[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, July 013, 2010

 

July 13, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Iranian Scientist Flees to Pakistan Embassy - Karzai to Investigate NATO Soldiers' Shootings - Al-Shabaab Signals al-Qaeda Ambitions - BP Says New Well Cap Successful Top of the Agenda: Iranian Scientist Flees to Pakistan Embassy An Iranian nuclear scientist (NYT) who Iran claims was kidnapped by the CIA has taken refuge in the Iranian section of Pakistan's Embassy in Washington. The scientist, Shahram Amiri, 32, disappeared during a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia in June 2009. He had worked at Iran's Malek Ashtar University, which is linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards. The U.S. government has never acknowledged Amiri's existence, or admitted to a role in his disappearance. In June 2010, Iran publicized an alleged videotaped statement from Amiri to prove its claim about his disappearance. If true, it's unclear how Amiri escaped his captors to reach the Pakistani Embassy. Other videos of Amiri were released that conflicted with Iran's claim. A spokesman from Pakistan's Foreign Office said Amiri was seeking immediate repatriation to Iran (BBC). U.S. authorities cannot enter Iran's diplomatic premises but could prevent Amiri from leaving. His sudden appearance is a major embarrassment for U.S. spy agencies and could lead to a diplomatic stand-off. Analysis: Administration officials say that if Amiri had been imprisoned (WashPost) by the United States as claimed, he would not have been able to produce any videos. The latest round of UN and U.S. sanctions on Iran are unlikely to push Iran to negotiations, says expert Meghan O'Sullivan, which means the United States and its allies will need to look at options including military force. In the Washington Times, Arnaud de Borchgrave says more politicians and military commanders are conceding the inevitability of U.S. strikes on Iran. Background: This Backgrounder examines Iran's nuclear program. MIDDLE EAST: Israel Releases Report on Flotilla Disaster Israel's first investigation (Guardian) of its deadly assault on an aid flotilla attempting to break the blockade of Gaza found serious mistakes in intelligence and planning but said interception was the only option. PACIFIC RIM: Chinese Employers Competing for Labor Employers in China are being forced to compete (NYT) for new workers and prevent experienced ones from leaving. Demographers predict the supply of young Chinese workers has peaked under stringent family-planning policies and will drop by one-third in the next twelve years. North Korea: North Korea postponed talks (AFP) scheduled for Tuesday with the U.S.-led UN Command about the sinking of a South Korean warship "for administrative reasons." SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Karzai to Investigate NATO Soldier Shootings Afghan President Hamid Karzai ordered an investigation (AP) into reports that at least three British soldiers were killed by an Afghan soldier in southern Afghanistan. Separately, the Afghanistan Rights Monitor said 2010 has been the most violent year in Afghanistan (al-Jazeera) since the U.S.-led invasion began in 2001. Pakistan: Pakistan ordered a crackdown on militants (AFP) after a series of devastating attacks and accusations of the Pakistani government's links to extremist Islamist militant groups. Pakistan's latest moves to exert influence in Afghanistan, including possibly brokering talks with militant Taliban allies, could pose difficulties for U.S. stabilization efforts, says CFR's Daniel Markey. AFRICA: Al-Shabaab Signals Growing al-Qaeda Ambitions The Uganda bombings orchestrated by Somalia's al-Shabaab militia, which killed at least seventy-four people watching the World Cup finals on television Sunday, indicate growing ambitions among al-Qaeda's regional affiliates (WashPost) outside Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq. This Backgrounder examines Somalia as a terrorist haven. Sudan: The International Criminal Court issued a second arrest warrant for Sudan's President (BBC) Omar al-Bashir on charges of genocide. He already faces charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. This Backgrounder examines Sudan's fractured internal politics. AMERICAS: BP Says New Well Cap Successful BP announced it successfully attached a new cap on the gushing oil well (NYT) in the Gulf of Mexico and is preparing to test whether the spill can be halted completely. In the wake of the spill, the United States should craft regional pacts with its neighbors to address pollution and liability issues arising from ever deeper oil and gas exploration, says expert Caitlyn Antrim. Cuba: In one of his first public appearances (NYT) in four years, former Cuban president Fidel Castro warned that the United States was increasing the chances of nuclear war in the Korean Peninsula and Iran. EUROPE: France to Approve Full Veil Ban French lawmakers were set to vote in favor of a ban (AFP) on wearing face-covering veils in public, as Europe toughens its approach to integrating Muslim immigrant communities. EU: The European Commission is proposing a plan to help member countries that oppose genetically modified organisms (EUObserver), while simultaneously allowing countries that favor the technology to move ahead with planting. TRANSNATIONAL: HIV Falling in Affected Countries The prevalence of HIV is falling (Reuters) among young people in sixteen of the twenty-five countries most affected by the disease, according to a new study by the UN AIDS program.

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