Friday, June 12, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] BOLETIN : CFR.org Daily News Brief, June 12, 2009



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June 12, 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- High turnout in Iranian vote; some analysts see sea-change regardless of winner.
- European industrial production falls, curbing recovery hopes.
- Seoul rebuffs North Korea's demands on Kaesong industrial complex.
- Attack in Lahore kills anti-Taliban cleric.

Top of the Agenda: Iranian Election Today

Iranians head to the polls today to elect a president. The Financial Times reports Iranian officials have said turnout in the vote has been "unprecedented," a trend that many analysts have said is likely to bolster the prospects of former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, the leading challenger of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-QBuIL8MyzQ4L2%404333177-R.KKsv0FuQ5Eg The Washington Post reports the Iranian voting public appears sharply polarized, more so than at any time since the country's Islamic Revolution thirty years ago, and that rifts between Iran's haves and have-nots could go a long way toward defining the poll's outcome. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-/EydoOmXpXlLU%404333178-eoQ08NdRL8YcI If no candidate attracts 50 percent of the vote, the election would go to a run-off.

The BBC notes how closely other countries--most obviously Israel and the United States--are watching the vote for signs of possible shifts in Iranian policy. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-DOyUbpuUw8mKs%404333179-Z/x6kzEgkCtqw The article notes that the timing of the election is crucial, given a new push by the United States for reengagement with Tehran. The Christian Science Monitor reports the efforts of U.S. President Barack Obama to reach out to the Muslim world could prove a wildcard in the vote, much as some analysts say it did in Lebanon's recent elections, where pro-Western, anti-Hezbollah parties defied expectations and strengthened their political position. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-Uv09qD/ifP35g%404333180-yliavr6m2.8W%2e

The New York Times reports the results of the Iranian poll could beckon a sea-change in Tehran's politics whether or not Ahmadinejad wins reelection--a strong showing of public support for moderate reformist candidates over the past few weeks has already provided a boost to some of the positions they support, the article says. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-5aTR2AYES2Jdw%404333181-t5C281VLlZW7E

Analysis:

In a new interview, Farideh Farhi, an expert on Iran, says the election process has exposed clear rifts on foreign policy within Iran's political establishment. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-vl1v/V9SzlgZc%404333182-uQB4M5CR/Q8II

In another new interview, another expert, Mohsen Milani, discusses the role of the Iranian presidency. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-/nvof0uQyHJnM%404333183-24Ewf6UbPuxEY

The BBC has a feature in which young Iranians give their perspective on the vote. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-5gwhcu1SjETo2%404333184-L82eDaxsN/Mmo

Al-Jazeera has an exclusive video interview with Mousavi. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-/yLASwjxwUGU6%404333185-3KbS2hMC3wJqA

MIDDLE EAST: Israelis on Settlements

A new poll by an Israeli polling service shows that 56 percent of Israelis think Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should reject U.S. demands for Israel to completely freeze the construction of settlements in the West Bank--an issue that has emerged as a major sticking point in U.S. efforts to revive Middle East peace talks (Haaretz). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-NZciENgEELleQ%404333186-2hMzimzBTyhXc

JORDAN: Jordan's King Abdullah met with U.S. envoy George Mitchell yesterday and told him that President Obama's stance toward the Middle East has created a positive atmosphere for peace talks (Jordan Times). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-1PJSZm7.Vbfsg%404333187-xSoHU5aLSighQ

PACIFIC RIM: Kaesong Discussions

Yonhap reports South Korean negotiators have rejected North Korea's stated terms under which it would consider resuming cooperation on the Kaesong industrial complex, which include a demand to quadruple the wages of North Korean workers at Kaesong. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-cALnctSj2E2zI%404333188-t2FAeJscDpZW%2e

JAPAN: A critical cabinet ally of Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso resigned today in what the BBC says will be a blow to Aso ahead of elections later this year. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-ZMdldN0nX77DI%404333189-qiKSeraKk2m/g

SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA: Lahore Attack

A suicide blast at a mosque in Lahore killed four people including an outspoken anti-Taliban cleric (Dawn). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-DKWMmwjtRuhmo%404333190-n5UyMSTIEUdVE

AFGHANISTAN: Quqnoos reports gun battles between government troops and militants in Afghanistan's Farah and Badghis provinces left forty-one Taliban dead and nineteen others wounded. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-ouxis.4EQ1xtU%404333191-qxOotSjUEE4Wc

AFRICA: Kenya's Budget

Kenya's finance minister transferred the country's development budget to local constituencies in an effort to kick-start the country's sagging economy and create jobs (Daily Nation). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-Wkr9gz4sYpsLk%404333192-3P32MccFhKEYY

SUDAN: The Economist reports South Sudan, which is set to become a new country in 2011, is likely to emerge as a "prefailed state." http://m1e.net/c?101077382-v2G2IbiWn5IXs%404333193-TLXzpFo6Nue7E

This CFR Backgrounder takes an in-depth look at the country's internal politics. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-w48x7flF7qh0Q%404333194-7/rkAjWsGbs.2

AMERICAS: Venezuela Clampdown

The AP reports Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez may shutter Globovision, a major television network that has come into conflict with Chavez's government. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-zIT.dveho4FJ6%404333195-es6/R5TKAwKT%2e

OIL: El Universal reports Venezuela's state oil firm PDVSA will start to pay off $13.4 billion in debt in 2010. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-AjXASSt0xpYxU%404333196-GXPuMVrvbMKqM

MEXICO: The News reports an optimistic jobs report has prompted a bump in Mexican stocks. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-Wkr9gz4sYpsLk%404333197-qEMxFocdWvMOM

EUROPE: Industrial Production

The FT reports an unexpectedly sharp fall in European industrial production has set back hopes for a rapid eurozone economic recovery. http://m1e.net/c?101077382-Bwc5acyJvFU.k%404333198-JpUTgK5P9oCF%2e

MICROSOFT: The U.S. software firm Microsoft announced it won't bundle its Internet browser Internet Explorer with its latest Windows 7 operating system in Europe, due to pending legal proceedings in an antitrust case against the company (AFP). http://m1e.net/c?101077382-u94IOp4xlQkRg%404333199-0sIiZpu9ZEcdc

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