[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, April 8, 2010

 

April 9, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - U.S. and Russia Negotiate Iran Sanctions - Netanyahu Backs Out of Nuclear Summit - No Yuan Breakthrough in China Talks - U.S. Supports Pausing Sudan Elections Top of the Agenda: U.S. and Russia Negotiate Iran Sanctions The United States and Russia began negotiating support (WashPost) for new sanctions on Iran as part of the Obama administration's push for a UN Security Council resolution. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev privately said Russia's support had limits, though the two countries pledged to support imposing sanctions as soon as this spring. Within the UN's fifteen-member council, the United States also faces pushback from China, Brazil, and Turkey. Medvedev objected to sanctions--such as embargoing oil deliveries--that would punish Iran's people economically, financially, or by spurring regime change. Top White House officials said sanctions on Iran's energy sector were "not off the table." Russia has significant energy interests (WSJ) in Tehran. Medvedev's cooperation would help persuade Chinese President Hu Jintao, who will meet with Obama in Washington Monday. Analysis: On RealClearWorld.com, Jamsheed Choksy and Carol E.B. Choksy say fiscal and trade sanctions are often skirted through third parties in multiple countries that are difficult to monitor or regulate. As a result, Iran boasts that despite sanctions, its trade with the United States totaled $385 million last year. Iran's Revolutionary Guard will likely be the target of UN Security Council sanctions that could be ready within weeks, says expert Kenneth Katzman, while Congress focuses on preventing U.S. companies from selling gasoline and refining equipment to Iran. Background: This CFR Backgrounder examines Iran's nuclear program. MIDDLE EAST: Netanyahu Backs Out of Nuclear Summit Benjamin Netanyahu decided not to take part (Guardian) in next week's nuclear security summit in Washington amid mounting Arab and Muslim pressure on Israel's stockpile of atomic weapons. PACIFIC RIM: No Yuan Breakthrough in China Talks U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan did not result in breakthroughs (WSJ) on China's currency policy, but economists and officials say Beijing is closer to allowing the yuan to appreciate. This CFR Backgrounder examines the China-U.S. economic imbalance. Australia: The Australian government suspended the approval (SydneyMorningHerald) of any new Sri Lankan and Afghan asylum seekers--80 percent of all boat arrivals over the past sixteen months--to curb the country's immigration problem. Read CFR's Asia Unbound blog, featuring timely analysis from CFR's Asia experts. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Ousted Kyrgyz Leader Holds On Ousted Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev is refusing to step down (al-Jazeera), despite fleeing the capital after opposition leaders claimed control of the government amid gruesome protests. Kyrgyzstan's interim government is considering inviting (FT) Russian troops to act as peacekeepers as it struggles to restore order. Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka's ruling coalition led in early polling results (WSJ) for parliamentary elections, a hopeful sign for President Mahinda Rajapaksa's bid to change the constitution with a needed two-thirds majority. AFRICA: U.S. Supports Pausing Sudan Elections The United States said it will consider supporting (Reuters) a brief pause in Sudan's national elections for the sake of greater credibility, an idea Sudan's UN ambassador rejected. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memo presents the likely triggers of renewed civil war in Sudan and discusses the U.S. policy options for preventing it from happening and mitigating its consequences. South Africa: The World Bank granted South Africa, the continent's biggest economy, a controversial $3.75 billion loan (Reuters) to develop a coal-fired power plant to secure the country's power supply. AMERICAS: Mexico's Sinaloa Drug Cartel Rules U.S. authorities believe Mexico's Sinaloa cartel has edged out the rival Juarez gang for control over drug trafficking routes through Ciudad Juarez, the heart of the country's drug war, the Associated Press reports. A new shift in U.S.-Mexico security cooperation that focuses on border surveillance and the underpinnings of drug violence is a good long-term approach, but will require patience on both sides, says CFR Latin America expert Shannon O'Neil. Chile: Chile's new president Sebastián Piñera plans to issue a ten-year bond (WSJ), its first issue on international markets in more than seven years, to help pay for an estimated $30 billion in reconstruction from February's earthquake. EUROPE: Investors Warn Greece Needs Bailout Investors are warning (BBC) that Greece will need an IMF and EU bailout after this week's sharp falloff in investor confidence in Greek bonds. TRANSNATIONAL: Defining the State The Economist examines the difficulties in defining what constitutes a country. It finds there is no universal definition but instead there are degrees of recognition--from full diplomatic ties to denying a state's existence.

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