[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, July 27, 2010

 

July 27, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Leaks Not a Security Threat - Iran Wants Fuel Swap Talks - N. Korea Quiet on War Games - BP Posts $17 Billion Loss Top of the Agenda: Leaks Not a Security Threat The WikiLeaks release of 91,000 classified military documents is unlikely to undermine congressional support for the Afghan war (WashPost), push the Obama administration to shift policy, or represent a threat to national security troops' safety, many analysts believe. However, the reports seem to contradict CIA chief Leon Panetta's claim last month that there has been no intelligence on Osama bin Laden since 2003 (Telegraph), showing repeated instances in which U.S. forces saw signs of the al-Qaeda chief. The Pentagon is hunting for the whistleblower (BBC) who leaked the documents. WikiLeaks has tried to raise its profile (WSJ) by partnering with news organizations when it released the Afghan war documents. In an interview with Der Spiegel, one of the news outlets, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange says the material sheds light on the "everyday brutality and squalor of war" and asserts that it will change public opinion. Analysis The WikiLeaks reports are important not because of their information, but because they come at a time of growing public disillusionment about the Afghan war, says CFR'S Daniel Markey. "The Pentagon Papers they're not," writes CFR's Max Boot in Commentary, adding the only thing new he learned was that the Taliban have used heat-seeking missiles to attack coalition aircraft. Although the contents of the WikiLeaks records is generally known, the documentation in "excruciating detail" makes "the most powerful case yet for withdrawal from Afghanistan sooner rather than later," says this STRATFOR analysis. Background This CFR Backgrounder examines Pakistan's military intelligence agency, which has long been thought to be meddling in its neighbors' affairs, and experts have stepped up accusations that the agency has links to terrorist groups. MIDDLE EAST: Iran Wants Fuel Swap Talks Shortly after EU foreign ministers approved additional sanctions on Iran that would include blocks on oil and gas investment, Iran said it was prepared to return to negotiations on a nuclear fuel swap without conditions (Guardian). This op-ed argues that as Iran's second-largest trading partner, Germany should lead the way in making sure new EU sanctions on Iran have teeth (LAT). Iraq: Two car bombs targeting Shiite pilgrims (AP) during a religious festival in Karbala killed twenty-five people, according to Iraqi police and hospital officials. Sunni extremists are suspected. PACIFIC RIM: N. Korea Quiet on War Games, So Far U.S. and South Korean naval ships fired artillery and anti-submarine bombs (AP) off South Korea's east coast on the third day of military maneuvers designed to warn North Korea. So far, North Korea has not responded with promised retaliation. Experts say the United States must continue to work toward North Korea's denuclearization and prepare for volatility following leadership change in Pyongyang. EUROPE: BP Posts $17 Billion Loss BP posted a loss of $17.15 billion for the second quarter (DowJones), related to current and future costs for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill. It also plans to sell around $30 billion in assets, in addition to appointing Robert Dudley to replace Tony Hayward as chief executive. France: French President Nicolas Sarkozy confirmed the execution of French hostage Michel Germaneau (CNN) by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in Mauritania and vowed punishment for the group. This CFR Backgrounder discusses the recent renewal of terrorist activity by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, an Algerian Islamist group turned pan-Maghreb jihadi organization. SOUTH ASIA: Burma Leader in Rare India Visit Burmese junta leader General Than Shwe was greeted in Delhi (BBC), where he is meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on a rare state visit that is being condemned by human rights groups, who oppose Burma's crushing of pro-democracy protests by Burmese monks three years ago. AFRICA: U.S. Fight Vowed on African Corruption At the African Union summit in Munyonyo, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said Washington would seize money stolen by corrupt African leaders (AllAfrica) that has been hidden in the United States and the West. He added that the United States is prepared to support the development of African judiciaries to deal with corruption. Sudan: Britain's new minister for Africa, Henry Bellingham, says Britain wants to trade more with Sudan (Reuters), particularly its oil and services sector, despite voicing concerns about Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and genocide. AMERICAS: Immigrant Groups Protest Fingerprint Initiative Immigrant advocates are criticizing the federal expansion of a program that deports illegal immigrants by checking their fingerprints upon arrest (AP). They say expansion of the program, which has been adopted by twenty-six states, will have greater impact than the controversial Arizona law. Cuba: Raul Castro chose not to speak at yesterday's Revolution Day celebrations (NYT), marking the first time when Castro or his brother Fidel did not speak at events commemorating the 1953 rebel assault on the Moncada Barracks, which is often seen as the birth of the revolution against president Fulgencio Batista.

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