Friday, July 30, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily News Brief, July 30, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

July 30, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Arab League Green-Lights Talks
- Mideast Anticipates UN Hariri News
- Deadliest Month for U.S. Afghan Troops
- Tougher U.S. Tone on China

Top of the Agenda: Arab League Green-Lights Talks

The Arab League agreed to support Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in holding direct peace talks with Israel, giving political cover to Abbas (CSMonitor), who has been locked in a struggle for legitimacy with Hamas. Despite public insistence that he will not negotiate unless Israel agrees to a laundry list of demands, Western officials and independent observers believe Abbas will change course by September, giving the White House a boost going into midterm elections (Telegraph).

An anonymous source told Israel Radio that former Israeli justice minister Haim Ramon met with Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat--at the behest of Israeli President Shimon Peres--to try to convince him to refuse direct Middle East peace talks (Haaretz).

Analysis

Though the White House has argued that an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement is a vital national security issue, CFR President Richard Haass says that a deal would not affect critical U.S. foreign policy issues such as Iraq or Afghanistan.

Direct talks between Israelis and Palestinians could be a political trap for Obama, warns an article on ForeignPolicy.com

Background

This CFR Crisis Guide explores the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

MIDDLE EAST: Mideast Anticipates UN Hariri News

The UN tribunal for Lebanon is reportedly set to announce that Mustafa Badr al-Din, a close relative of former Hezbollah terror chief Imad Mughniyeh, is the main suspect in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri (JPost). Concerned that tensions may rise if the tribunal indicts any members of Hezbollah, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah (BBC) have traveled to Lebanon.

This CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum discuses the plausible scenarios of a war in Lebanon, its implications for the United States, and U.S. policy options.

Syria is looking to regain its influence in Lebanon (DailyStar), both with the government and with Hezbollah.

Iraq: Militants flew an al-Qaeda flag over a Baghdad neighborhood (AP) after killing sixteen security officials and burning some of their bodies.

SOUTH ASIA: Deadliest Month for U.S. Afghan Troops

Three U.S. service members were killed in Afghanistan yesterday, bringing the toll for July to at least sixty-three and making it the deadliest month for American forces (CNN) in the nearly nine-year war.

Afghanistan: Defense Secretary Robert Gates asked the FBI to help the Pentagon investigate the leak of secret U.S. documents on Afghanistan (Bloomberg), calling the leaks potentially "dangerous." The Taliban in Afghanistan have threatened to behead informers (HindustanTimes) revealed by the WikiLinks documents.

PACIFIC RIM: Tougher U.S. Tone on China

The Obama administration has taken a tougher tone with China (WashPost) as part of a diplomatic effort to both welcome China's rise in some areas but also confront Beijing when it conflicts with U.S. interests. One example is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent statement that the peaceful resolution of competing sovereignty claims to the South China Sea is a U.S. national interest.

Japan: Investigators in the United Arab Emirates are looking into whether a Japanese tanker damaged in the Straits of Hormuz (AP) was involved in a collision. Investigators have backed away from the theory that a rogue wave hit the boat, and the boat's owners, Mitsui OSK, believe the boat may have been attacked (BBC).

AFRICA: Postponement Possible on Sudan Referendum

Sudan's ruling National Congress Party suggested that the January 2011 referendum on whether southern Sudan should secede (SudanTimes) may be postponed until a border demarcation process is completed. Some suspect the move is an effort to push the south to back down over areas in dispute (BBC), including lucrative oil fields near the boundary.

U.S.-led international support for southern Sudan's self-determination should be affirmed and backed by preparation to recognize and assist an independent south, says this CFR Contingency Planning Memo.

Democratic Republic of Congo: Up to 140 people are feared dead after a boat carrying passengers and goods capsized on the Kasai River (BBC), a tributary of the Congo River.

AMERICAS: Sinaloa Leader Killed in Gun Battle

One of the top three leaders of Mexico's Sinaloa drug cartel, Ignacio "Nacho" Coronel, was killed in a gun battle with Mexican army soldiers (AP). Mexican federal authorities also arrested sixty-two police officers in Baja, California (CNN), who are suspected of ties to organized crime and drug trafficking.

Mexico and the United States can learn much from Colombia's example in fighting drug-related violence, says Robert Bonner in Foreign Affairs.

United States: The United States' ability to identify the source of a nuclear weapon (NYT) used in a terrorist attack is fragile and eroding, according to a report released by the National Research Council.

EUROPE: Greek Truckers Defy Government

Greece's 33,000 licensed truck drivers, who walked out on Monday to protest plans to cut the price of new trucking licence, which are a key provision in Greece's financial rescue package, defied an emergency government order to return to work (Reuters).
 

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