Wednesday, May 19, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, May 19, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

May 19, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

-Thai Troops Storm Protest Area
-UN Moves Forward on Iran Sanctions
-Taliban Attacks Afghan NATO Base
-Calderon, Obama to Tackle Drugs, Immigrants

Top of the Agenda: Thai Troops Storm Protest Area

Thai army troops stormed the encampment (NYT) of antigovernment protesters in central Bangkok in a push to end demonstrations that have lasted six weeks. Protest leaders surrendered and pleaded with angry protesters to stand down. Instead, protesters lashed out, setting areas on fire and attacking banks, a movie theater, and the stock exchange. Thai media reported that thousands of protesters attacked the city halls in two provincial capitals in the country's northeast rice-growing areas. The military took control of key roads and opened fire on protesters running for cover. Military trucks with loudspeakers urged protesters to leave the area.

Thailand's standing as a major investment destination is under threat (WSJ) because of the violence and disruption to the country's economy.

Analysis:

The crisis in Thailand has gotten so grave that it verges on civil war and threatens the democratic gains made over twenty years, the legacy of King Bhumibhol Adulyadej, and Thailand's tourism-dominated economy, writes CFR's Joshua Kurlantzick.

A Bangkok Post editorial says even if protesters are dispersed from the capital's central commercial area, it will be very difficult for the government to maintain peace and order, since more anti-government groups may rise up across the country.

MIDDLE EAST: UN Moves Forward on Iran Sanctions

The UN Security Council's five main powers agreed to pursue sanctions (Guardian) against Iran immediately following the country's last-ditch diplomatic efforts, suggesting Iran may have overplayed its hand.

The nuclear fuel-swap agreement announced in Tehran put the United States in a bind. Contrary to its sponsors' intentions, it will not improve confidence between the United States and Iran, writes CFR's Michael Levi.

PACIFIC RIM: Geithner to Push for U.S. Business in China

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner plans to push for (WSJ) improved conditions for U.S. firms doing business in China during high-level talks in Beijing next week.

In this podcast, the U.S. Council for International Business' Jonathan Huneke says the Obama administration's efforts to promote trade have been insufficient.

South Korea: South Korea's foreign minister said it was “obvious” North Korea fired the torpedo that sank one of the south's warships in March, killing forty-six sailors. South Korean officials plan to present (AP) their findings about North Korea's involvement to the UN Security Council on Thursday.

CFR's Scott Snyder writes that South Korea's decision to internationalize its investigation of the Cheonan's sinking was effective, but it cast China as the enabler of North Korean provocations, which will have costs to China's interests on the Korean Peninsula.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Taliban Attack Largest Afghan NATO Base

Taliban gunmen armed with rockets and grenades attacked Bagram Airfield (AFP), the largest NATO base in Afghanistan, killing eleven militants and wounding nine soldiers. The attack came one day after a suicide car bomber killed five U.S. soldiers, a Canadian colonel, and twelve Afghans in Kabul.

Kyrgyzstan: Clashes between rival ethnic groups killed at least two people (AP) and hurt fifty in Kyrgyzstan's southern town of Jalal-Abad, raising concerns about another wave of violence after last month's revolt.

AFRICA: Kenya Signs Nile Water Agreement

Kenya signed a new agreement to alter historic water-sharing arrangements (Reuters) for the River Nile and said Egypt, which opposes the deal, had little choice but to join signatories Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda.

Africa: The UN Economic Commission for Africa reported that the continent's growth could reach 4.8 percent (BusinessDay) in 2010 after dropping more than 2 percent last year.

AMERICAS: Calderon, Obama to Tackle Drugs, Immigrants

U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Felipe Calderon will cover (Politico) Mexico's drug war and Arizona's controversial new immigration law at a meeting at the White House Wednesday.

Calderón's state visit to Washington aims to emphasize the growing cross-border partnership on Mexico's drug war, but immigration tensions could surface, says CFR's Shannon O'Neil.

Latin America: The European Union-Latin America-Caribbean leaders' summit wrapped up (MercoPress) in Madrid with unanimous agreement about the need for increased global governance and a rejection of "any form of protectionism".

EUROPE: Merkel Renews Push for Global Bank Tax

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has renewed her government's push (FT) for a global tax on financial transactions, which she plans to discuss at the G20 summit in June. She also announced that the ban on naked short-selling in Germany would last indefinitely, or until the EU agreed on a common regulation.

Spain: Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said the government will raise taxes (AP) for high-income earners to help overcome the country's budget deficit.

TRANSNATIONAL: UN Carbon Market under Pressure

The United Nations faces a devaluation (Bloomberg) of the tradable credits it gives investors that pay for projects to reduce hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, because the EU may favor alternatives like wind farms to fight global warming. UN offsets for 2012 traded at $4.90 a metric ton less than comparable EU permits, almost twice the spread at the end of last year.

 

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