Friday, July 23, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, July 23, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

July 23, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Europe Awaits Bank Stress Test Results
- China's Oil Spill Leaves Major Damage
- Abbas Warns Fatah on Canceled Elections
- U.S. Senate Shelves Climate Bill

Top of the Agenda: Europe Awaits Bank Stress Test Results

Investors were awaiting results of European bank stress tests of European bank stress tests (NYT) today amid concerns about whether the tests would be rigorous enough to calm doubts about weaker institutions. Bank analysts are in for a long weekend as they pore over the findings of separate reports findings of separate reports (Telegraph) on Europe's 91 largest banks to determine how Europe's financial system would cope in a new crisis. New data from the eurozone show that its weaker members are more dependent on the European Central Bank its weaker members are more dependent on the European Central Bank (WSJ) than ever before.

The euro has rallied 8 percent (Bloomberg) from a four-year low last month. Greece, Spain and Portugal have sold 50 billion euros ($64 billion) of debt since May 10, when European finance ministers created a nearly $1 trillion rescue fund and the European Central Bank started buying bonds.

Analysis:

The most important reform Europe can enact is mechanism allowing eurozone countries to fail, imechanism allowing eurozone countries to fail, which would reduce uncertainty and contagion, says Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Studies, in this CFR interview.

The euro crisis has given Europe's leaders a chance to create a coalition for reform, based on a single market, which until now has remained half-built, says the Economist.

Background:

This CFR Backgrounder looks at the sovereign debt problems in Europe and their impact on the International Monetary Fund and the European Union.

PACIFIC RIM: China Oil Spill Leaves Major Damage

China and environmental observers said there's progress on cleanup efforts on cleanup efforts on the country's largest oil spill(AP), near the northeast port city of Dalian, but that there will be significant environmental and economic damage. The cleanup includes a 165- square-mile area.

China's rapid economic growth has come at great environmental cost (FT), but this appears to be the greatest damage caused by oil. Industry analysts said the incident was likely to prompt more stringent regulation of refineries.

North Korea: North Korea has promised a “physical response” (BBC) to joint military exercises by the United States and South Korea that are scheduled to begin on Sunday.

MIDDLE EAST: Abbas Warns Fatah on Canceled Elections

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas warned his Fatah party(Reuters) that its canceling of local elections scheduled for this month because of failure to agree on candidates is a sign that if the party doesn't get organized, it will die.

The cancellation of the election damages democratic rights, makes a mockery of the interests of the Palestinian people, and hurts prospects for a lasting peace, Mustapha Barghouthi writes in Foreign Policy.

Egypt: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak spoke in a televised news conference (Reuters), appearing in good health days after a U.S. newspaper reported that the 82-year-old leader could have less than a year to live.

AMERICAS: Senate Shelves Climate Legislation

Senate Democrats shelved plans for climate legislation (LAT), probably ending hopes for broad action this year on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and other measures. The Senate will instead focus on a scaled-back plan focused on the BP oil spill, money for home-energy retrofits, and land and water conservation.

The Senate leadership's decision to shelve a cap-and-trade bill will weaken the U.S. bargaining position in world climate diplomacy, says CFR's Michael Levi.

Colombia-Venezuela: A Colombian diplomat told a meeting of the Organization of American States (MiamiHerald) that Venezuela is harboring 1500 left-wing guerillas of FARC and ELN. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez responded by announcing that he is breaking off relations with Colombia (CNN) because of the accusations.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghan Leaders Fear Marginalization

Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek politicians are expressing growing concern that Afghan President Hamid Karzai is marginalizing them in his efforts to strike a peace deal with his fellow Pashtuns in the Taliban insurgency (WashPost).

The U.S. should accept that the Taliban will control most of the Pashtun south (FT) and move to ensure that the north and west of the country do not fall too, writes Robert Blackwill, a former U.S. ambassador to India.

Pakistan: The government has extended by three years the tenure of Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani (CNN), who has overseen anti-terrorism efforts against the Taliban. Kayani's new term will begin in November, the same month he was supposed to have retired.

AFRICA: Somalia Government in Setback

Members of Somalia's presidential guard defected to al-Shabaab (NYT), the militant Islamist group that claimed the recent bombing in Uganda during the World Cup. The defection is the latest setback for Somalia's U.S.-backed transitional government, which has lost important pieces of territory in the last few days. Military chiefs from the African Union (All Africa) are meeting in Addis Ababa to hammer out a plan to confront the worsening confict between al-Shabaab militants and the government.

South Africa: Desmond Tutu (VOA), South African anti-apartheid leader and Nobel Prize winner, said he will retire from public life on his 79th birthday, Oct. 7. He said he will continue to work with a global council of statesmen called The Elders, founded by former South African President Nelson Mandela.

EUROPE: Serbia Rejects Kosovo Independence

Serbia says that it will never accept Kosovo's independence (BBC), despite Thursday's decision by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that Kosovo's 2008 declaration of independence did not violate international law. The ICJ's nonbinding ruling on Kosovo (Guardian) will do nothing to reassure other countries facing separatist disputes, says this editorial.

 

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