[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, May 5, 2010

 

May 5, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Times Square Bomb Suspect Confesses - North Korea and China to Talk - Iraqi Shiite Blocs Form Alliance - Greek Bailout Fails to Calm Markets Top of the Agenda: Times Square Bomb Suspect Confesses Faisal Shahzad, who was pulled from a New York flight headed for Dubai, confessed to plotting a car bombing (WSJ) in New York's Times Square and training in a terrorist camp in Pakistan. Shahzad was charged with five terrorism-related charges, and Pakistani authorities arrested several people overseas who had been in contact with him. Among those arrested were Tohid Ahmed, who had emailed with Shahzad while he was in the United States, and some members of Shahzad's family. Shahzad said he received bomb-making training in the tribal region of Waziristan bordering Afghanistan. That Shahzad was stopped only after boarding the flight has raised questions about why he was not apprehended earlier. Shahzad's name was added to a watchlist as early as Sunday. The New York Times reports at least two lapses in the government's security response: The FBI lost track of him before he drove to JFK Airport, and Emirates airline failed to act on a midday message notifying it to check the no-fly list. Analysis: In the Wall Street Journal, Sadanand Dhume says the number of Islamic terrorists from Pakistan (WSJ) can be explained by the country's creation from the Muslim-majority areas of British India in 1947, as it was the first modern nation based solely on Islam. On ForeignPolicy.com, Josh Rogin says the Times Square bombing attempt comes at a bad time for U.S.-Pakistan relations, as officials hash out a new agreement on military and intelligence cooperation. The domestic introduction of terrorist techniques may be harder to thwart than those to which U.S. homeland security became attuned after September 11, writes CFR's Steven Simon, with Jonathan Stevenson, in this Washington Post op-ed. MIDDLE EAST: Iraqi Shiite Blocs Form Alliance Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's coalition and another Shiite political bloc, the Iraqi National Alliance, said they will form a new government together (WashPost), but they have not settled on candidates for top posts. Iran: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad agreed to Brazilian mediation of a UN-brokered nuclear fuel-swap deal (Reuters). Security Council members like Brazil and Turkey want to stave off further sanctions against Iran amid a U.S. push to move forward. Monday's dueling speeches at the UN suggest a continued impasse on Iran's nuclear program, says CFR's Ray Takeyh. And Iranian politics make that unlikely to change anytime soon. PACIFIC RIM: North Korea and China to Talk North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il will likely meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao, amid speculation that North Korea would return to nuclear disarmament talks in exchange for economic aid from China (KoreaTimes). China: U.S. accusations that China is a currency manipulator fail to account for the export sector and unemployment consequences to China if they allowed the yuan to appreciate, reports the Christian Science Monitor. In this Expert Roundup, six experts debate whether the Obama administration's approach to China's currency policy is the right one, and why. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Taliban Targets Afghan Government Compound Taliban suicide attackers disguised in police uniforms targeted a government compound (LAT) in southwestern Afghanistan. A provincial council member, three policemen, and nine attackers died. Pakistan: Pakistan's army expressed doubt (AP) that the Pakistani Taliban were behind the Times Square bomb attempt, despite the insurgent group's claim. AFRICA: Somali Pirates Hijack Russian Oil Tanker A Russian warship moved in to assist (BBC) an oil tanker that was hijacked by Somali pirates off the East African coast. Nigeria: Royal Dutch Shell reported it is losing more oil from 2008 and 2009 spills in the Niger Delta, largely because of sabotaged pipelines and oil theft attempts (WSJ). AMERICAS: Amount of Spilled Oil Could Escalate In a closed-door congressional briefing, a BP executive said the damaged Gulf oil rig could spill as many as 60,000 barrels a day (NYT), more than ten times the current estimate. In this podcast, CFR's Michael Levi says the Gulf oil spill is not just a problem to clean up, but it has serious commercial implications for oil firms and has dimmed the prospects of U.S. climate legislation. EUROPE: Greek Bailout Fails to Calm Markets Greece's $147 billion bailout failed to convince financial markets (FT) that the European sovereign debt crisis would not hit other weak eurozone countries, including Portugal and Spain. Meanwhile, Greek unions launched a general strike Wednesday to protest against the government's latest austerity package (DeutscheWelle). The IMF and European leaders have gotten serious about Greece's debt, says CFR's Charles Kupchan. But the crisis also raises concerns about the eurozone's unity. Britain: British prime ministerial candidates Gordon Brown, David Cameron, and Nick Clegg made a final bid for votes (BBC) on the last day of the election campaign.

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