Monday, June 1, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] BOLETIN : CFR.org Daily News Brief, June 1, 2009



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June 1, 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Geithner presents plan for global rebalancing in China meetings.
- GM prepares for bankruptcy.
- News reports indicate North Korea is preparing new missile test.
- Pakistan lifts some Swat curfews opening way for civilians to flee area.

Top of the Agenda: Geithner in China

Timothy Geithner, in his first trip to China as U.S. Treasury Secretary, presented a plan for the United States and China to work together to rebuild the global economy and restore growth. In a speech today at Peking University, Geithner stressed that there is much that both Washington and Beijing need to do to rebalance the world economy. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-uW0ZhqxrL0piU%404295317-qNmY4SACfRBg6 He called for China to make its currency more flexible in exchange for fiscal reforms in the United States (FT). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-7GSLYQxib5UQM%404295318-crs2jqnMoLMH6 He also said China would need to diversify its economy beyond relying so heavily on exports for growth, and that Washington, in return, would focus on mitigating its ballooning deficit to protect massive Chinese investments in U.S. government debt (NYT). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-kwlFbllJJTjRc%404295319-nPr5vU1o0Ktmg In short, the Wall Street Journal reports, Geithner's speech was an appeal for both c
ountries to "overhaul their economies" and
establish a rebalanced global economic order. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-mD3Z70SKJA.MQ%404295320-5fu08qGJh./Bo

Chinese media focused on Geithner's implication that Beijing should play a more substantial role in global economic policymaking (CCTV). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-V0JG7q/.A/5nE%404295321-bnbVbzagcA.OI China Daily says the primary goal of Geithner's trip, which has included meetings with several leading Chinese economic policymakers, has been to reaffirm Beijing's faith in U.S. dollar-backed assets and allay concerns that Washington's budget deficit and loose monetary policy will prompt inflation, undermining Chinese holdings of both the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-ondnaBAfP.ECI%404295322-9vWXyvAD.lXRU

Bloomberg notes that despite "hand-wringing," demand for U.S. financial assets is in fact as high as ever. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-uL/9CslkECqtE%404295323-NJxQlkQLrlj0s

The economic backdrop in Washington is somewhat gloomier today, however, given the imminent bankruptcy of General Motors, the U.S. automaker. The Washington Post reports the U.S. government will push GM into bankruptcy today and will take a 60 percent stake in the company under a restructuring plan that some company investors say unfairly favors the United Auto Workers union. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-YR7UWmNTMxPhs%404295324-rvo/d5ImXLiRs In separate auto industry news, a judge cleared Chrysler to sell nearly all of its assets to a group led by the Italian automaker Fiat (Reuters). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-aDVyHClVviWBI%404295325-RP0s3RquHP/rE The Journal reports Ford is hoping to gain from its rivals' pain. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-IkATHo1mUITmQ%404295326-DOVOcxJ94K3w%2e

Background and Analysis:

- Here is the text of Geithner's speech. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-ZoTZlcLDwn1Mg%404295317-BpPyK3RyI0hZc

- In an op-ed, CFR's Sebastian Mallaby says China has rapidly shifted from a "diffident player in international finance" to an "impatient table-banger"--and that rhetoric so far reflects poorly on China's leaders. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-8DZiNx5yQrMgM%404295327-l4TOY9Z1gMub2

- In a recent blog post, CFR's Brad Setser argues China may have even more currency holdings than is commonly thought. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-lw84dMVnzrrvk%404295328-8LrI.in873Nts

MIDDLE EAST: U.S.-Iraq Death Toll

The U.S. military has confirmed that its death toll in Iraq rose sharply over the past month. Twenty-four servicemen were killed in May 2009, the highest toll in any month since September 2008 (BBC). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-EtNM7TEewxmyw%404295329-mc9sokuwvwgls

ISRAEL: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would not put life in West Bank settlements on hold, despite U.S. calls for a freeze in settlement construction (Haaretz). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-8jXTHVibcXS.o%404295330-7rS8.1LZs4Ja%2e

SAUDI-YEMEN: The Arab News reports talks between the king of Saudi Arabia and the president of Yemen focused on expanding coordination on counterterrorism and counterpiracy measures. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-soHoXvSMtKYoE%404295331-GK3rKaFusEFKA

PACIFIC RIM: North Korea Missile Questions

The Korea Times reports this morning that North Korea appears to be accelerating its preparations to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile, potentially further heightening tensions after Pyongyang's recent nuclear test. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-7.3TQ.3wbkFIM%404295332-VjJF9yoH.4apk

At a special summit, South Korea and the southeast Asian bloc ASEAN jointly called on North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions (Yonhap). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-oE3QFqzXbgeO2%404295333-8WH6CDj383Mc%2e

ECONOMY: The FT reports South Korean exports plummeted 28 percent year-on-year through May, worse than expected. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-YDKDRRWAg7jdg%404295334-cX93OoIkY7D5M

SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA: Swat Curfews

Pakistan lifted curfews on seven cities in the Swat Valley, bending to calls from humanitarian groups and potentially allowing thousands more civilians to flee the recent fighting in the region (Dawn). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-jPtKeaaqrBqHc%404295335-uDLlPmbDvDjGE

The Daily Times reports Pakistan's military operations in Swat could end in two to three days. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-DlVrEExmAefvE%404295336-0QZzUKWklbRI%2e\06\01\story_1-6-2009_pg1_1

Meanwhile, fighting between Pakistan's military and Taliban militants in South Waziristan left eighteen militants and two government troops dead (The News). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-V/.qImVLzqZ76%404295337-4QmB4DpbmRUBs

SRI LANKA: The BBC looks at the plight of hundreds of thousands of ethnic Tamils, displaced from northern Sri Lanka during recent fighting between the country's government and Tamil Tiger separatists. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-M7qdoRa306cNc%404295338-q8XHgTr8fO5aQ

AFRICA: Somalia Fighting

Pro-government forces retook a police station in Mogadishu after it was seized by Islamist militants (BBC). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-K.CJ0dgLs98f.%404295339-QCpesB5J4si5g

Garowe Online reports tens of thousands of people have fled Mogadishu as government forces and rebel fighters appear to have geared up for a major clash there. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-o2NgDdQmnYCgY%404295340-GtT/jpaJbVLlU

The Daily Nation looks at what spiraling turmoil in Somalia means for security in neighboring Kenya. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-BIZp87e6GHv4.%404295341-UOVbscZ2o.QWs

NIGERIA: After recent statements by Nigerian government officials alleging that the United States has sought to destabilize the country's government, Nigeria's foreign affairs minister said Abuja's ties with Washington are "robust and increasingly strategic" in a bid to mitigate tensions (This Day). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-ytfZdr4MysE.k%404295342-0vVdZuThsMemo


AMERICAS: Cuba Agrees to Talks

Cuba agreed to start talks with the United States on a host of issues, from immigration to counterterrorism to counternarcotics (WashPost). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-zwo4AkIetJhqk%404295343-X.Mw/tCwyCthU

El Universal reports an autonomous advisory agency affiliated with Venezuela's government has warned that further government nationalizations could have adverse economic consequences. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-vYbWvGzgSdS.U%404295344-nRLM2nSOd3dOU

PANAMA: The Los Angeles Times reports Panama is pushing ahead with an ambitious plan to expand its iconic canal, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-/IJar2vx5JizQ%404295345-1BO1a5XqWKaaY

EUROPE: South Ossetia Elections

The first elections in the breakaway territory of South Ossetia since last year's clash between Russian and Georgian troops there seem likely to bolster the political fortunes of the territory's separatist leader, AFP reports. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-0X4KoJqSCucZk%404295346-ofYdugO0WxeCM

RUSSIA: The Moscow Times reports the Russian energy firm Gazprom is seeking to cash in on the liquefied natural gas market. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-G6pf1jm2QyJAU%404295347-rzNvW.yoxOIPA

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