Tuesday, April 13, 2010

[RED DEMOCRATICA] CFR.org Daily Brief, April 13, 2010

 

From the Council on Foreign Relations

April 13, 2010

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

-China Pledges Support on Iran Sanctions
-Hu to Obama: Yuan Reform on Own Terms
-Kyrgyz President Seeks Safety Guarantee
-Sudan to Extend Voting by Two Days

Top of the Agenda: China Pledges Support on Iran Sanctions

U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed to work together (NYT) on a new package of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, but Hu made no specific commitments on measures the United States wants to impose. Obama addressed China's concern that, if sanctions were imposed, Iran could cut off its much-needed oil supply, saying he would ensure that China's oil supply remained steady if China joined in severe sanctions. In the past, China has agreed to efforts to address Iran's nuclear program and then used Security Council negotiations to dilute the measures enacted.

Ma Zhaoxu, a spokesman for the Chinese delegation, was more cautious about the agreement, suggesting that China and the United States still differ (WashPost) on elements of a sanctions resolution.

Analysis:

A Wall Street Journal editorial says terrorists, a main focus of the nuclear summit, are not likely to get their hands on nuclear weapons. Iran and North Korea should be the summit's focus instead.

On the Daily Beast, Gordon Chang says Hu's presence at the nuclear summit proves China is "more bluster than bite."

The summit in Washington may produce commitment to a plan for securing nuclear materials, largely because of Obama's willingness to commit the U.S. to nonproliferation and disarmament goals, says expert Tanya Ogilvie-White.

Background:

This CFR interactive nuclear energy guide examines the past, present, and future of nuclear energy.

Check out expert analysis and background resources from CFR on nuclear nonproliferation, security, and treaties.

MIDDLE EAST: Israel to Reject U.S. Peace Talk Timeline

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government said it would reject (WSJ) any attempt by the United States to set a timeline and benchmarks for Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

Iran: Iran, which was not invited to the nuclear summit in Washington, said it would not be bound (CSMonitor) by any decision made there and is preparing its own counter-proliferation summit next weekend.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard will likely be the target of Security Council sanctions that could be ready within weeks, says expert Kenneth Katzman, while Congress focuses on preventing U.S. companies from selling gasoline and refining equipment to Iran.

PACIFIC RIM: Hu Tells Obama Yuan Reform on Own Terms

Chinese President Hu told Obama the Chinese exchange rate reform will be according to its own needs (WSJ) and not foreign pressure, adding that letting the yuan appreciate against the dollar is not a solution to bilateral trade imbalances.

This CFR Backgrounder examines the China-U.S. economic imbalance.

Read CFR's Asia Unbound blog, featuring timely analysis from CFR's Asia experts.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Kyrgyz President Seeks Safety Guarantee

Kyrgyzstan's ousted President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has said he will resign (BBC) if the interim government guarantees his and his family's safety.

In this CFR podcast, CFR's Evan Feigenbaum says the fundamental challenge facing Kyrgyzstan's interim government "is to restore and sustain order but then set the country back on a path to democracy."

Pakistan: Pakistan's senate began considering (al-Jazeera) a bill to strip the Pakistani president's powers to dissolve parliament and appoint military chiefs and judges.

AFRICA: Sudan to Extend Voting by Two Days

South Sudanese officials say poor logistics prevented (Reuters) hundreds of thousands of southerners from voting in elections, with some early turnout figures below 10 percent. The Sudanese court said it would extend voting (WSJ) by two days.

This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memo presents the likely triggers of renewed civil war in Sudan and discusses the U.S. policy options for preventing it from happening and mitigating its consequences.

Congo: Eight Red Cross staff were kidnapped (BBC) by a rebel group in eastern Congo's South Kivu province.

AMERICAS: Latin American-Vatican Relationship at Risk

In Latin America, the response to allegations of sexual abuse of children by Roman Catholic priests has been muted relative to the recent firestorm in Europe. But doubts about the Vatican could spread, the Christian Science Monitor reports.

Mercosur: The Latin American trade bloc Mercosur is expecting "dialogue contributions" from the European Union to decide on negotiations (MercoPress) for a political and trade agreement initiated a decade ago.

EUROPE: Greece Bond Sale Boosted by Bailout

Greece sold $2.12 billion (FT) in six-month and one-year debt, more than what it planned to offer after the IMF and European Union announced a bailout deal this weekend.

Bosnia: Former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic's war crimes trial in the International Criminal Tribunal resumed (DeutscheWelle) in the Hague.

TRANSNATIONAL: Global Economic Recovery Status

In a new Peterson Institute paper (PDF), Michael Mussa boosts his forecast of global real GDP growth in 2010 to 4.5 percent and projects roughly the same for 2011, indicating a V-shaped recovery is underway.

 

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