Monday, November 23, 2009

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, November 23, 2009

 

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

November 23, 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Iran begins air defense exercises.
- Palestinian groups deny CLAIMS OF ceasefire agreement.
- Afghanistan announces security forces increase.
- U.S. healthcare reform moves to Senate floor.

Top of the Agenda: Iran Air Defense Exercises

Iran's military launched a week-long simulation (WashPost) of air defense exercises as tensions rise with the West over its nuclear program. The drills began Sunday as Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency Ali Asghar Soltanieh stressed that Iran needs guarantees that it will receive nuclear fuel on time before it agrees to the uranium swap proposed by the West.

Iranian officials said the exercises were a response to possible attacks (al-Jazeera) on the country's nuclear facilities. In an announcement Saturday, head of Iran's army air defense Ahmad Mighani said, "It is our duty to defend our nation's vital facilities, and thus these maneuvers cover Bushehr, Fars, Isfahan, Tehran and western provinces."

The military exercise came as a top clerical official said Iran would retaliate at "the heart of Tel Aviv" (AP) if Israel attacked Iran, after Israel warned it would consider military action to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons Israel's military and government refused to comment.

Analysis

In Time, Robin Wright says Iran's opposition Green Movement is complicating talks over Iran's nuclear program by reaching out to the United States for help.

In an interview, CFR's Iran expert Ray Takeyh says Washington's Iran policy needs to frame the nuclear development question within the context of a broader range of diplomatic issues, and that Iran's domestic turmoil hinders negotiations on its nuclear program.

In the Washington Post, Joseph Cirincione outlines five myths that must be dispelled before a strategy to contain Iran's nuclear program can successfully move forward.

Background

A CFR Backgrounder examines Iran's nuclear program.

MIDDLE EAST: Gaza Ceasefire

Several armed Palestinian groups in Gaza have denied claims (al-Jazeera) that an agreement was reached to stop firing rockets into Israel, after Hamas announced a ceasefire on Saturday.

PACIFIC RIM: Philippines Attack

Twenty-one politicians and journalists, abducted in the Philippines as they went to file a nomination for local elections, have been found dead (SydneyMorningHerald).

Thailand-Cambodia: Tensions are rising between Thailand and Cambodia after Cambodia's government appointed former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra an economic adviser and refuses to extradite him (GlobalTimes).

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India-U.S.Visit

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh arrives in Washington D.C. Monday for a four-day trip aimed at boosting ties (al-Jazeera) between the two countries.

A CFR Backgrounder examines the U.S.-India nuclear deal.

Afghanistan: The Afghan government announced plans to boost its security forces to 400,000 from its current 100,000, prompting skepticism from diplomats and military experts, who feel Afghanistan lacks the resources for such an ambitious proposal (AFP).

AFRICA: Somali Pirates

Somalia's al Shabaab Islamists, who are fighting the government and African Union peacekeepers to impose Muslim law throughout the country, seized a southern Somali town from rival insurgents, killing at least twelve (Reuters).

Sudan: Sudan says it will delay the country's first multi-party election (SudanTribune) in twenty-four years by six days to permit more voters to register.

AMERICAS: U.S. Healthcare

Senate Democrats voted to bring healthcare reform to the Senate floor (WSJ) for full debate, where they will take on divisive issues including the government-sponsored health insurance plan, abortion, increased spending, and unemployment.

A CFR Backgrounder looks at healthcare costs and U.S. competitiveness.

Brazil: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad begins his visit Monday to Brazil as part of a multi-nation tour (MercoPress) of South America intended to boost ties in the region and bolster already-strong support for its nuclear program.

EUROPE: Romanian Presidential Election

Romania's presidential election will go to a runoff vote (DeutscheWelle) after incumbent Traian Basescu pulled ahead of his main rival, Mircea Geoana, by a slim margin .

EU: Several EU member states will meet with European Commission officials and representatives from General Motors Monday after a decision by GM not to sell (EUObserver) a majority stake in its European arm caused tensions over state aid to the firm.

TRANSNATIONAL: Climate Change and Global Security

In the New Republic, Bradford Plumer examines the relationship between global warming and violent conflict and whether climate change should be part of national security policy.
 

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