Wednesday, April 28, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily News Brief, April 28, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

April 28, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Greece Roils Global Markets Again
- Iraqiya List Calls for Caretaker Govt
- Indian, Pakistani PMs to Meet in Bhutan
- Officials May Burn Gulf Oil Spill

Top of the Agenda: Greece Roils Global Markets Again

Global markets tumbled for a second day over concerns that Greece's debt crisis would spread (NYT) to other European countries and uncertainty in negotiating an IMF-EU bailout package. Rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Greek debt three notches to "junk status" and Portugal's debt by two notches. The euro fell to its lowest level this year, while the cost of insuring the debt of Greece, Portugal, and Spain against a default rose to record levels.

A Greek official said the International Monetary Fund is considering increasing its 15 billion euro loan (WSJ) to Greece by 5 to 10 billion euros. Some European countries are concerned that the agreed packages might not be big enough. IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Khan arrives in Berlin Wednesday for talks with German officials on the Greek aid package. Germany's delay has contributed to investors' concerns that the bailout package would not come soon enough.

Analysis:

In the Financial Times, David Marsh says the unexpected German backlash on Greece's bailout reflects the fact that "leading German figures never explained that large deficits in countries such as Greece would eventually impinge on Germany's own finances."

S&P's decision to downgrade Greek debt may lead to softened pre-conditions for an IMF-EU bailout and a swifter European response, says CFR's Marc Levinson.

This Center for Geoeconomic Studies blog post argues that even if Greece had remained outside the eurozone, as some have discussed, its dependence on euro borrowing would only have increased.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraqiya List Calls for Caretaker Govt

The Iraqiya list--a Sunni-backed bloc that came out ahead in Iraq's election--called for the creation of an internationally monitored caretaker government (Reuters) to prevent "theft" of the election.

A judicial ruling in Iraq could delay the formation of a new government until the fall, increasing the risk of a planned U.S. drawdown of troops by the end of August, says CFR's Brett McGurk.

Iran: Iranian opposition leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi called for protests (AFP) to mark the first anniversary of the June 12 presidential election.

PACIFIC RIM: China Imposes More U.S. Chicken Tariffs

China is setting its second set of tariffs (WSJ) on U.S. chicken products in less than three months, combating what it considers unfair subsidies for U.S. chicken producers.

Thailand: A soldier died and eighteen other people were wounded in another clash (AP) between Thai government forces and Red Shirt protesters on a highway north of Bangkok.

Read CFR's Asia Unbound blog, featuring timely analysis from CFR's Asia experts.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Indian, Pakistani PMs to Meet in Bhutan

Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will talk on the sidelines of a regional meeting in Bhutan (AP), a sign of ameliorating relations between the nuclear rivals. Separately, a suicide bomber attacked a security checkpoint in northwest Pakistan (al-Jazeera), killing at least four policemen and wounding twelve others.

Afghanistan: An Afghan tribal chief was killed (AFP) in the southern Afghan province of Kandahar, following a slew of assassinations blamed on Taliban insurgents.

A pending American military offensive in southern Afghanistan is buoying hopes for a return to government control, but New York Times reporter David Rohde says success could be short-lived.

AFRICA: UN Adopts Piracy Prosecution Resolution

The UN Security Council adopted a resolution to make it easier to prosecute pirates (BBC) caught off the coast of Somalia amid concerns that the Kenyan legal system is overburdened by the issue.

Rwanda: A Rwandan government official denied the country faced a political crisis (Reuters) in the run-up to August's presidential election, following arrests of top military officers and alleged suppression of opposition and independent media.

AMERICAS: Officials May Burn Gulf Oil Spill

Following an offshore drilling disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. officials are considering setting fire (WSJ) to the resulting giant oil slick to keep it from reaching the shoreline .

Mexico: Mexican President Felipe Calderon told executives from the country's tourism sector he would continue the fight against organized crime (LAHT) to make Mexico a safer tourist destination.

EUROPE: Ukraine OKs Russia Black Sea Fleet Deal

Ukraine ratified a deal with Russia (DeutscheWelle) that grants Kiev a large discount on gas in exchange for extending the lease of Russia's Black Sea Fleet based in Sevastopol.

 

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