[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, July 22, 2010

 

July 22, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Petraeus to Ramp Up Counterinsurgency - N. Korea Warns on War Games - Kosovo's Independence Ruling - Bernanke Predicts Weak Growth Top of the Agenda: Petraeus Ramping Up Counterinsurgency Gen. David Petraeus plans to ramp up the U.S. military's troop-intensive strategy in Afghanistan (WSJ) according to senior military officials. They have concluded that setbacks in the war effort were problems of implementation, not strategy. The officials said Petraeus's predecessor, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, emphasized hunting down Taliban leaders at the expense of the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy, which focuses on protecting civilians and bolstering popular support for the government. The absence of serious progress in Afghanistan (NYT) has created new doubts that Mr. Obama will be able to reach even the scaled-down goals he has set. Among Republicans there's increasing opposition to the war in Afghanistan (USNews), which GOP National Committee Chairman Michael Steele has called "a war of choice." Analysis: CFR President Richard Haass says the United States should scale down its ambitions in Afghanistan, and reduce and redirect its mission there. The most realistic and acceptable model of governance for Afghanistan is decentralized democracy and a system of internal mixed sovereignty, argues this Foreign Affairs essay. Background: In this 2009 speech, President Obama lays out his strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. PACIFIC RIM: N. Korea Warns on War Games North Korea warned the United States and South Korea (AP) to call off military exercises scheduled for this weekend and to back off any new sanctions or risk placing the entire region in danger. The Obama administration should mount a more vigorous effort against North Korea's nuclear weapons program, argues Korea expert Charles L. (Jack) Pritchard in this CFR interview. Pritchard co-chaired a recent CFR independent task force report on Korea. China: Security forces fired indiscriminately on Tibetan protesters in 2008, a Human Rights Watch report says, refuting the government's claims it acted with restraint. The report is based on eyewitness accounts of China's crackdown. EUROPE: Kosovo Faces Independence Ruling The International Court of Justice is will rule today on whether Kosovo's 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia (NYT) was legal. The decision could set a precedent for separatist regions around the world and is expected to renew pressure for resuming talks between Belgrade and Pristina about Kosovo's future status. Kosovo's independence is recognized by 69 UN members, mainly Western European countries and the United States. Serbia and Russia are opposed to it. This is a chronology of events since Feb. 17, 2008, when Kosovo declared independence (Reuters). Germany: Chancellor Angela Merkel faces record-low approval ratings (DeutscheWelle), a string of high-profile resignations within her party's inner circle, and growing public discord over a eurozone debt crisis and the perceived prospect of Germany "bailing out" other countries in the monetary union. MIDDLE EAST: Iran's Double Agent? Iran: The regime claims that Shahram Amiri (Fars News), the Iranian scientist the CIA claims was an informant, was in fact a double agent who has provided Tehran with valuable information about the CIA. Al-Qaeda militants (WashPost) killed five soldiers in an ambush in southern Yemen today, a Yemeni security official said. Rebels in the north fought with army units and government-allied tribes, killing at least 20. Yemen is under increased U.S. scrutiny amid concerns that it could become a hotbed for al-Qaeda-based international terrorism, says this CFR Backgrounder on Yemen. But some experts say U.S. counterterrorism involvement could provoke a negative backlash. AFRICA: Chad Will Not Arrest Bashir The Chad government says it will not arrest Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir (BBC), in the country for a meeting of a regional bloc, despite the International Court's request that he be detained on charges of genocide and warm crimes. Somalia: African Union peacekeepers are indiscriminately shelling residential areas of Somalia's capital, according to internal AU reports (AP). The reports were compiled months before al-Shabaab militants claimed they carried out the recent bombings in Uganda, which they said were to avenge civilian deaths caused by AU soldiers. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India's Banks Accused of Discrimination State-owned banks in India are discriminating against India's Muslim minorities (BBC), says India's National Commission on Minorities, which reports a 100 percent increase in complaints that Muslims haven't been able to open accounts in state-run banks. AMERICAS: Bernanke Calls Outlook 'Uncertain' Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, predicting weaker growth and calling the economic outlook (WSJ) "unusually uncertain," told Congress he is prepared to take further action to support the economy if the outlook deteriorates. President Barack Obama signed into law a sweeping overhaul of U.S. financial-market regulations (WSJ), marking the conclusion of an effort to craft a legislative response to the 2008 financial crisis. Haiti: The International Monetary Fund agreed to cancel Haiti's $268 million outstanding debt (BloombergBusinessWeek) and approved a $60 million, three-year loan to boost central bank reserves as the country rebuilds its economy after a January earthquake. In this CFR brief, Haiti expert Kara McDonald says short term goals like shelter and job creation must complement a wider state-building strategy.

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