MercoPress) about the results of its major debt exchange, which the country is hoping will improve its financial standing nearly a decade after its sovereign default. Jamaica: Jamaican authorities captured accused drug lord (NYT) Christopher "Dudus" Coke at a checkpoint outside of Kingston, after a furious search for him set off violent clashes that left more than seventy civilians dead. EUROPE: Spain Approves Labor Reforms Spain's parliament voted in favor of labor reforms (BBC) designed to bring down high unemployment, including promoting youth employment and cutting the cost of firing workers. Russia: Russia further tightened gas (DeutscheWelle) cuts to Belarus, to 60 percent of normal levels, in a dispute over unpaid debt. Russia doubled its reduction of deliveries after Belarus announced plans to block the transit of Russian gas to elsewhere in Europe. TRANSNATIONAL: Bank Tax Gains Ahead of G20 The proposal to levy a global tax on banks is gaining ground (WSJ), with Britain including the policy in its new emergency budget and Germany and France pledging similar action in coming months. The upcoming G8 and G20 conferences mark a shift to a "multipolar age," particularly if the G20 is able to agree on a continuing path to a stable global recovery, says CFR's Stewart Patrick.

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