Tuesday, February 9, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, February 9, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 9, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Greek Bailout Predicted for EU Summit
- Gates Presses for Faster Iran Sanctions
- NATO Prepares for Flight of Afghan Civilians
- Committee to Handle French Identity Debate

Top of the Agenda: Investors Predict Greek Bailout at EU Summit

The euro began recovering from doubts about European sovereign debt, as traders predicted (FT) a possible bailout for Greece at this week's EU summit. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet left a summit in Australia early to attend the EU gathering in Brussels, allaying investors' fears that a Greek default would spread to other eurozone countries and upset the global financial recovery.

The euro rose 0.6 percent versus the dollar to trade at $1.3725 Monday, while the broader market dipped 0.9 percent. Yields on Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish sovereign debt dropped about ten basis points, reflecting hope that speculation over Greek default would end. The S&P 500 lost more than 8 percent in fourteen trading days.

Greece needs roughly $75billion in financing this year. Germany and France insist (FT) that they will not give emergency financial assistance to Greece.

Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said resorting to outside help would send "the worst possible signal" and that Greece will "tackle the deficit" (Telegraph).

Analysis:

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz says (Bloomberg) Greece's budget deficit reduction plan will prevent a default. He called for the EU to help Greece guard against "speculative attacks" in financial markets.

Wells Fargo economist Jay Bryson says (PDF) the International Monetary Fund will need to come to Greece's rescue sometime this year.

In this interview, CFR's Sebastian Mallaby discusses the impact of sovereign debt problems in and beyond Europe.

MIDDLE EAST: Gates Presses for Faster Iran Sanctions

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates pushed for prompt implementation of new sanctions (Reuters) against Iran within "weeks, not months." Iran's announcement that it will begin producing higher-grade enriched uranium marks a dangerous turning point in Iran's relations with the West, the Washington Post reports.

Yemen: The Yemen-based branch of al-Qaeda called for a regional holy war (Reuters) and a blockade of the Red Sea to cut off shipments to Israel.

PACIFIC RIM: China Sentences Quake Dissident

The Chinese government sentenced (VOA) a Chinese dissident--who investigated allegations of poor construction in earthquake-destroyed schools-- to five years in prison.

Japan: Japanese carmaker Toyota announced (JapanTimes) another global recall of the Prius and other hybrid cars with braking problems.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Sri Lanka's Fonseka Arrested

Defeated Sri Lankan presidential candidate General Sarath Fonseka was arrested (al-Jazeera) on charges of plotting to overthrow the country's government.

Afghanistan: NATO warned (Quqnoos) Afghan civilians to "keep their heads down" during the major joint military offensive in Helmand province. Helmand's provincial governor said a commission has been formed to handle displaced people.

India: India halted the cultivation (BBC) of its first genetically modified vegetable crop over safety concerns.

AFRICA: Nigerian Political Deadlock

Nigerian senators passed a motion demanding that President Umaru Yar'Adua hand power to his deputy http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8505755.stm (BBC).

Ghana: Ghana's government blocked (WSJ) the estimated $4 billion sale of a stake in a huge oil field to potential buyer Exxon Mobil by Kosmos Energy, accusing Kosmos of excluding the government from the deal.

AMERICAS: U.S. Central Bank Plans

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hopes sharing plans (WashPost) about the Fed's "exit strategy" with the public will boost market confidence.

Venezuela: Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez declared (Reuters) an "electricity emergency," due to a drought affecting the country's hydroelectric power supply, which provides 70 percent of its power.

EUROPE: French National Identity

French Prime Minister François Fillon said (FRANCE24) an "experts committee" would take over the debate on French national identity after months of divisive public debate.

TRANSNATIONAL: Climate Change Panel Controversy

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change faces accusations (NYT) of scientific sloppiness and potential financial conflicts of interest from several groups, including some mainstream scientists.
 

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