Tuesday, May 11, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily News Brief, May 11, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

May 11, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Doubts Remain on Euro Rescue
- Iraqi Attacks Show Militant Strength
- BP Wrestles with Oil Solution, Hearings
- Brown Quits, British Govt Negotiating

Top of the Agenda: Doubts Remain on Euro Rescue

The global market rally that followed the announcement of a nearly $1 trillion aid package for heavily indebted European countries fizzled (NYT) as analysts pondered the package's long-term implications. Some analysts doubt the wisdom of solving a debt crisis by taking on more debt. There is also the problem of moral hazard--that other countries may continue to spend recklessly because they expect to be rescued. The European central government also needs to invent new structures to administer the aid, which could prove politically unsustainable. Countries receiving support do not want other countries to permanently set their economic policies, while voters in countries giving support to do not want to financially support other countries.

The European Central Bank's decision to purchase debt from eurozone countries also raises questions about the bank's independence in setting monetary policy (WSJ).

Analysis:

In the New York Times, Roger Cohen says the European Union will fester, partly because Germany has turned away from Europe.

CFR's Marc Levinson says the eurozone will prevail, because the region has benefitted enormously from European countries joining the union.

In the Financial Times, Gideon Rachman says European countries are not prepared for the draconian measures needed to bring their budgets in line.

Background:

This CFR Backgrounder profiles five countries in the eurozone with shaky fiscal positions.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraqi Attacks Show Militant Strength

A series of attacks across Iraq--which killed 119 people and wounded hundreds--raised questions (AP) about the enduring strength of militants.

Israel: Israel will continue construction of new housing (AP) in East Jerusalem, reigniting tensions with Palestinians who say the plans could undermine new peace talks.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Suspected U.S. Drone Strike in Pakistan

At least fourteen people were killed (al-Jazeera) in an attack by a suspected U.S. drone in Pakistan's North Waziristan region, the third attack since U.S. officials said Pakistani Taliban were behind the May 1 Times Square bomb plot.

As elements of the Times Square car bomb plot point back to Pakistan, General David H. Petraeus tells CFR.org that militants in that country's tribal region are becoming increasingly linked in ambition and transnational objectives.

India-Pakistan: India and Pakistan's foreign ministers will meet in Islamabad in July to revive abandoned peace talks (AFP).

AFRICA: Carter Center Condemns Sudan Elections

The U.S.-based Carter Center questioned the outcome of Sudan's election (AFP), calling the poll "highly disorganized, non-transparent, and vulnerable to electoral fraud."

Libya: The European Union and Libya are negotiating their first cooperation pact (Reuters) aimed at promoting free trade and stemming the flow of illegal immigrants from Africa to Europe.

AMERICAS: BP Wrestles with Oil Solution, Hearings

BP said it will make a second attempt (Bloomberg) to control the leaking Gulf of Mexico oil well with another containment dome over it, as congressional hearings begin in Washington on the source of the spill.

In this podcast, CFR's Michael Levi says the oil spill is not just a problem to clean up, but has serious commercial implications for oil firms and has dimmed the prospects of U.S. climate legislation.

EUROPE: Brown Quits, British Govt Still Negotiating

Britain's Liberal Democratic party opened formal discussions with the country's Labour party on forming a parliamentary coalition after Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he would quit as Labour's leader (BBC).

British Conservatives' skepticism toward European integration could weaken the bloc and its potential as a U.S. partner, writes CFR's Charles Kupchan.

TRANSNATIONAL: The NPT and Uranium Enrichment

In the World Politics Review, Cole Harvey discusses the difficulties in containing the spread of uranium enrichment to countries outside the ring of first-order world powers.

The Review Conference of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is underway amid concerns about Iran and North Korea and disputes between nuclear haves and have-nots. This CFR Backgrounder profiles fifteen countries playing a role in the debate.
 

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