ESPECIAL FORUM TPSIPOL : RED DEMOCRATICA11/JUNIO 2011"Cuando caigo en la desesperanza, recuerdo que a lo largo que la historia el metodo de la verdad y el amor siempre ha vencido. Hay tiranos y asesinos y, por algun tiempo, parecen invencibles. Pero al final, siempre caen.." (M.K.Gandhi)
http://www.youtube.com/wat Real Hope Is About Doing Somethingby Red Democratica on Friday, December 17, 2010 at 11:43pm
Hope knows that unless we physically defy government control we are complicit in the violence of the state. All who resist keep hope alive. All who succumb to fear, despair and apathy become enemies of hope. (..) Hope has a cost. Hope is not comfortable or easy. Hope requires personal risk.(..)Hope is not for the practical and the sophisticated, the cynics and the complacent, the defeated and the fearful... Washington PostComentarios de La Republica en espanol."Es posible lograr el crecimiento equitativo"http://www.larepublica.com.pe/10-06-2011/washington-post-sobre-humala-es-posible-lograr-el-crecimiento-equitativo Comentarios Agencia Andina ; " Elección de Humala abre posibilidad de crecimiento equitativo, destaca Washington Post . http://www.andina.com.pe/Espanol/Noticia.aspx?Id=H78%2FvU92UEU%3D http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/perus-crossroads/2011/06/09/AGL4zqNH_story.html 09/june/2011 Editorial Board OpinionPeru's crossroadsOLLANTA HUMALA, Peru's president-elect, has in a matter of months jumped from one major Latin American political camp to another. A former coup-plotting colonel, Mr. Humala used to be a follower of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and his authoritarian brand of socialism; Venezuelan money may even have funded Mr. Humala's campaign. But after the first round of the election — in which three competing moderate candidates divided the centrist vote and eliminated one another, leaving a choice between populists of the left and right — Mr. Humala reinvented himself. He imported Brazilian advisers and claimed to have adopted the model of former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who successfully mixed free-market policies with social welfare and stuck to democratic norms. With Mr. Humala due to take office at the end of July, Peruvians have to hope that his conversion is real. For now the jury is out: Peru's stock market plunged 12 percent Monday as the presidential runoff result became clear, but it rebounded after Mr. Humala reiterated his commitment to respect private property and the Peruvian constitution and pursue responsible fiscal policies. On Thursday the president-elect embarked on a regional tour that started in Brazil — and excluded Venezuela. Simple logic ought to draw the president toward the continent's emerging giant rather than Mr. Chavez's basket case. Thanks to its pursuit of free-market policies, which have attracted foreign investors to its rich mineral reserves, Peru already has the fastest-growing economy in Latin America over the past decade, and its poverty rate has dropped by half. Mr. Lula, who led Brazil for eight years before being replaced by his handpicked successor this year, pioneered ways of redistributing the fruits of capitalism more quickly to the poor; that arguably has been the missing element in Peru's success story. Mr. Chavez, in contrast, presides over the only Latin American economy to remain mired in recession. Soaring inflation, shortages of staple goods and one of the world's highest rates of violent crime are the products of his 1960s-style socialism; only his persecution of opponents and his dismantling of democratic institutions keep him in power. Mr. Humala's professed allegiance to Mr. Chavez led to his defeat in the last Peruvian election, while his switch to Mr. Lula got him elected. So on both substantive and political grounds, Mr. Humala has a powerful incentive to follow the Brazilian course. If he does, Brazil will be reinforced as the continent's emerging leader, while Mr. Chavez — who once aspired to be a latter-day Simon Bolivar — will spiral further toward oblivion. And Peru will have a reasonable chance of finding a path to equitable growth. The Guardian UK Comentarios de la Republica en espanol. " "Perú, revolución al modelo brasileño". http://www.larepublica.com.pe/09-06-2011/diario-guardian-dedica-su-editorial-ollanta-humala Peru: Revolution, the Brazilian wayhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jun/09/peru-revolution-brazilian-way-editorialPeru's elite swooned at the electoral choice that confronted the nation, but the country needs a role model
Peru has just held the sort of election that can give democracy a bad name: a choice between Aids and cancer, according to the country's revered novelist Mario Vargas Llosa. In the first round of the presidential contest the centrist vote split, allowing a runoff between Ollanta Humala, a former army officer promoting a leftist brand of Andean nationalism, and Keiko Fujimori, whose claim to the job rested on the fact that her father was Peru's controversial president for most of the 1990s. Reluctantly, Mr Vargas Llosa, along with a narrow majority of his fellow citizens, decided Mr Humala was the better candidate, and he won at the weekend. The striking thing is how he did it. When Mr Humala last ran for the job, in 2006, he adopted the language, policies and dress of the Venezuelan president, Hugo Chávez. Back then, Chávez's Bolivarian revolution seemed to many to offer a decent hope of dragging South Americans out of poverty – flamboyantly anti-capitalist and anti-US, and apparently effective and popular. But Chávez has gone out of fashion, especially in Peru, as the reality of his rule has soured. A poll last year by Latinobarómetro found only 18% of Peruvians held a positive view of Chávez and only 23% thought Venezuela played a positive role in Latin America. As a result, this time round, Mr Humala distanced himself from his old ally and promoted himself as a second Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former Brazilian president and icon of the South American resurgence. Lula cut poverty dramatically by promoting economic growth and responsible spending. So, in a lesser and more unequal manner, did Peru's outgoing president Alan García. Lima is full of new restaurants and shopping centres, and its population demonstrably richer. President Humala's task will be to spread the benefits to the Peruvian highlands, where things have changed less. He will be constrained (to the relief of some Peruvians) by the constitutional requirement to serve only a single term, by congress and by a hostile media, mostly in the hands of business and – as elsewhere in South America – determinedly opposed to everything, good and bad, about Chávez. Despite valid scepticism, there is a chance Humala could succeed. Latin America is already richer than outsiders think, its total economic output a third bigger than India's. Democracy is established; military dictators in mirrored sunglasses have been swept aside by leaders attempting to appeal to a common hunger for education and a middle-class lifestyle. Peru's elite swooned at the electoral choice that confronted the nation, but the country needs a role model and it has found an effective one in Brazil. The Economist Comentario de la Republica , en espanol. "Humala tiene la oportunidad de ser un Presidente exitoso" http://www.larepublica.com.pe/09-06-2011/economist-humala-tiene-la-oportunidad-de-ser-un-presidente-exitoso http://www.economist.com/node/18805443 June , 9th 2011 Peru's presidential run-offVictory for the Andean chameleon Having reinvented himself as a moderate, Ollanta Humala has an extraordinary opportunity to marry economic growth with social progressJun 9th 2011 | LIMA | from the print edition FIVE years ago Ollanta Humala, a former army lieutenant-colonel with no previous political experience, came close to winning Peru's presidency by avowing the statist nationalism practised by Venezuela's Hugo Chávez. On June 5th he achieved his goal, narrowly defeating Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of a populist former president, by 51.5% to 48.5%. To do so Mr Humala eschewed Mr Chávez, modelled himself on Brazil's social-democratic former president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, dropped a leftist government platform he had unveiled only months before and forged last-minute alliances in the centre. Many Peruvians are consequently wondering just which Mr Humala will start governing their country on July 28th. The uncertainty prompted the Lima stockmarket index to plunge 12.5% on June 6th, its biggest-ever daily fall, though it later recovered most of its losses. Shares in several multinational mining companies with operations in Peru fell sharply too. In victory Mr Humala has tried to strike a reassuring tone while also offering hope to poorer Peruvians who make up his electoral base. "It's not possible to say that the country is progressing when 12m people are living in miserable conditions without electricity or running water," he told cheering supporters. But he also promised "a government of national consensus" that would "promote investment and the free market, which is the consolidation of the internal market". Mr Humala's transition team, announced this week, mixes leftist academics with centrist former officials from the government of Alejandro Toledo (2001 to 2006), a defeated rival who backed him in the run-off. Pundits called for Mr Humala to put an end to the uncertainty by naming key cabinet appointments quickly. These might include Beatriz Merino, a capable centrist, as prime minister. And Mr Humala is said to want Julio Velarde, who is respected by investors, to stay as Central Bank governor. Mr Humala's journey to the centre began when he adopted many of Lula's campaign tactics and brought in political advisers from Brazil's ruling Workers' Party. But in the campaign for the first round of the election, on April 10th, he was still proposing a "nationalist" economic policy and pledged to unpick contracts that have brought private investment in mining, gas and infrastructure. Mr Humala topped that poll, but with just 31.7% of the vote. His votes were mainly those of the Peruvians, especially in the southern Andes, who have yet to feel much benefit from an extraordinary economic boom that has seen growth average 5.7% a year over the past decade and poverty fall from 48% in 2005 to 31% in 2010. Mr Humala's immense good fortune was that the centrist vote was split between three candidates, and so his opponent in the run-off was Ms Fuijimori. As president from 1990 to 2000, her father, Alberto Fujimori, laid the foundations of the economic boom with free-market reforms but ruled as an elected autocrat. He is serving a 25-year sentence for human-rights abuses and corruption. Many Peruvians who abhor Mr Humala's politics could not bring themselves to vote for his opponent. Her defeat means that Mr Fujimori will remain in detention and probably quashes his hopes of founding a dynasty. Whereas Ms Fujimori surrounded herself with her father's conservative aides, Mr Humala moved closer to the centre. He dropped his original platform and plan to change the constitution. He swore on the Bible to maintain Peru's economic framework. In the end he probably owed victory to the support of Mr Toledo, who won 16% of the vote in April, and of Mario Vargas Llosa, Peru's Nobel laureate for literature. The main doubt about Mr Humala is that he is not Lula. Brazil's former leader is a politically astute and pragmatic former trade-unionist, who fought a military regime. As an army officer, Mr Humala led one military rebellion and backed another by his brother, who is a fascist. In many ways he embodies the continuing appeal of authoritarianism in Peru. Part of his appeal to poorer voters was that he promised to be harsh on crime and corruption. The main reason for optimism about his government is that Peru's recent success will constrain his freedom of manoeuvre. Mr Humala's leftist coalition has only 47 of the 130 seats in Congress. Mr Toledo, whose party has 21 seats, is well placed to help—and to put limits on change. It helps, too, that Mr Chávez is a spent force whose main achievement is to have squandered an oil boom. When it comes to models, Brazil trumps Venezuela. In addition, the election showed that there is broad public support for continuity in economic policy. But it also showed that many Peruvians want the government to do more on social policy. Some of Mr Humala's proposals are sensible enough. He wants to expand a small conditional cash-transfer programme, introduced by Mr Toledo and aimed at helping the poorest Peruvians. He promises to expand child care, and introduce pensions for those who lack them (though unless done carefully this risks undermining efforts to draw more Peruvians out of the vast informal economy). Thanks to the inexplicable neglect of social policy by Alan García, the outgoing president, Mr Humala has the chance to take some easy and popular steps. Trickier will be whether he shows the courage and political intelligence needed to improve the quality of government in Peru, perhaps the country's biggest weakness. The most controversial issue will be the treatment of mining and natural-gas investment. Mr Humala wants a windfall tax on mining, but says he will talk to the companies first. Much will depend on the details. He seems to have watered down his previous opposition to the export of natural gas. But he backs a law to give a veto—rather than the right to consultation—to Amerindian communities over mining development on their lands. The new president's new-found moderation applies to foreign affairs as well. Gone is the Chile-bashing of the nationalist caudillo who fanned Peruvians' visceral dislike of the neighbour which twice defeated them in 19th-century wars. The United States is a "strategic partner", he said this week. He is likely to follow Brazil's lead in South America. That means he may drop Mr García's plan for a common market with Chile, Colombia and Mexico. Since he takes over when Peru's circumstances have rarely been better, Mr Humala has an extraordinary opportunity to be a successful president. It has taken spectacular political incompetence on the part of the centrists who engineered the boom to hand the country over to the candidate whom its business and political establishment dismissed as "anti-system". They can draw some solace from the fact that Mr Humala won by pledging to uphold many of the system's pillars. The Nation http://www.thenation.com/blog/161180/ollanta-humalas-win-peru-joins-latin-americas-left-turn With Ollanta Humala's Win, Peru Joins Latin America's Left Turn June 7, 2011
Wikileaks also reveals that that same year the Mexican right and the US State Department worked together to defeat the populist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, leading many in the United States to gloat that the "left turn" in Latin America had run its course. Humala's victory suggests otherwise. Here's just some of what has happened since 2006: In Bolivia, Evo Morales presided over the ratification of a new social-democratic constitution and was re-elected as president in 2009 with 64 percent of the vote. In Ecuador, Rafael Correa also easily won reelection and ratified a new constitution that guarantees social rights and puts tight limits on privatization. Recently, Ecuadorians likewise voted on ten progressive ballot initiatives, passing them all. They included the strict regulation of two blood sports: banks are now banned from speculation and bulls can no longer be killed in bull fights. And last year in Brazil, the trade unionist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva left office the most popular politician on the planet, handing over the presidency of one of the world's largest economies to Dilma Rousseff, a former urban guerrilla and economist who vows to continue to try to make Brazil a more humane and equal nation. All of these national left political projects—from Venezuela to Uruguay—have their problems and shortcomings, and are open to criticism on any number of issues by progressive folk. But combined, the Latin American left can claim a remarkable achievement: It has snatched the concept of democracy away from neoliberals and the corporate privateers who came close to convincing the world that democracy equals deregulated capitalism and returned the term to its more humane, sustainable definition. In Latin America, democracy means social democracy. So considering the otherwise bleak global landscape, the return of the Latin American left, now well into its second decade, is cause for great cheer. What does Humala's victory mean for Peru? Most importantly in the short run, it has halted the return of Alberto Fujimori's style of death-squad neoliberalism. Humala's opponent was Fujimori's daughter, Keiko, who pledged to free her jailed father, who was convicted of murder, kidnapping and corruption. In the long run, many Peruvians, particularly those outside of Lima, voted for Humala because they have seen little benefits from the country's celebrated macroeconomic performance over the last decade, driven by the high price of silver, zinc, copper, tin, lead and gold—which comprise 60 percent of the country's exports. Over 30 percent of Peru's 30 million people live in poverty and 8 percent in extreme poverty. In rural areas, particularly in indigenous communities, more than half of all families are poor, many desperately so. Humala has promised to address this inequity with a series of pragmatic measures—a guaranteed pension to people over 65; expanding healthcare in rural areas, including the construction of more provincial hospitals; an increase in public sector salaries, to be paid for with a windfall profit tax on the mining sector. In terms of foreign policy, Humala's election is another victory for Brazil in its contest with Washington for regional influence. If Fujimori had won, she would have aligned Peru politically with Washington and economically with US and Canadian corporations. Humala, in contrast, will tilt toward Brazilian economic interests. Indeed, the Peruvian historian Gerardo Rénique said that the election, while representing an important victory for democratic forces, could also be understood in part as a contest between Brazil and the US over Peruvian energy and mineral resources. In this perspective, one could say that it didn't matter who won the Peruvian election: the Amazon lost. Here then might be the question that determines the success of Humala's presidency: As he tries to put into place his "growth with social inclusion" agenda, will he be able to balance the conflicting interests of his Brazilian allies and the social movements that elected him, many of which are fighting for sustainable development and local control of resources? In addition to reviving social democracy, the other major accomplishment of the renewed Latin American left has been to dilute the entrenched racism that has defined the continent for centuries. In Bolivia, Ecuador, Chile, Brazil, Venezuela and other countries, Native Americans and peoples of African descent have led a remarkable, if still incomplete, democratization of politics and culture. Peru, with its 45 percent Amerindian population, has largely been left out of this process. In fact, some say that racism has deepened over the last decade, with the mining boom wreaking havoc on the dark-skinned Andean countryside and Amazonian lowlands while financing the rise of luxury condos and malls in white, middle-class Lima. So however hard it might be for Humala to take on international capital—Peru's stock market plunged 12 percent the day after his election—an equally difficult challenge will be to tackle Peruvian racism. "El Indio Humala" lost Lima by a wide margin, driven mostly not by fears he would turn Peru into Chávez's Venezuela but into neighboring Indian-governed Bolivia. Candidate Humala did his best to deflect these concerns. President Humala, however, will have to confront this racism directly if he is to succeed in democratizing Peru. After all, even before all the votes where in, tens of thousands of his supporters began to fill the country's plazas, including Lima's. They raised high the rainbow wiphala flag that became ubiquitous in Bolivia, during the rise of the social movements that brought Evo Morales to power. Today, it is waved throughout the Andes as a symbol of indigenous pride and sovereignty. Publié le 07 juin 2011 à 07h35 | Mis à jour le 07 juin 2011 à 07h35 June, 7th, 2011 Humala, le Lula du Pérou? http://www.cyberpresse.ca/international/amerique-latine/201106/07/01-4406692-humala-le-lula-du-perou.php
Cyberpresse vous suggère
BBC UK 7 June 2011 Last updated at 06:14 ET Peru election: Is Ollanta Humala the great transformer?It was the narrowest of victories but Ollanta Humala has won the Peruvian presidential election with the promise of a "great transformation". He has pledged to make the country "more just and less unequal". Mr Humala's promises of change mirror his own transformation from red T-shirted firebrand to sharp-suited, more mature politician. He seems a far cry from the figure of the 2006 election race who touted his friendship with Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. It was a relationship that lost him the election in a second round run-off to Alan Garcia. Then, a majority of Peruvians voted for Mr Garcia as the "mal menor", or least bad candidate. Now, by vowing to respect democratic norms and the free market, he has gained new support without losing the backing of those who voted for him five years earlier. For his supporters, he was the last line of defence against a candidate they feared would vindicate the legacy of Alberto Fujimori, Peru's jailed former leader. In April 2009, Fujimori was convicted of corruption and authorising death squads. By keeping the former president's daughter, Keiko Fujimori, from being elected, Mr Humala has "saved democracy", according to Nobel Literature Laureate Mario Vargas Llosa. The odds were stacked against Mr Humala, as most of the powers-that-be lined up behind his opponent - in spite of her father's legacy - because she appeared to adhere more closely to the free-market model. Much of the media were also heavily biased against Mr Humala - Mr Vargas Llosa withdrew a syndicated weekly column from Peru's main broadsheet, El Comercio, in protest, calling the newspaper a "propaganda machine" for Keiko Fujimori. Mr Humala and Ms Fujimori won the top slot in April's first round that saw three centrist candidates cancelling each other out. Mr Humala's message seems to have resonated with the one-in-three Peruvians who live in poverty and feel excluded from the country's economic boom. "In social, political terms, the economic model has run its course," said poet and columnist Mirko Lauer before the result. "Peru is growing but the [current] president has an approval rate of 30%; people have had enough of the economics of growth." Outgoing President Alan Garcia has funnelled much of the proceeds of the mining boom into building road, ports and other infrastructure projects. According to Carlos Monge, an investigator with the Peruvian Centre for the Promotion of Development, social spending has not been a priority. Mr Garcia managed to sustain Peru's impressively high growth by prioritising foreign direct investment and mining, oil and gas companies, often at the expense of the environmental concerns of indigenous or rural Peruvians. At the same time, festering social conflicts across the country discouraged millions of dollars of investment. But Mr Humala's detractors say he is already driving away crucial investment in the mostly foreign-owned mining sector. He plans, for example, to impose a windfall profits tax of up to 40% on firms, in order to build hospitals and schools. Some investors greeted news of his victory by selling stock, with Peruvian shares registering their biggest-ever daily fall, more than 12% of their value in a single day. Investors will be closely watching to see who Mr Humala appoints to the positions of finance minister and central bank chief. In regional terms, Ollanta Humala's victory will add Peru to the varied and growing bunch of left-leaning countries in the region, including neighbouring Bolivia, Ecuador and Brazil along with Argentina, Uruguay, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and, of course, Venezuela and Cuba. Continue reading the main story "Start QuoteEnd Quote Ollanta Humala Peruvian President While the US has welcomed Mr Humala's victory, some analysts say it will shift Peru further from its sphere of influence and more towards that of its neighbours, in particular the main regional power, Brazil. "Economic and political integration is taking place very rapidly in Latin America. The United States is on the other side of that," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Centre for Economic and Policy Research. But, in a recent interview ahead of the election results, Mr Humala told the BBC that in emulating Brazil's market-friendly economics with social programmes that benefit the poor, he had left ideology behind. "I don't believe in turning the problems of Latin America into ideological battles. We've been through that and it ended in bloody civil wars," Mr Humala said. "What we need to do is solve the problems of inequality, illiteracy and malnutrition in Latin America. "What does ideology have to do with that? It doesn't matter what colour the cat, as long as it catches mice." Whether paraphrasing the father of China's market economy, Deng Xiaoping, will be enough to calm some foreign investors' nerves remains to be seen. But his electoral promises of boosting the salaries of public sector workers, increasing the minimum wage, free daycare and a state pension for all over-65s have been surefire vote-winners. RED DEMOCRATICA Fundado Dic. 1998 Lima-Peru Lista Debate :Http://groups.yahoo.com/group/eleccion/messages BLOG : Http://reddemocratica.blogspot.com Facebook : Red Democratica http://www.facebook.com/editprofile.php?sk=basic&success=1#!/ Twitter : Http://twitter.com/red_democratica Boletin diario : Http://reddemocratica01.blogspot.com Comentarios a :red_democratica@yahoo.com Keep the candle burning 2011 ! |
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