[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily News Brief, May 7, 2010

 

May 7, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Hung Parliament Makes UK Rule Uncertain - Kim Jong-Il: Ready for Nuclear Talks - Russia Releases Ten Somali Pirates - German Parliament OKs Greek Aid Top of the Agenda: Hung Parliament Leaves British Rule Uncertain With results partially tallied, the British Conservative party won the most ministerial positions in the British general election but fell short of a majority, creating the country's first hung parliament in decades (BBC). Conservative leader David Cameron--whose party won 291 seats but was unable to reach the 326 needed to win a majority--will now try to form a government through a coalition. Labour party leader Gordon Brown, whose party has 251 seats so far, is expected to make an offer to form a coalition government with Nick Clegg's Liberal Democratic party, which has 51 seats. Labour and the Lib Dems together would total 317 seats, still short of a majority. Clegg said Conservatives should seek to govern first (WSJ), though the sitting prime minister technically has the first chance to form a winning coalition. The new leader will have to contend with reducing the highest deficit among major world powers; Afghanistan; and staying relevant under India, Brazil, and China's rise. Analysis: In the Telegraph, Nile Gardiner says, given Lib Dems worse-than-expected performance, a Labour-Liberal coalition would be an "insult to democracy and would result in the paralysis and decline of Britain." On ForeignPolicy.com, Renard Sexton says the rise of the Liberal Democrats highlighted the biases of the British electoral system and increased the possibility of reforming it. If the Conservatives emerge from the British elections as the governing party, their skepticism toward European integration could weaken the bloc and its potential as a U.S. partner, writes CFR's Charles Kupchan. MIDDLE EAST: Iran Hosts UN Security Council Dinner Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki hosted a dinner (BBC) for Security Council members in New York, as tensions continue over fresh sanctions against the country's nuclear program. Iran and the United States' dueling speeches at the UN suggest a continued impasse on Iran's nuclear program, says CFR's Ray Takeyh. And Iranian politics make that unlikely to change anytime soon. Israel: Israel said it has no plan to review its nuclear policies (Reuters), downplaying efforts at the UN nonproliferation conference to promote a nuclear-free Middle East. This CFR Backgrounder profiles fifteen countries that will play a role in the Nuclear Nonproliferation conference. PACIFIC RIM: Kim Jong-Il to China: Ready for Nuclear Talks North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il told Chinese President Hu Jintao he is ready restart (Yonhap) stalled international talks on the country's nuclear weapons program. Myanmar: A faction of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition party said it will form its own political party (AP) to contest this year's elections. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Rising IED Threat in Afghanistan The threat from roadside bombs--the biggest killer of NATO troops in Afghanistan--is rising (Reuters), according to U.S. Army Chief of Staff General George Casey. Nepal: The United States called on Nepal's Maoists to end a strike (AFP) that has paralyzed the country, due to concern the standoff could spiral into violence. AFRICA: Russia Releases Ten Somali Pirates Russia released ten Somali pirates (BBC) captured during the rescue of a Russian oil tanker earlier this week. Nigeria: Political jostling to choose a new vice president (ThisDay) has begun in Nigeria following Wednesday's inauguration of Goodluck Jonathan as president. CFR's John Campbell looks at how a power struggle for vice president could pit the Christian south of the country against the predominantly Muslim north (HuffPost). AMERICAS: Oil Slick Reaches Louisiana Wildlife Refuge The massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico reached the Chandeleur Islands off the Louisiana coast, part of the Breton National Wildlife Refuge (BBC). Meanwhile, the companies behind the drilling disaster are starting to blame one another (Reuters). In this podcast, CFR's Michael Levi says the Gulf of Mexico oil spill is not just a problem to clean up; it has serious commercial implications for oil firms and has dimmed the prospects of U.S. climate legislation. United States: U.S. markets fell by more than 9 percent (Bloomberg) on fears about Europe's debt problems and a possible technical glitch, before closing down by more than 3 percent. EUROPE: German Parliament OKs Greek Aid Germany's parliament approved (DeutscheWelle) the $28.4 billion aid packages for eurozone partner Greece ahead of a meeting of eurozone leaders to finalize the Greek deal and address the long-term future of the euro. Greece is at the center of market upheaval over Europe's debt crisis, and the country faces daunting challenges despite a pending bailout. But it should be counted on to muddle through with reforms, writes CFR's Marc Levinson. Inadequate fiscal reforms in Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy have increased the likelihood that Greece's fiscal crisis will spread, threatening Europe's monetary union. This Backgrounder offers fiscal profiles of the five.

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