Friday, September 11, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, September 11, 2009

 

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

September 11, 2009

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Obama faces resistance over Afghan War.

- Pakistan arrests a senior Taliban leader.

- Taiwan's ex-president jailed for life.

- The United States commemorates 9/11 anniversary.

Top of the Agenda: Doubts Over U.S. War Effort in Afghanistan

U.S. President Barack Obama may face resistance from lawmakers in his own party if he decides to send more troops to Afghanistan, reports the New York Times. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told reporters Thursday: "I don't think there's a great deal of support (WSJ) for sending more troops to Afghanistan in the country or in the Congress."

A new strategy review by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, reportedly recommends more U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Gen. McChrystal has described the situation in Afghanistan as "serious," and his report, experts say, proposes a new counterinsurgency approach that focuses on securing population centers, as opposed to pursuing the insurgents in remote areas. The Obama administration has already signed off on the deployment of 21,000 reinforcements, pushing U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan to a record 68,000. According to some estimates, Gen. McChrystal may request for as many as 40,000 more troops this month.

Analysis:

In a new CFR interview, Kimberly Kagan, president of the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, says downsizing the U.S. force presence in Afghanistan would be a major mistake. Kagan, who advised commanding Gen. McChrystal on his recent strategy review, says the better strategy is adding to the U.S. military presence, especially in population centers.

CFR's Stephen Biddle, a member of Gen. McChrystal's recent strategic assessment group, says victory is achievable in Afghanistan, but only if certain steps are taken to improve the capabilities of the Afghan government.

Background:

A CFR Backgrounder profiles Afghanistan's national security forces.

A CFR Timeline tracks the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan.

MIDEAST: Iran ‘Not Prepared’ for Nuclear Talks

Iran is apparently not prepared to discuss halting uranium enrichment with the UN Security Council, according to its proposal submitted to the world body and obtained by the Website ProPublica, but is in support of a worldwide system aimed at eliminating nuclear weapons (WashPost). President Barack Obama, along with other world leaders, has called on Iran to show a willingness to discuss ending its nuclear enrichment program or face additional sanctions. But a senior U.S. State Department Official told the BBC Iran's proposal to the UN "did not really address" Washington's concerns. The New York Times, meanwhile, reports that Iran may already have enough nuclear fuel to make a bomb if it chooses.

Iraq: A huge suicide bomb detonated in a small Kurdish village near the northern Iraqi city of Mosul killed at least twenty-five and left scores wounded, according to Kurdish officials. The massive explosion has renewed fears of a widening sectarian conflict (NYT).

Lebanon: Saad Hariri, Lebanon's prime minister-designate, has resigned his post (The National), accusing opponents of blocking his efforts to form a coalition government with Hezbollah and other rival groups.

PACIFIC RIM: Former Taiwanese President Faces Life Imprisonment

On Friday, former Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian was sentenced to life in jail (BBC) on corruption charges. Chen, who had been charged with embezzling $15 million while in office from 2000-2008, has denied the charges saying they were politically motivated. Chen favored Taiwan's independence from China, while the current government has been pushing for improved relations with Beijing.

Japan: Japan's economy grew less than expected (FT) in the second quarter, according to new economic data released Friday . GDP grew 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 0.9 percent estimated by the government last month.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Arrest of Senior Taliban Leader

Pakistani security forces arrested five Taliban leaders (Al-Jazeera) in the Swat Valley, one of whom is believed to be Mahmood Khan, a senior commander. The Taliban claims that the Pakistani military arrested the men after they went to secret peace talks (CSM) with the military. Meanwhile, Pakistan is expected to ask for $2 billion (Bloomberg) to rebuild the Swat Valley, at a meeting on September 24 in New York.

AFRICA: North-South Talks in Sudan

U.S. Special Envoy Scott Gration is traveling in Sudan to encourage agreement (AFP) between North and South Sudan over issues related to a referendum, planned for 2011, on the south's possible independence . The two sides failed to agree on the terms of the referendum in the latest round of talks.

Analysts from the Enough Project break down the current U.S. approach to Sudan in this video.

Somalia: A dispute over Kismayo port in southern Somalia is causing splits (Garowe) between Islamic militants in the country.

Internet: Internet speeds are incredibly slow (CSM) across most of Africa, despite the high cost of connection.

AMERICAS: 9/11 Anniversary

Memorial services in New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania will commemorate the anniversary (CNN) of the 9/11 terror attacks. Eight years ago, al-Qaeda terrorist hijacked planes and crashed them into the World Trade Center tower, the Pentagon, and a field in Pennsylvania, killing 2,752 people. The New York Times notes "the fortress city," many New Yorkers feared to protect against a future attacks, never came to pass.

CFR's Lydia Khalil looks at New York City's sophisticated local and global counterterrorism program since the 9/11 attacks.

Fouad Ajami, adjunct fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, discusses the relationship between 9/11 and rationale for the U.S. war in Afghanistan (WSJ).

North American Summit: Wrapping up a two-day summit with Mexican President Felipe Calderón and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, President Obama promised to work (WashPost) with the two countries on greenhouse gas emissions and on ensuring that Mexico gets aid to fight drug traffickers. Obama also said action on U.S. immigration reform was unlikely until 2010.

EUROPE: Russia Says Sanctions against Iran Unlikely

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he thinks a new proposal from Iran offers a basis for negotiations to end the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. He said he did not believe new sanctions against Iran would be approved by the UN Security Council. Meanwhile, Israel has urged Russia to stop selling weapons (Daily Mail) to Iran. Lavrov has denied that a cargo ship that recently disappeared contained anti-aircraft missiles bound for Iran (AP).

TRANSNATIONAL: Climate Change

EU officials lowered expectations (NYT) for contributions to a global climate fund to help developing countries manage climate change. Instead, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said fast-emerging economies, like China and India, should be expected to do more to finance efforts to combat climate change.

 

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