[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily News Brief, May 3, 2010

 

May 3, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Iran, U.S. to Spar at NPT Conference - Kim Jong-Il Reportedly Visiting China - India Convicts Mumbai Attack Gunman - ECB Extends Lifeline to Greece Top of the Agenda: Iran, U.S. to Spar at NPT Conference A global nuclear conference to review the forty-year-old nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty opens today (WashPost). Although Iran is not on the agenda, the country's controversial nuclear program will likely feature prominently, as the United States and Iran seek allies to support their respective positions. The Obama administration hopes to strengthen both the treaty's punishment of violators and its regulation of nuclear fuel supply. Iran is expected to oppose those steps. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will deliver a morning speech, followed by an afternoon address by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Also at issue is a 1995 resolution for a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East, which the United States refused to recommit to at the last NPT review. The U.S. delegation is backed by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (AP), who said last week the "onus is on you [Ahmadinejad]" to prove Iran's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. U.S. and European diplomats will also be working to reach agreement with China and Russia on a fourth round of UN sanctions for Iran. Analysis: In the Wall Street Journal, John Bolton says talk of sanction only affords Iran time and legitimacy. Preemptive military force is the only option. Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, says U.S. nonproliferation efforts should focus on control measures that are more likely to secure bipartisan support and can be implemented without the legal consent of other states. The NPT review conference is likely to yield agreements on strengthening the treaty even if a final consensus declaration is elusive, says arms control expert Daryl Kimball. Background: This Backgrounder looks at fifteen influential countries that will be participating in the NPT review conference, particularly in light of new concerns about Iran and North Korea and disputes between nuclear haves and have-nots. MIDDLE EAST: Middle East Peace Talks to Begin U.S.-brokered indirect Middle East peace talks are likely to resume by Thursday. The White House brought Palestinians back to the table by pledging to consider a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel for building in disputed territory, reports the Wall Street Journal. While the time isn't ripe for an Obama administration peace plan, the White House should try to reignite proximity talks and possibly work to develop terms of reference and a structure for future final status talks, says CFR President Richard Haass. PACIFIC RIM: Kim Jong-Il Reportedly Visiting China North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Il is reportedly en route to China (TimesofLondon), the country's chief supplier of fuel, food, and finance. Nepal: Maoist protesters in Nepal began a nationwide strike (NYT) amid stalled negotiations over a new constitution, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India Convicts Mumbai Attack Gunman An Indian court convicted the sole surviving gunman (Dawn) from the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks for murder and waging war against India. He is expected to receive the death penalty. Afghanistan: A suicide bomber struck a CIA base in eastern Afghanistan (al-Jazeera), the same location that was attacked several months ago. AFRICA: Darfur Rebels Suspend Peace Talks Darfur's most powerful rebel group, the Justice and Equality Movement, said it was suspending peace talks with Sudan's government after months of stalling, reinforcing the chasm between the two sides (Reuters). Rwanda: Media watchdog group Reporters without Borders named Rwanda one of the world's worst offenders against freedom of the press (BBC). AMERICAS: BP Scrambles to Seal Gulf Well British oil giant BP, which is liable for the cleanup of the Gulf oil spill, prepared to install a shut-off valve (NYT) in one of the oil spill's three leaks off the New Orleans coast, as U.S. President Obama visited Louisiana to observe the response efforts. United States: Tens of thousands of demonstrators marched in more than seventy U.S. cities Saturday to protest Arizona's new immigration law (MercoPress), which critics say will lead to ethnic profiling of Arizona Hispanics. Despite the political environment surrounding Senate Democrats' new immigration reform outline, it provides a serious basis for moving forward on a crucial issue, says CFR's Edward Alden. EUROPE: ECB Extends Lifeline to Greece Following the announcement of an EU-IMF bailout package for Greece, the European Central Bank said it would suspend the minimum credit rating required (FT) for Greece to secure funding from the bank on its government-backed assets. Meanwhile, European markets reacted tamely (BBC) to the approval of the $146.2 billion Greek bailout package. The IMF and European leaders have gotten serious about Greece's debt, says CFR's Charles Kupchan. But the crisis also raises concerns about the eurozone's unity. Britain: Britain's Conservative Party extended its lead (WSJ) in opinion polls ahead of Thursday's general election, but the party faces the added challenge of achieving a parliamentary majority.

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