Monday, June 21, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, June 21, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

June 21, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- China Signals Currency Revaluation
- Iran Bans Two IAEA inspectors
- BP Oil Spill Costs at $2 Billion
- Russia Cuts Belarus Gas Supply

Top of the Agenda: China Signals Currency Revaluation

China's yuan surged Monday, sending a signal ahead of the G20 summit that China will allow more currency flexibility (Reuters). China's central bank has pegged the currency to the U.S. dollar since mid-2008, enduring Western criticism that the yuan is undervalued and gives China an unfair world trade advantage. The yuan rose by .45 percent to as high as 6.7969 per dollar--the biggest intraday rise since China revalued in 2005--after the central bank announced over the weekend that it would allow the yuan greater flexibility. The central bank ruled out a one-time revaluation of the currency, arguing it was close to fair value. Many economists expect the currency to continue to strengthen in coming days, though at a moderate pace.

Analysis:

Both China and the United States wanted a flexible exchange, but both sides timed their messaging on revaluation (WSJ) for political gain. China wanted to extract the maximum diplomatic reward from its move while giving as little ground as possible, and the United States knew China would not respond to overt pressure.

On the Daily Beast, Gordon Chang says the yuan won't change much and that China just wants to deflect international pressure ahead of the G20 and buy time for its exporters.

In a recent CFR.org roundup, six experts offer differing takes on whether China is a currency manipulator and discuss prudent U.S. pressures on Beijing.

Background:

This Backgrounder examines the origins of the China-U.S. economic imbalance.

MIDDLE EAST: Iran Bans Two IAEA inspectors

Iran banned (AP) two UN nuclear inspectors from entering the country because they disclosed to the media the contents of a "false" report on the country's disputed nuclear program before the IAEA reviewed it.

Sanctions may slow Iran's nuclear drive but won't halt it, says Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour, who calls for shifting to a containment policy that helps "expedite political transformation."

Iraq: Hundreds of angry protesters hurled stones at provincial council offices in southern Iraq Monday, amid growing rage over power rationing (AFP) in the summer heat.

PACIFIC RIM: Japan Considers Tax Hike to Address Debt

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan renewed his call for tax reform (Reuters), including a possible doubling of the sales tax to rein in Japan's huge debt.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India Ups Stakes on 1984 Bhopal Disaster

India may increase compensation (Bloomberg) for victims of the 1984 toxic gas leak at Union Carbide in Bhopal, which killed at least 3,800 people. The country will also seek extradition of Warren Anderson, the former chairman of Union Carbide, from the United States.

Afghanistan: Six NATO soldiers were killed (AFP) in three separate incidents in southern Afghanistan, where U.S.-led forces are mounting an aggressive campaign to flush out Taliban militants. Separately, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates urged Congress to pass legislation to allocate more funding (WSJ) for the war in Afghanistan by the beginning of July.

While senior military officials are urging support for Afghanistan operations, Afghans are fearful about the Kandahar offensive and uncertain about U.S. plans to start withdrawing troops in July 2011, says CFR's Stephen Biddle.

AFRICA: Nigeria's Jonathan Waits on Election Plans

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan said it was too soon to announce (Bloomberg) whether he will run in next year's presidential election because it would damage his government's effectiveness.

South Africa: South Africa's biggest union said it was hopeful fresh wage negotiations with state-owned power utility Eskom could avert a strike that threatens to disrupt electricity supply (Reuters) during the World Cup.

AMERICAS: BP Oil Spill Costs at $2 Billion

BP said it has now spent $2 billion (WashPost) responding to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

President Obama's vow to make BP pay, and Congress' tough questions to the oil industry, highlight a tense debate over oil policy.

Colombia: Colombians are holding a run-off election (BBC) to choose a successor to outgoing President Alvaro Uribe, after ex-defense minister Juan Manuel Santos came close to winning on May 30.

EUROPE: Russia Cuts Belarus Gas Supply

President Dmitry Medvedev ordered Russian gas monopoly Gazprom to start cutting supplies to Belarus (BBC) due to outstanding debt.

Poland: Polish presidential elections moved to a runoff (AP), after results showed the interim president and parliament speaker, Bronislaw Komorowski, is leading the identical twin of the former president, Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

TRANSNATIONAL: BRIC Countries Await Agricultural Boom

Emerging economies Brazil, India, China, and Russia will enjoy an agricultural boom (MercoPress) over the next decade as production stalls in Western Europe, according to a new UN-OECD report.
 

EXPLORE CFR'S WEBSITE
Regions  Issues  Experts Publications About CFR
 
Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook.

Privacy Policy
The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties.

Council on Foreign Relations
58 East 68th Street
New York, NY 10065
Tel. +1 212.434.9400
Fax: +1 212.434.9800

Learn about this and other newsletters offered by the Council on Foreign Relations.

To pause your subscription, to switch between HTML and text-only versions of the newsletter, to change your email address, or to unsubscribe, click here.
Email list management powered by http://MailerMailer.com

__._,_.___
Recent Activity:
Red Democratica 10 years "On line" (1998-2008)!
Http://reddemocratica.blogspot.com
Boletin Diario :
Http://reddemocratica01.blogspot.com
Foro Debate :
Http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eleccion

Ahora en FACEBOOK : Red Democratica

Http://www.caretas.com.pe/2000/1631/articulos/protesta.phtml
Http://www.caretas.com.pe/2000/1612/articulos/debate.phtml

Celebrando 10 anos "On Line"..2009

Keep the candle burning

I have a dream
http://www.stanford.edu/group/King/about_king/interactiveFrame.htm

FORUM TPSIPOL: RED DEMOCRATICA (1998-1999).
Informacion : Http://tpsipol.home-page.org

Para enviar un message , enviar a: eleccion@yahoogroups.com
Para suscribirse al Forum , enviar un mensaje a : eleccion-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
Para salir del Forum, enviar un mensaje en blanco : eleccion-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
MARKETPLACE

Stay on top of your group activity without leaving the page you're on - Get the Yahoo! Toolbar now.

Get great advice about dogs and cats. Visit the Dog & Cat Answers Center.

Get real-time World Cup coverage on the Yahoo! Toolbar. Download now to win a signed team jersey!

.

__,_._,___
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)