Tuesday, June 2, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] BOLETIN : CFR.org Daily News Brief, June 2, 2009



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June 2, 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Intelligence officials say North Korea may have appointed Kim's successor.
- Obama discusses Israel, Middle East, ahead of trip.
- Geithner encounters skepticism on U.S. assets in China.
- Pakistan military frees 79 students held by militants.

Top of the Agenda: Kim's Successor?

South Korean media reported this morning that North Korean government officials have sworn their allegiance to the youngest son of Kim Jong-Il, establishing him as his ailing father's successor. Yonhap reports South Korea's intelligence agency told lawmakers that Kim had definitively chosen his third son, Jong-un. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-tPtArEiRHK8GE%404299082-V9cAlOF1AH9s%2e This, the article points out, is the first official word to come out of South Korea's government on the matter after months of media speculation following Kim Jong-Il's apparent stroke last year.

Questions remain, at this point, about who's actually in charge in North Korea. The BBC says North Korean officials were reportedly told to switch their allegiance to Kim Jong-un following the country's May 25 nuclear test. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-yxSnBfoFLeSXI%404299083-PIA8XZRi1hJGI The news may have implications for how policymakers interpret the recent ratcheting-up of tensions. The BBC article cites analysts who say the nuclear test and subsequent missile tests could be aimed at helping Kim Jong-Il solidify power.

Background:

- The Korea Times has a profile of Kim Jong-un. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-FNxM4No.KJNxE%404299084-HLGRXfeU48dow It contradicts the idea that he is already controlling power and says North Korea appears to be grooming him to step in as his father's successor within the next few years.

- This Council Special Report examines how the United States and the world should prepare for regime change in North Korea. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-jaD9l.CP2CszE%404299085-.Fg2NugSQG1AA

- This Backgrounder looks at policy options for the United States in a post-Kim Jong-Il North Korea. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-GIb42Td3arWHA%404299086-SQWPtacZ/0Ypk

- In a new CFR analysis, four experts address the policy options available to influence Pyongyang. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-8leZZZsrUIYNQ%404299087-I4IPzF2kGFEP6

MIDDLE EAST: Obama Mideast Trip

The BBC has an interview with U.S. President Barack Obama today ahead of his upcoming Middle East trip. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-ihPkieZaLOkYc%404299088-HUvuRnGkTWjeI Obama reaffirms U.S. support for a Palestinian state and says the formation of such a state is also in Israel's interest. He also says that he favors "tough, direct diplomacy" with Iran, and called for patience with respect to Israel's apparent rejection of U.S. pressure to halt Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Obama also did an interview with NPR and said he believes the United States must be honest with Israel with respect to the settlement issue. He said, however, that he believes the United States can continue its strong support for Israel while at the same time improving relations with the Muslim world. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-MxweCEmN2SIZw%404299089-AaleMop83EaYA

SAUDI: Saudi Arabia's cabinet yesterday reviewed the results of late May OPEC meetings and said it would support an oil price between $75 and $80 a barrel, saying such a price is "fair" (Arab News). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-aSwt2zg2DRq0A%404299090-Jw.sGd8b84A/%2e

PACIFIC RIM: China on Geithner Visit

The Chinese news source Global Times reports U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's assurances that Chinese assets are safe in U.S. dollar-backed securities have "fallen on deaf ears." http://m1e.net/c?101077382-ygmGcUl1q8Wlw%404299091-Gt3NFUZ58uz5w

INDONESIA: Campaigning has begun for Indonesia's July presidential vote. The BBC says the current president is the frontrunner. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-12f647mWYkv86%404299092-yPOyTNk4WHqXA

SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Fighting

Pakistan's military announced that it has recovered seventy-nine students and school staff members kidnapped recently by militants in the Guryum area in the tribal region (Dawn). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-qRSJX1r16y9qo%404299093-CbcAdX3goH59g

The BBC reports a Pakistani court has ordered the release of the leader of an Islamic charity, Jamaat-ud-Dawa, suspected of being a front for the group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is accused of the Mumbai attacks (BBC). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-4z9OpdWLgqQTs%404299094-LNZOmvbP/LbWI

This CFR Backgrounder profiles Lashkar-e-Taiba http://m1e.net/c?101077382-L6yUOQkq1iXFw%404299095-tt2ONYWEOTZAQ

AFGHANISTAN: A suicide bomber killed six people near Bagram airfield, north of Kabul, in Afghanistan (Quqnoos). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-sMiGaEfqA0AuM%404299096-jLYUj.VffVVjs

AFRICA: West African Combat Force

The Ghanaian paper Public Agenda reports that the West African economic bloc, ECOWAS, is planning to create a standby military force, with troops drawn from fifteen different countries. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-e824og/w.0ZZI%404299097-gYlw/BHK1zOy%2e

SOMALIA: A new report from Oxfam argues that the humanitarian crisis in Somalia is the worst Africa has seen in many years. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-AM47LOdSikL7s%404299098-hMvFCzjxHOhTM

AMERICAS: Remittances Plunge

Remittances from the United States to Mexico fell at a record pace in April from the year before (AP). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-KVuFzUCkXgVrU%404299099-8cxIhEz5i.Y66

EL SALVADOR: El Salvador installed its first leftist president, a former TV host who says he intends to model himself after Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (LAT). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-I7K5lcppNOXdI%404299100-ZIL5uKhnIwY1g

EUROPE: Russian Banking

Moscow's central bank raised the reserve requirements on Russian banks and plans to raise it further by August (Moscow Times). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-M931g7/7E4B8k%404299101-8IH3zzvj/RzpY

BRITAIN: The Guardian reports a "radical cabinet shakeup" could be in the wings following the expected resignation of Britain's home secretary Jacqui Smith. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-mix16rn/z.spY%404299102-97nU62wtD1.3c

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