Thursday, August 27, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, August 27, 2009

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

August 27, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

-Japan's elections.
-Israeli settlement freeze proposal.
-U.S., Afghan forces attack clinic.
-Dalai Lama to visit Taiwan.

Top of the Agenda: Japan Prepares to Vote

Japanese voters appear poised to oust the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been in control of the country's parliament almost continuously for the past fifty years, in this Sunday's elections.

Voters, discontent with the LDP (NYT) as they cope with the economic crisis, could give the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) more than three hundred seats (AFP), a majority, in the 480-seat lower house of Japan's parliament. Such a victory would put the DPJ in control of the Japanese government (CNN) for the first time it the party's history.

A DPJ election could mean changes in the U.S.-Japan relationship. The Japan Times reports the DPJ is considering changes to the U.S.-Japan Status of Forces Agreement to include a clause on environmental pollution at U.S. bases in Japan. The revision would allow Japanese officials to conduct inspections of environmental conditions on the bases.

Analysis
In an Expert Brief, CFR's Shiela Smith says a change in Japanese power could strain the U.S.-Japan alliance, and says the Obama administration will need to "be patient" through the country's political transition.

Reuters says a DPJ victory could spell warmer relations between Japan and China.

TIME assesses the DPJ's electoral platform, and says some of its proposals may not go far enough to repair deeper problems in the Japanese economy.

A DPJ victory could spark Japanese consumer confidence just as it begins to emerge from its worst post-war crisis, Bloomberg reports.

Background
A CFR Backgrounder looks at the rise of the DPJ.

The DPJ's platform in the election, including "five pledges" on government spending, childrearing and education, pensions and medical care, regional sovereignty, and employment/economy, is available here.

MIDEAST: Settlement Freeze

Haaretz reports Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented a proposal in a meeting with U.S. Middle East Envoy George Mitchell to freeze settlement construction in the West Bank for nine months. The proposal would exclude some 2,500 housing units that are already being built. The United States will respond to the plan in a meeting next week in Washington between Mitchell and Israeli adviser Yitzhak Molcho, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak's chief of staff, Brig. Gen. Mike Herzog.

Iraq: Iraqi Shiite leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim died of lung cancer (NPR) in a hospital in Iran. Hakim led the powerful Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council.

In an interview with CFR, veteran reporter Jane Arraf says the United States may have to reexamine its policy of leaving security under Iraqi control in urban centers after recent major bombings in Baghdad.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Clinic Attack

U.S. and Afghan forces attacked a clinic (BBC) in Afghanistan where a Taliban commander was being treated for injuries. Twelve militants were killed when U.S. helicopters struck the clinic, according to local officials. NATO said one soldier died and seven militants were arrested.

Earlier, Taliban militants stormed a hospital (Pajhwok) in eastern Paktika province, and twelve of the attackers were killed in an ensuing clash with coalition forces, Afghan officials said. Six other Taliban fighters were arrested.

A CFR interactive timeline chronicles the U.S. war in Afghanistan.

Drug Trade: The New York Times reports on former Afghan defense minister's Marshal Muhammad Qasim Fahim's alleged involvement in drug trafficking, and the awkward position that could put the United States in if he becomes Afghanistan's vice president.

PACIFIC RIM: Dalai Lama to Visit Taiwan

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou will allow the Dalai Lama (Taipei Times) to visit the country next week to comfort survivors of Typhoon Morakot, which killed hundreds earlier this month. The visit could strain Taiwanese-Chinese relations (Guardian).

Timor-Leste: A new report from Amnesty International says perpetrators of the 1999 violence in Timor-Leste still enjoy impunity, a decade after the country voted for independence.

AMERICAS: UNASUR Meeting

Presidents from twelve Latin American countries will discuss on Friday Colombia's controversial deal (NPR) to allow increased U.S. troop access to its military bases, at a meeting of UNASUR, the Union of South American Nations, in Argentina. Several Latin American leaders have expressed anger over the plan, and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has threatened to break diplomatic relations with Colombia.

Exports: The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) forecasts that exports from Latin American and Caribbean nations will hit the lowest point in seventy years (Dow Jones) in 2009. According to ECLAC, the region's exports will shrink by 11 percent this year.

Peru: Two Peruvian soldiers and four Shining Path rebels were killed in a shootout on a drug-smuggling route (Reuters) out of Peru's top coca-growing valley. The incident was the first time this year the Peruvian military said it killed rebels from the Maoist group.

AFRICA: Zuma to Zimbabwe

South African President Jacob Zuma is making his first presidential visit to neighboring Zimbabwe (AFP), where he is expected to criticize Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's "defiant behavior," African National Congress Secretary General Gwede Mantashe says. Zuma visits the country amid rumors that Mugabe is in bad health (Guardian).

Somalia: A French security adviser who escaped captivity by Hizbul-Islam militant group described his escape to the BBC, denying allegations that he killed three militants as he fled.

EUROPE: Karadzic Discusses War

Former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic told AFP in an interview that the world's "great powers" were behind the breakup of Yugoslavia and the war in Bosnia well before he "came into political life." Karadzic is in detention in The Hague awaiting trial on war crimes charges.

Ireland: The Wall Street Journal reports on the devastating impact of economic crisis on Ireland, evidenced by the country's shrinking soccer leagues.

TRANSNATIONAL: Artificial Trees

The Institution of Mechanical Engineers is proposing the creation of a forest of 100,000 "artificial trees" to help absorb the carbon emissions, the BBC reports.

 

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