Monday, August 17, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, August 17, 2009

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

August 17, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

-Afghan election nears; final day of campaigning.

-North and South Korea agree on cross-border cooperation.

-Iran releases French detainee on bail.

-Six hundred arrested in Nigerian police raid.

Top of the Agenda: Afghanistan Preps for Election

Ahead of Thursday's presidential polls in Afghanistan, top opposition candidate Abdullah Abdullah held a campaign rally (Reuters) in Kabul's National Olympic Stadium for thousands of his supporters today, underscoring his recent momentum in the campaign. Incumbent President Hamid Karzai is leading in the polls, but not by enough to avoid a run-off against Abdullah, who has strong support among the country's ethnic Tajiks.

Abdullah failed to appear the night before at a two-hour presidential debate (Guardian) between Karzai and two other leading opposition candidates. In the debate, Karzai emphasized his accomplishments in office, especially infrastructure construction.

Separately, the United Nations and the United States expressed concern over the return of exiled warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum. Dostum, who has been widely characterized as a "kingmaker" in the election (Quqnoos), returned to Afghanistan with approval from the government after his supporters threatened to withdraw their electoral support for Karzai.

Analysis:
The New York Times says the Taliban campaign to disrupt the elections may hurt Karzai.

The Wall Street Journal looks at Karzai's failure to complete the construction of the so-called "ring road," a highway meant to connect Afghanistan's cities. The project has been plagued by insurgent attacks. U.S. officials in the country say the Afghan government must be able to show it can "have a road network and can keep it open."

Fred Kagan, a member of Gen. Stanley McChrystal's Initial Assessment Group, says the United States must send more troops (WashPost) to Afghanistan if the military operation there is to be effective.

CFR's Stephen Biddle, also part of McChrystal's panel, says victory in Afghanistan will be dependent on improving the Afghan government's capabilities.

Background:
The BBC has a Q&A on the Afghan vote.

Reuters has a Factbox on Dostum.

MIDEAST: Bail for French Citizen in Iran

Iran freed on bail French teaching assistant Clotilde Reiss after she was charged with spying (PRESS TV). French President Nicolas Sarkozy's office said Reiss would remain in the French embassy in Tehran until the court reaches a verdict in her case.

Moussavi: Iranian opposition leader Mir Hussein-Moussavi announced the creation of a new "grass-roots and social network" to promote democracy in Iran (NYT). The group will be named the Green Way of Hope, in a nod to the signature color of his campaign and the widespread post-electoral demonstrations.

PACIFIC RIM: Koreas Reach Agreement

North and South Korea agreed to ease some border restrictions (Yonhap), including allowing cross-border tours for South Koreans and more family reunions. The agreement came after talks in Pyongyang between North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il and Hyun Jung-eun, chairwoman of South Korea's Hyundai Group.

Myanmar: Myanmar freed a U.S. citizen (WSJ) who was recently sentenced to seven years in jail for breaking the terms of Myanmar pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest. Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) met with Myanmar's Senior General Than Shwe to request John Yettaw's release. Webb also urged Shwe to overturn the government's decision to add eighteen months to Suu Kyi's house arrest for Yettaw's visit.

Japan: Japan's economy has emerged from recession (AP), growing for the first time in five quarters.

AFRICA: Mass Arrests in Nigeria

Nigerian police arrested more than six hundred people (Times of Nigeria) in a raid on the Darul Islam community in the state of Niger. Darul Islam came under scrutiny after last month's violence between police and the Boko Haram Islamic group, but Nigerian police said no weapons were found at Darul Islam's settlement.

Gabon: Bruno Ben Moubamba, an independent presidential candidate, began a hunger strike (BBC) to demand that Gabon's presidential election be postponed amid reports of irregularities in voter registration. Ruling Gabonese Democratic Party's candidate Ali Ben Bongo, son of late President Omar Bongo, is the favorite to win in the election, which is scheduled for August 30.

AMERICAS: Coal Fired Plants

The Washington Post looks at the possible effect of the climate-control legislation pending in the U.S. Congress on coal-fired power plants.

In an interview with CFR, climate expert Eileen Claussen says U.S. domestic climate legislation might pass in 2010, but that a global climate agreement, set to be discussed in Copenhagen in December 2009, is dependent on U.S. policy.

Canada: Canada is launching military exercises, known as Operation Nanook, in its Arctic north. The exercises are meant as a show of the country's strength in the resource-rich region, the BBC reports.

EUROPE: Russia Bomb Attack

A suicide bomb attack (RIA Novosti) in the Russian republic of Ingushetia killed at least nineteen and injured about eighty others. Ingushetia President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov blamed the attack on Islamic rebels.

TRANSNATIONAL: Radiation Poisoning Drug

Der Spiegel looks at a new drug that may protect against the effects of radiation poisoning.

 

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